It’s once again time for our Underdog 10x play of the week! And once again – because we love life – we’re going with all overs.
Let’s get right to it, heading to Cleveland to get this party started.
NFL Week 8 Main Slate Parlay – 10X Value Picks
We like Jameis Winston to go higher than 224.5 passing yards in his first start of the season for the Browns.
Put simply, Winston plays as if his hair is on fire. The man just throws. And throws. And throws some more.
Last time he started an NFL game was the first three weeks of the 2022 season for the Saints. He exceeded 224.5 yards each time.
In 2021? Six starts for the Saints, three times he went higher.
How about 2020? Well, no starts, but in 2019 for the Bucs, he went higher 12 out of 16 times.
Obviously, past performance does not guarantee future results, but he’s set up nicely at home against the Ravens, who have been downright dreadful against the pass this year, giving up 308.4 yards through the air per game, nearly 20 yards worse than the Jaguars at 288.8 Further complicating matters for the Ravens, Marlon Humphrey, their best cornerback, is injured and probably won’t suit up.
So yes, that’s leg one: Winston over 224.5 passing yards.
Speaking of those Jaguars … they do lead the league in giving up the most touchdown passes , with 16, which leads to our second play: Packers quarterback Jordan Love, higher than 2.0 passing touchdowns.
To be clear: This means Love has to throw a trio of touchdowns, but again – and allow us to repeat the “past performance, future results” bit – but Love has three or more touchdown passes in three out of his five starts this year, and did it five out of 17 times last year. This is no slam dunk, but the Jags have just been toasted by passing games this year. Love will eat, it’s just a question of getting those touchdown passes.
Third up is Jets running back Breece Hall, who we love to go higher than 28.5 receiving yards.
Bottom line, that number is too low. He’s crushed that number five out of seven times this year, and since the firing of Robert Saleh, Hall is getting nearly all the running back snaps. And with them, all the running back targets, with 15 over the last two weeks (which he has turned into 159 yards).
On top of Hall’s talent, the Patriots have given up over 33 yards per game in receptions to running backs this year, good for ninth-worst in the NFL.
And finally … we go to Denver, where Javonte Williams rushing yards is set at 62.5, and we love the higher.
This one writes itself: In 13 of 19 games where Williams has received 14 or more carries, he’s cleared this number.
Assuming this game goes as scripted – namely, the Broncos dominating the Bryce Young-led Panthers at home – Williams will get more than 14 carries.
Compounding matters, the Panthers have the worst rush defense in the league, giving up 161.9 yards on the ground per game. They’re also tied with giving up the most rush attempts, at 242.
NFL Week 8 Picks
Jameis Winston Higher Than 224.5 Passing Yards
Jordan Love Higher Than 2.0 Passing Touchdowns
Breece Hall Higher Than 28.5 Receiving Yards
Javonte Williams Higher Than 62.5 Rushing Yards
10X on Underdog
As a reminder, this is a longer-shot combo of picks that carries more risk but a higher return if all hit. Good luck with all of your NFL plays in Week 8!
