Each week, we aim to think outside the box of standard player props articles with the utilization of various advanced metrics. We’ve done the research and have our NFL Week 12 free picks and our top expert bets ready to roll for Sunday, November 22!
Best DFS Apps in All States
NFL Week 12 Free Picks – Sunday, November 23
The goal will be to find some of the best-fitting “puzzle pieces” for that particular week, players whose skill sets and strengths – as corroborated by the numbers in various pertinent categories – dovetail very well with the weaknesses of the opposing defense.
Expert Bet: TreVeyon Henderson Higher Than 72.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Henderson is admittedly in an interesting position this week, as Rhamondre Stevenson appears on track to return from his two-game absence due to a toe injury.
While that does lend an element of risk to any Henderson props, what the rookie did with his opportunity the last two games – 33 carries for 209 yards and four touchdowns, along with a 6-34-1 receiving line – and the matchup against the Bengals defense that lends credence to the notion he could retain a significant enough role to allow him to cash this prop.
The Bengals are allowing 5.4 RB yards per carry, along with a 5.38 adjusted line yards per tote as well. Cincinnati also ranks last in stuffed rate (11%), next to last in second-level yards per carry (1.49), and 27th in open-field yards per carry (1.13). That doesn’t bode well against a back with 4.43 speed who has a pair of 40+ yard runs.
Henderson is gaining 76.8% of his yards after first contact – which equates to 3.8 yards after first contact per carry – and he’s also sporting an 86.7% catch rate.
Henderson has a 26-165-1 receiving line overall, and the Bengals are surrendering the third-most catches (55) and second-most receiving yards (486) to running backs, so the matchup is also pretty close to ideal in that aspect as well.
Expert Bet: Jahmyr Gibbs Higher Than 59.5 Rushing Yards
- I’m also on: Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Higher Than 18.5 Yards
Speaking of explosive backs in favorable matchups Sunday, Gibbs certainly qualifies. The third-year back is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has taken seven of his carries for 20+ yards, including three for 40+.
Gibbs’ usage on the ground can vary from week to week, but he does have double-digit carries in eight of his last nine games. Detroit is also a massive 12.5-point favorite with Jaxson Dart (concussion) now ruled out for the Giants, so game script shouldn’t be an issue.
The Giants are yielding an NFL-high 5.74 RB yards per carry, and they hold No. 32 and No. 31 rankings in second-level (1.57) and open-field yards (1.51) allowed per carry, respectively. Gibbs is a back perfectly suited to take advantage of those weaknesses, given he runs behind a line facilitating 4.84 RB yards per carry, along with the fourth-most open-field yards per tote (1.27).
Gibbs is also sporting an elite 23.6% broken-tackle rate, which makes him a particularly dangerous opponent for this porous defense.
Free NFL Week 12 Picks: Jaylen Warren Higher Than 58.5 Rushing Yards
Warren is already averaging a crisp 5.0 yards per carry since the Steelers’ Week 5 bye, and after dealing with an ankle issue earlier in the week, he practiced in full Friday to go into the weekend without any injury designation.
That sets up the veteran back for another efficient performance, as he’s facing a Bears defense that’s been vulnerable to the run all season and now heads into Week 12 without its three starting linebackers. All of Tremaine Edmunds (groin), T.J. Edwards (hand/hamstring) and Noah Sewell (elbow) will sit out for Chicago, making the matchup even juicier than usual.
The Bears are already surrendering 4.95 RB yards per carry while holding No. 26 rankings in both second-level (1.37) and open-field (1.06) yards per carry. Warren has an outstanding 24.4% broken-tackle rate and is averaging an impressive 3.3 yards per carry after first contact as well.
Warren has also eclipsed 58.5 rushing yards in four of nine contests, and if Mason Rudolph is under center instead of Aaron Rodgers (wrist), we could see Pittsburgh go even more run-heavy than usual.
Rome Odunze Best Bets: Higher Than 3.5 Receptions
Odunze’s fortunes often go as Caleb Williams’ erratic passing does, but the 2024 first-round pick is undoubtedly a premium talent who has the ability to deliver a spike performance on any given week.
That’s only truly happened twice this season in the form of 128- and 114-yard efforts against the Lions and Ravens, but we don’t even need that much from him Sunday to make good on this prop. Odunze has already recorded at least four receptions in five of 10 contests, and he’s now in a matchup that could very well facilitate a sixth occasion.
The Steelers have been very generous to WR1s, allowing an NFL-high 85.9 receiving yards per game to the position on 10.2 targets per contest. Pittsburgh has given up an NFL-high 152 receptions to wideouts as well, and while the Steelers are playing man at the eighth-highest rate (38.4%), Odunze is averaging a robust 2.5 yards per route run versus that coverage.
George Pickens Best Bets Today
- George Pickens Higher Than 4.5 Receptions
- George Pickens Higher Than 64.5 Receiving Yards
Pickens made headlines for both good and not-so-good reasons in Week 11, but the former certainly made the latter a distant memory in the span of four quarters against the Raiders on Monday night. After an opening-series benching, Pickens went on to post a 9-144-1 line on 11 targets, his third 100-yard effort since Week 4.
Pickens has recorded at least five receptions in seven of 10 games, and he’s been over 64.5 receiving in eight contests overall. The talented wideout is now facing an Eagles squad that’s allowed an NFC-high 72.1 receiving yards per game to WR2s, and Philly, despite it’s defensive success of late, has surrendered 13.1 yards per catch to wideouts and 12.0 yards per completion in the last three contests.
Additionally, while the Eagles are playing man coverage at the third-highest rate (44.0%), Pickens is averaging 2.8 yards per route run versus man, including 4.1 in the last five.
