Results from the NFL’s slate of Week 18 games didn’t just complete the league’s playoff puzzle. They also settled a handful of NFL season win totals that were undecided heading into the finale of the first-ever 17-game season.
Sure, certain teams had already fallen short of their insanely low expectations prior to Week 18 (we’re looking at you, Jacksonville). And others (like the Bengals and Titans) had already blown past their preseason projections. However, bettors holding NFL win total tickets for several squads were teetering on the edge of their seats this past Sunday, as game results determined whether those tickets would end up as cash or trash.
In the end, per BetMGM’s closing NFL regular-season win totals, 10 of 32 teams went Over their total; 18 teams stayed Under; and four pushed.
Below is a breakdown of results on 2021-22 NFL season win totals at BetMGM, followed by a recap from both the bettors’ and bookmakers’ perspectives.
NFL Regular Season Win Totals
| Team | Final Record | Win Total | Win Total Result |
| Bears | 6-11 | 7.5 | UNDER |
| Bengals | 10-7 | 6.5 | OVER |
| Bills | 11-6 | 11 | PUSH |
| Broncos | 7-10 | 8.5 | UNDER |
| Browns | 8-9 | 10.5 | UNDER |
| Buccaneers | 13-4 | 12 | OVER |
| Cardinals | 11-6 | 8.5 | OVER |
| Chargers | 9-8 | 9.5 | UNDER |
| Chiefs | 12-5 | 12.5 | UNDER |
| Colts | 9-8 | 9 | PUSH |
| Cowboys | 12-5 | 9.5 | OVER |
| Dolphins | 9-8 | 9.5 | UNDER |
| Eagles | 9-8 | 6.5 | OVER |
| Falcons | 7-10 | 7.5 | UNDER |
| 49ers | 10-7 | 10.5 | UNDER |
| Giants | 4-13 | 7 | UNDER |
| Jaguars | 3-14 | 6.5 | UNDER |
| Jets | 4-13 | 6 | UNDER |
| Lions | 3-13-1 | 5 | UNDER |
| Packers | 13-4 | 10.5 | OVER |
| Panthers | 5-12 | 7.5 | UNDER |
| Patriots | 10-7 | 9.5 | OVER |
| Raiders | 10-7 | 7 | OVER |
| Rams | 12-5 | 10.5 | OVER |
| Ravens | 8-9 | 10.5 | UNDER |
| Saints | 9-8 | 9 | PUSH |
| Seahawks | 7-10 | 10 | UNDER |
| Steelers | 9-7-1 | 8.5 | OVER |
| Texans | 4-13 | 4 | PUSH |
| Titans | 12-5 | 9 | OVER |
| Vikings | 8-9 | 8.5 | UNDER |
| Washington | 7-10 | 8.5 | UNDER |
Odds/results via BetMGM
Down The Stretch They Come
The most interesting Week 18 contest in the NFL season win totals market took place in Atlanta. The Falcons needed a victory to clear their 7.5 number, while the Saints needed a victory to hit their win total of 9. New Orleans prevailed 30-20 to secure a push for all BetMGM bettors who were on the Saints’ win total — and secure a win for those who were on Falcons Under 7.5.
In Buffalo, the Bills — who started the season 4-1 and appeared a cinch to finish with more than 11 victories — had to beat the woeful Jets in the season finale just to push their win-total number. Although things got a bit dicey in the second half, Buffalo pulled away for a 27-10 victory. That kept Bills Under bettors from cashing a winner and allowed Bills Over bettors to escape with a refund.
Other on-field results that impacted NFL season win totals in Week 18:
— The Buccaneers overcame a shaky start at home and torched the Panthers 41-17. With that, Tom Brady and crew crept Over their 12.5 win total.
— Houston, which entered the season with by far the lowest win total in the league at 4, reached that number following consecutive victories over the Jaguars and Chargers in Weeks 15 and 16. However, the Texans couldn’t snatch win No. 5, as they fell at the 49ers 23-7 in Week 17, then came up short against the Titans at home, losing 28-25.
