Sam Pasco

NFL Week 7 Key Injuries & Top Value Targets

Oct 14, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Allen Lazard (10) reacts after catching a pass for a first down against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at MetLife Stadium.
Image Credit: Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images

This week’s NFL slate is full of intriguing matchups, but key injuries create opportunities in the player prop betting market. By analyzing recent injury reports, team performances, and individual player prop trends, we can uncover high-value bets.

Here, we’ll dive into three games where injuries could shift the game dynamics and open up valuable betting opportunities. 

NFL Week 7 Injury Report: Top Value Player Prop Targets

Sam Pasco analyses three key matchups in Week 7 and breaks down his best bets.

Game 1: Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts 

Overview of the Game 

The Colts host the Dolphins, with Indianapolis entering as a 3-point favorite. The Dolphins’ offensive struggles are magnified by the absence of QB Tua Tagovailoa, who remains on the injured reserve, leaving Tyler Huntley at the helm.

Indianapolis is without star running back Jonathan Taylor due to an ankle injury, and QB Anthony Richardson, coming off an injury, faces questions about his efficiency. With both teams struggling offensively, the total points line is set at 43.5. 

Injury Impact and Prop Betting Opportunities 

With Jonathan Taylor sidelined, the Colts’ running game will shift to Tyler Goodson, who should see the bulk of the carries. The Dolphins’ 19th-ranked run defense presents an exploitable opportunity. Betting on Goodson’s rushing yards prop could be a value play, especially if Trey Sermon (knee) is limited or ruled out.

Additionally, Anthony Richardson’s recent trend of staying under on passing attempts (26.5) and total yardage (237.5) reflects the Colts’ reliance on the run game, making his passing unders attractive. 

Best Bets: 

  • Tyler Goodson Over on rushing yards (Prop line likely around 50.5) 
  • Anthony Richardson Under 237.5 passing + rushing yards (-115) 

Game 2: Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders 

Overview of the Game 

The Rams, coming off a bye week, face a Raiders team that has struggled mightily. Las Vegas is without WR Davante Adams after trading him, and WR Jakobi Meyers is doubtful with an ankle injury.

Rams WR Cooper Kupp is expected to be a game-time decision as he recovers from an ankle injury, which could significantly impact the Rams’ passing game.

Injury Impact and Prop Betting Opportunities 

With Kupp’s availability uncertain, RB Kyren Williams is poised to be a focal point of the Rams’ offense. Williams has scored in five straight games, and the Raiders rank 24th against the run, allowing 140.3 rushing yards per game. Kyren Williams to score a touchdown anytime is a strong bet.

If Kupp plays but is limited, Matthew Stafford’s tendency to throw short could benefit Williams in the passing game, making Williams’ receptions or receiving yards another strong prop to consider. 

On the Raiders’ side, rookie tight end Brock Bowers will likely see increased targets in the absence of Adams, especially with Meyers potentially out. His receptions over (likely 4.5) should be a top prop to target. 

Best Bets: 

  • Kyren Williams Anytime TD 
  • Brock Bowers Over 4.5 receptions 

Game 3: New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers 

Overview of the Game 

The Sunday night matchup between the Jets and Steelers is highlighted by the return of WR Davante Adams for the Jets, following his trade from the Raiders. The Steelers, meanwhile, are poised to start veteran QB Russell Wilson, replacing Justin Fields.

With both teams boasting top-10 defenses, this game is expected to be a low-scoring, defensive battle. 

Injury Impact and Prop Betting Opportunities 

For the Jets, Aaron Rodgers has established rapport with WR Allen Lazard, who quietly leads the team with five receiving touchdowns. With Davante Adams commanding attention from Pittsburgh’s secondary, Lazard could be a sneaky pick to score again. His Anytime TD prop is worth a look, especially in red-zone situations. 

On the Steelers’ side, Najee Harris remains their workhorse in the run game, but his lack of touchdowns and Russell Wilson’s weaker mobility compared to Fields could make Harris’ rushing attempts over (likely 17.5) a solid bet.

With Wilson at the helm, expect more emphasis on the ground game, especially with the Jets’ defense excelling against the pass. 

Best Bets: 

  • Allen Lazard Anytime TD 
  • Najee Harris Over 17.5 rushing attempts 

For a more complete look at this week’s most important injuries, check out the embedded tweet below:

Injury news opens up valuable prop betting opportunities this week. Here’s a recap of the top picks: 

  • Tyler Goodson Over on rushing yards (around 50.5 come kick-off most likely)
  • Anthony Richardson Under 237.5 total yards 
  • Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-200) 
  • Brock Bowers Over 4.5 receptions 
  • Allen Lazard Anytime TD (+180) 
  • Najee Harris Over 17.5 rushing attempts 

Take advantage of these injury-driven props for potential value on Sunday!