NFL Matchups This Week: Christmas Day Schedule, Props & Predictions (12/25)

The NFL schedule makers thought they were giving us a gift with Patrick Mahomes vs. Bo Nix in primetime. Instead, we are getting a lump of coal wrapped in a Chiefs jersey. Either way, we have NFL Christmas Day matchups to break down for Thursday.

We have a Christmas tripleheader that features Chris Oladokun (yes, really) starting for Kansas City, an undrafted rookie named Max Brosmer starting for Minnesota, and a Cowboys-Commanders game that has turned into a preseason audition, with some starters playing for pride and chasing incentives.

But here’s the thing—chaos creates betting value. Let’s unwrap this disaster slate, check the rosters (because there are a lot of backup QBs), and find the winners.

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Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Betting Preview

• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV/Stream: Netflix Exclusive
• Spread: Cowboys -7

Life comes at you fast. Jayden Daniels was shut down for the season a few weeks ago with an elbow injury, capping a frustrating year. To make matters worse, backup Marcus Mariota is banged up with a hand injury and might not play, meaning we could see Josh Johnson under center.

They face a Cowboys team that has wasted a 4K-yard season from Dak Prescott thanks to a defense that ranks dead last.

• SPREAD PICK: Cowboys -7 – I don’t trust Dallas as far as I can throw them, but Washington has lost 10 of their last 11 games and might be starting a QB who was on the couch last week. Dak should do enough to win this ugly one.

• PLAYER PROP BET: George Pickens > 78.5 Receiving Yards – Pickens continues to have a career year. Dallas ranks toward the top of the league in pass rate, and Pickens has a very strong 34% air yard share, via Fantasy Points data.

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Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings Betting Preview

• Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV/Stream: Netflix Exclusive
• Spread: Lions -6

The Detroit Lions’ offense is averaging 30.1 points per game and fighting for a playoff spot. Their gift? They get to face the Vikings without J.J. McCarthy, who is out with a hand injury. Minnesota is rolling out undrafted rookie Max Brosmer for his first career start.

Jared Goff and this Lions passing attack should scorch a Vikings secondary that ranks near the bottom of the league. That being said, Minnesota DC Brian Flores loves to blitz. He gives up yardage and values takeaways.

However, the Lions’ defense is hurting too. Starting safeties Brian Branch (Achilles) and Kerby Joseph (knee) are both out, leaving the secondary thin. That might give Brosmer a few windows to throw into, but don’t overthink it. Detroit needs this game; Minnesota is playing out the string.

• SPREAD PICK: Lions -6 – Detroit needs a miracle to make the playoffs, but they are going to take this one seriously.

• PLAYER PROP BET: Jameson Williams Higher Than 60.5 Receiving Yards – Williams has been an animal since HC Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties. Sam LaPorta is gone for the year, Amon-Ra St. Brown is a little banged up, and Williams should see single coverage vs the blitz.

UPDATE: Jordan Mason is OUT, and David Montgomery is questionable.