— The Chargers started out 8-5 but arrived in Las Vegas on Sunday night needing a victory to get Over their 9.5 win total. They also needed a victory or a tie to get into the playoffs. Didn’t happen, as the Chargers went full Chargers, losing 35-32 at the gun in overtime.
— Like the Chargers, Indianapolis needed a Week 18 victory to secure a playoff berth and clear its season win total (9). Unlike the Chargers, the Colts faced the NFL’s worst team in the Jaguars. And yet, like the Chargers, Indy crashed in spectacular fashion, losing 26-11. With that, the Colts’ playoff dreams — and Colts Over 9 wins tickets — went up in smoke (although Colts Under bettors got a reprieve).
Underwhelming Projections
Some seasons, oddsmakers are as sharp as an ice pick when it comes to setting NFL win totals. Other times, they’re less accurate than a rookie quarterback. This season? It was a mixed bag.
Of the league’s 32 teams, 11 finished on or within a half-game of their preseason win-total projection. Those teams: the Bills (11 projected/11 actual), Chargers (9.5/9), Chiefs (12.5/12), Colts (9/9), Dolphins (9.5/9), Falcons (7.5/7), 49ers (10.5/10), Patriots (9.5/10), Saints (9/9), Texans (4/4), and Vikings (8.5/8).
However, the other 21 teams all finished at least 1.5 games outside of their projection. And 13 of those 21 squads were at least 2.5 games away from their win total.
The biggest overachievers were from the AFC: The Titans (9-win total) went 12-5 and claimed the conference’s No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, the Bengals (6.5) and Raiders (7) each finished 10-7, and they’re are set to kick off Super Wild Card Weekend against each other on Saturday.
The biggest underachiever? You guessed it: Jacksonville, which had a 6.5 win-total projection and finished 3-14. Right on the heels of the Jaguars were the Giants (7 projected/4 actual) and Seahawks (10/7).
Browns Blindside Bettors
The Cleveland Browns finished 11-5 a year ago, the first time since 1994 that the perpetually moribund franchise won that many games. Oddsmakers were expecting more of the same this season — and so was the betting public.
BetMGM pegged the Browns’ 2021-22 win total at 10.5, which was tied with the Ravens, Packers, Rams, and 49ers for the third-highest in the league, trailing only the Chiefs (12.5) and Bucs (12). Despite having to lay some juice (-120), bettors were all-in on Cleveland: When it came to wagers on the team’s win total, 86 percent of the money and 77 percent of the tickets were on the Over.
Sure enough, the Browns reverted to their underperforming ways, finishing 8-9.
BetMGM customers also overwhelmingly supported the Over on the Chiefs (92% money/85% tickets); Panthers (97%/74%); Packers (89%/90%); Patriots (89%/81%); Rams (89%/85%); and Steelers (89%/79%). Of that group, only Kansas City and Carolina fell short of expectations.
On the low side of NFL regular-season win totals, bettors were especially confident that two teams would be dreadful: Jacksonville and Houston. The Under nabbed 83 percent of the money and 89 percent of the tickets on the Jags’ win total, while 92 percent of the money and 85 percent of the tickets on the Texans’ win total were on the Under. As noted above, Jacksonville fell far short of its win total; Houston pushed.
And The Winner Is …
So how did the age-old bettor vs. bookmaker battle shake out in this year’s NFL season win totals market? Let’s call it a draw, at least at BetMGM.
The most-bet Overs were Lions Over 5, Titans Over 9, and Broncos Over 8.5. Those teams finished with 3, 12, and 7 wins, respectively. So the bookmakers won that one, 2-1.
The most-bet Unders were the Lions Under 5 (clearly, bettors had a big difference of opinion on Detroit), Bengals Under 6.5, and Jaguars Under 6.5. Score that one 2-1 for bettors.
As for significant line moves during the summer, bettors made the right call on the Rams (win total opened 10; closed 10.5), Packers (10/10.5), Ravens (11/10.5), and Vikings (9/8.5). However, they misjudged two AFC West squads: The Broncos’ win total jumped from 7.5 to 8.5, and Denver finished 7-10. Kansas City’s total shifted from 12 to 12.5, but the Chiefs ended up 12-5.
