Once more, into the breach, my friends.
It’s the wacky Week 18 of the NFL season, but we are once again going to attempt to pull off the most magical of feats, the Underdog 10x pick.
And if you’ve been following this space, you know the one rule we follow here: We love life, so overs need only apply.
NFL Week 18 Main Slate Parlay – 10X Value Picks
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We’re going to lean into the narrative here and blast off with Mike Evans, higher than 97.5 receiving yards.
It’s a big number, but consider: If Evans gets five catches and at least 85 yards, he picks up another $3 million in contract incentives.
Furthermore, those 85 yards gets would get him to 1,000 yards, which would tie Jerry Rice for most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with 11.
Oh, and the Bucs need to win the game to win the NFC South and go to the playoffs. And he’s going up against the Saints. It can’t line up better for Evans. It’s almost a must-play, even at the 97.5 number.
Moving on, let’s add Bijan Robinson to the card, higher than 114.5 rushing against the Panthers.
The Falcons are in must-win territory, as they need to hope for a Bucs loss to go along with their win.
Since the Falcons Week 12 bye, Robinson has only hit this number twice in five tries, but each time he’s missed it’s been by less than 16 yards, and he’s had touch counts of 32, 24, 24, 24, and 22. He will get fed this week, and against the historically bad Panthers rush D – they’ve given up 179 yards a game, and over 200(!) on average over the last three – Robinson should get there.
Next up is Malik Nabers to go higher than 6.5 receptions against the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles have nothing to play for, are resting starters left and right. On top of that, it’s clear Brian Daboll and Co. want to go out on a high note – see last week’s offensive explosion against the Colts – and Nabers is battling Brock Bowers for the most rookie receptions in NFL history.
Add to the fact Nabers has seen double-digit targets in 10 of 14 games this year (with 8 being the lowest) and it would certainly seem like Nabers should get to his number.
Lastly, and much like the Nabers call, let’s go with Brian Thomas Jr. to go over 79.5 receiving yards. He’s beaten this number six out his last seven games, with his miss coming a mere four yards short.
Thomas Jr. hasn’t seen less than 10 targets over the last five games, and he’s facing a Colts team that just got picked apart by Drew Lock and Giants. This one feels 10 yards too low.
NFL Week 18 Picks
Mike Evans higher than 97.5 receiving yards
Bijan Robinson higher than 114.5 rushing and receiving yards
Malik Nabers higher than 6.5 receptions
Brian Thomas Jr. higher than 79.5 receiving yards
10x at Underdog
As a reminder, this is a longer-shot combo of picks that carries more risk but a higher return if all hit. Good luck with all of your NFL plays in Week 18!