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Bryce Young CAR QB LAR @ CAR Tomorrow 4:30 PM ET	o194.5 -112 u194.5 -112	o191.5 -137 u191.5 -137	o192.5 -114 u192.5 -114	o199.5 -114 u199.5 -142	o191.5 -115 u191.5 -115	o193.5 -118 u193.5 -115	o190.5 -115 u190.5 -115	o194.5 -137 u194.5 -137	-	-
Matthew Stafford LAR QB LAR @ CAR Tomorrow 4:30 PM ET	o263.5 -111 u263.5 -113	o265.5 -137 u265.5 -137	o264.5 -114 u264.5 -114	o262.5 -138 u262.5 -117	o264.5 -115 u264.5 -115	o264.5 -114 u264.5 -115	o265.5 -110 u265.5 -120	o1.5 -137 u1.5 -137	-	-
Caleb Williams CHI QB GB @ CHI Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET	o205.5 -113 u205.5 -111	o209.5 -137 u209.5 -137	o208.5 -114 u208.5 -114	o210.5 -131 u210.5 -125	o203.5 -115 u203.5 -115	o206.5 -115 u206.5 -115	o205.5 -110 u205.5 -120	o205.5 -137 u205.5 -137	-	-
Jordan Love GB QB GB @ CHI Tomorrow 8:00 PM ET	o222.5 -112 u222.5 -112	o222.5 -137 u222.5 -137	o220.5 -114 u220.5 -114	o225.5 -123 u225.5 -133	o224.5 +105 u224.5 -140	o221.5 -114 u221.5 -115	o220.5 -110 u220.5 -120	o222.5 -137 u222.5 -137	-	-
Josh Allen BUF QB BUF @ JAX Jan 11 1:00 PM ET	o231.5 -112 u231.5 -112	o230.5 -137 u230.5 -137	o227.5 -114 u227.5 -114	o223.5 -151 u223.5 -108	o230.5 -105 u230.5 -125	o230.5 -115 u230.5 -114	o225.5 -115 u225.5 -115	o230.5 -137 u230.5 -137	-	-
Trevor Lawrence JAX QB BUF @ JAX Jan 11 1:00 PM ET	o236.5 -113 u236.5 -111	o237.5 -137 u237.5 -137	o235.5 -114 u235.5 -114	o233.5 -140 u233.5 -116	o237.5 -115 u237.5 -115	o237.5 -121 u237.5 -112	o230.5 -120 u230.5 -110	o237.5 -137 u237.5 -137	-	-
Brock Purdy SF QB SF @ PHI Jan 11 4:30 PM ET	o226.5 -109 u226.5 -115	o228.5 -137 u228.5 -137	o228.5 -114 u228.5 -114	o228.5 -126 u228.5 -129	o232.5 +105 u232.5 -140	o227.5 -112 u227.5 -120	o230.5 -110 u230.5 -120	o224.5 -137 u224.5 -137	-	-
Jalen Hurts PHI QB SF @ PHI Jan 11 4:30 PM ET	o208.5 -110 u208.5 -114	o209.5 -137 u209.5 -137	o208.5 -114 u208.5 -114	o206.5 -131 u206.5 -125	o206.5 -115 u206.5 -115	o208.5 -114 u208.5 -115	o205.5 -120 u205.5 -110	o208.5 -137 u208.5 -137	-	-
Drake Maye NE QB LAC @ NE Jan 11 8:00 PM ET	o243.5 -113 u243.5 -111	o238.5 -137 u238.5 -137	o242.5 -114 u242.5 -114	o247.5 -121 u247.5 -135	o238.5 -115 u238.5 -115	o241.5 -115 u241.5 -114	o240.5 -115 u240.5 -115	o242.5 -137 u242.5 -137	-	-
Justin Herbert LAC QB LAC @ NE Jan 11 8:00 PM ET	o226.5 -113 u226.5 -111	o225.5 -137 u225.5 -137	o226.5 -114 u226.5 -114	o230.5 -121 u230.5 -135	o228.5 -115 u228.5 -115	o227.5 -114 u227.5 -115	o225.5 -115 u225.5 -115	o226.5 -137 u226.5 -137	-	-
Aaron Rodgers PIT QB HOU @ PIT Jan 12 8:15 PM ET	o205.5 -112 u205.5 -112	o204.5 -137 u204.5 -137	o204.5 -114 u204.5 -114	o205.5 -121 u205.5 -135	o202.5 -115 u202.5 -115	o205.5 -117 u205.5 -114	o200.5 -120 u200.5 -110	o207.5 -137 u207.5 -137	-	-
C.J. Stroud HOU QB HOU @ PIT Jan 12 8:15 PM ET	o229.5 -111 u229.5 -113	o231.5 -137 u231.5 -137	o232.5 -114 u232.5 -114	o230.5 -129 u230.5 -126	o232.5 -115 u232.5 -115	o229.5 -108 u229.5 -125	o230.5 -115 u230.5 -115	o226.5 -137 u226.5 -137	-	-

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Last updated: Jan 9, 2026 3:11 AM | Showing 10 of 12 props

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV/Stream: Prime Video
• Spread: Broncos -13

Christmas may as well be canceled in Kansas City. Why?

• Patrick Mahomes: OUT (Season/ACL)
• Gardner Minshew: OUT (Season/Knee)

We’re assuming Oladokun, a practice squad elevation, starts again this week. He was sacked four times in relief last week. He faces a Denver Broncos defense that is elite and a rookie QB in Bo Nix, who has thrown 24 TDs and led his team to 12 wins.

The Chiefs have secured their first losing season of the Andy Reid era. Denver is playing for the No. 1 seed; Kansas City is playing out the string with a QB3.

• SPREAD PICK: Broncos –13 – I don’t care that it’s Arrowhead. The Chiefs’ offense with Oladokun is virtually non-functional. Denver needs this game, and Bo Nix is playing like the Rookie of the Year. Lay the points and enjoy the blowout. This feels wrong, so I’m only throwing some lunch money on this one.

• PLAYER PROP BET: RJ Harvey Higher Than 48.5 Rushing Yards – The talented back has game-script in his favor, while Chris Jones and the Kansas City defense left a lot to be desired last week against the Titans. Lack of motivation is real.