If there’s football on Sunday, we are here with an Underdog 10x play, and as usual – because we love life and hate rooting for “lower than’s” – we’re going higher, higher, higher, and higher again.
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We start with Russell Wilson higher than 1.5 passing touchdowns, and we get a bit of a boost here at 1.1x.
This is a perfect set-up for Wilson, as Evan Silva noted over at ETR. Wilson, per PFF, is the number one-rated passer on throws more than 15 yards, and the Browns give up the second-most yards per pass attempt and have given up the third-most 20+ yard completions.
In short: Wilson was built to attack the Browns’ defense, and we expect him to do just that.
Next up, to Minnesota, where we’re getting another slight boost, this one at 1.05x – Justin Jefferson, higher than 0.5 rushing and receiving touchdowns.
This is a perfect set-up for Jefferson against a Falcons backend. It’s made even more juicy by our old friend, positive touchdown regression. The NFL’s best wideout hasn’t hit paydirt since October 20, after starting the year with scores in five out of six games. He’s getting in the paint this week.
From here, let’s go to Tampa, where we’ll take a haircut on the multiplier – 0.94 – to grab Jakobi Meyers of the Raiders going higher than 5.5 receptions.
He’s exceeded that number in six out of his last seven games, the Raiders can’t run the ball, and the Bucs are a pass funnel. This one is a lay-up.
Lastly, to sunny Miami, and De’Von Achane to go higher than 91.5 rushing and receiving yards.
Achane is the engine of this offense, and in games where Tua Tagovailoa played, Achane is five out of eight in going higher than this number. While he hasn’t done it in two weeks, we like his chances to do it at home against a demoralized Jets squad.
All told, this comes in at 10.85x on Underdog NFL.
NFL Week 14 Picks
Russell Wilson higher than 1.5 touchdown passes
Justin Jefferson higher than 0.5 touchdowns
Jakobi Meyers higher than 5.5 receptions
De’Von Achane higher than 91.5 rushing and receiving yards
10x at Underdog
As a reminder, this is a longer-shot combo of picks that carries more risk but a higher return if all hit. Good luck with all of your NFL plays in Week 14!