We are already in October, and the trade talks are heating up around the NFL. Will there be an Alvin Kamara trade? How about a Russell Wilson trade?
Sam Pasco takes a look at the Kalshi markets regarding certain NFL players being dealt before the deadline this season.
Will NFL stars Alvin Kamara and Russell Wilson be traded?
The Setup:
The 2025 NFL season has gone off-script. The Chiefs are 3–3, the Colts are 5–1, and suddenly everyone’s a buyer or a seller.
As front offices start taking calls, Kalshi’s “Pro Football Players Traded Before Deadline” board has turned into a live thermometer for panic, patience, and playoff desperation.
The New York Giants are apparently open for QB business — dangling Russell Wilson (98%) and Jameis Winston (48%) as trade chips — while New Orleans looks ready to hit reset, with Cameron Jordan (92%) and Alvin Kamara (65%, +63) leading their fire sale odds.
Elsewhere, A.J. Brown (36%, +33) headlines Philly’s potential shake-up, and the Bengals’ Trey Hendrickson (10%) sits in the “if they lose two more” zone.
What People Are Saying:
- On a Russell Wilson trade: Giants’ patience has run out — and his $53M salary isn’t helping. The move feels inevitable, even if they have to eat cash to get it done.
- On an Alvin Kamara trade: Market makers love a redemption arc. Despite whispers of wear and tear, he’s drawn interest from RB-starved contenders. Could the Chargers come knocking?
- On a Cameron Jordan trade: At 92%, he’s effectively priced as gone. Saints veterans are the closest thing to an “everything must go” sale in the NFL.
The Market Picture:
| Player | Team | Chance | Yes | No |
| Russell Wilson | NYG | 98% | 95¢ | 98¢ |
| Cameron Jordan | NO | 92% | 96¢ | 95¢ |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 65% 🔼63 | 50¢ | 97¢ |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | 48% | 94¢ | 90¢ |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | 36% 🔼33 | 36¢ | 98¢ |
| Trey Hendrickson | CIN | 10% | 85¢ | 90¢ |
| Riq Woolen | SEA | 10% | 85¢ | 90¢ |
| DJ Moore | CHI | 2% | 90¢ | 98¢ |
Total volume: $77K, led by Kamara and Brown markets.
Bull vs Bear Case
Bull case (Alvin Kamara Trade):
The Saints’ direction screams rebuild, and contenders could be calling. Kamara’s versatility — even if fading — fits perfectly for a playoff rental. The +63 jump shows sharp conviction.
Bear case (Alvin Kamara Trade):
He hasn’t looked explosive in years. Cap hit, age, and injuries could make him a harder sell than the odds suggest. Some front offices will wait for a cheaper option.
Pick:
The sharpest value on the board is Yes on Alvin Kamara at 50¢. The Saints’ veterans are on borrowed time, and Kamara’s trade chatter has real legs — his odds could push 80% by next week.
