If Week 2 was overreaction week in the NFL, does that make Week 3 market overcorrection week? That’s what I think we’re seeing across the NFL this week with flipped favorites in several games.
What we’re looking to focus on are great matchups for quarterbacks, running backs and receivers that might leave you with some nice plus money winners in the “Weekly Leaders” category.
NFL Market Leaders: Passing, Rushing & Receiving Week 3 Picks
We’ll be sharing our recommendations on “Most Passing Yards”, “Most Rushing Yards” and “Most Receiving Yards” for each week right here at Props.com.
WHO WILL HAVE THE MOST PASSING YARDS IN NFL WEEK 3?
Unfortunately, this prop gets graded only on Sunday passers, eliminating the obvious choice of Joe Burrow going against the 32-ranked Washington Commanders defense. Still, there are plenty of juicy opportunities for Sunday’s slate including one we feel is going under the radar.
When you think of the Baltimore Ravens you typically think of a strong rushing attack on offense and a swarming, stingy secondary on the defensive side of the ball.
Surprisingly through two weeks of play, the Ravens have allowed the most total yards to opposing quarterbacks. In Week 1 they allowed 291 passing yards but we’ll concede they were playing vs Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Week 2 is where we scratch our heads a bit as Baltimore allowed 276 yards on 30 completions to journeyman QB Gardener Minshew in an outright loss to the Las Vegas Raiders despite being -9.5 favorites.
Now they face off against a Dallas Cowboys team coming off a 44-19 beatdown at the hands of the New Orleans Saints. While it didn’t necessarily translate to points, Dak Prescott still racked up 293 yards passing on 27 completions. Now with two weeks under CeeDee Lamb’s belt after holding out this offseason, we expect his lackluster performance to come alive at home against a reeling Ravens team.
Add in the fact that this Cowboys team still searching for answers at running back, and we can expect Prescott to have his first huge week since his record-setting contract extension. Getting a huge 9-1 return on our investment is a no-brainer for this week’s QB leader play.
PLAY: DAK PRESCOTT TO HAVE THE MOST PASSING YARDS (+900)
WHO WILL HAVE THE MOST RUSHING YARDS IN NFL WEEK 3?
The trickiest market to handicap out of the three leader markets has to be rushing props.
Due to injuries, usage and the pesky running back by committee we’ve seen become more popular the days of setting and forgetting this market with the Adrian Peterson’s of the world are long gone.
First, we looked at fading the Indianapolis Colts defense, which has been by far the worst against rushers this season. That said, there is no one on the Chicago Bears roster worth taking a flier on — Caleb Williams is looking very much like a rookie, Deandre Swift looks like he’s happy to just have a payday, and let’s just say we wouldn’t ask anyone to put their money on Khalil Herbert or Roschon Johnson.
Then you look at fading the abysmal Carolina Panthers, but between the Raiders’ Zamir White or Alexander Mattison splits, your guess is as good as mine on who will get the work there. Alvin Kamara vs the Philadelphia Eagles rush defense allowing a league-high average of 6.51 yards per carry would be a good look too if Kamara didn’t also get so much work in the passing game.
This leaves us with one clear option – and he’s the odds-on favorite – Jordan Mason of the San Francisco 49ers. He’s the favorite for a reason, as his rushing total at a staggering 94.5 is the highest of all players this week and it makes sense why. Losing Deebo Samuel is a blow in the passing game, sure, but he also gets a good bulk of work in the running game plan for the 9ers, bolstering Mason’s usage.
He’ll also see a depleted Rams defense that has allowed the 3rd-most yards to opposing running backs through two weeks – most recently giving up 122 yards on 21 carries to James Conner.
Mason has had 100+ yards in both games this season in place of Christian McCaffrey and we just may see another 147-yard explosion that we saw in Week 1. It’s chalky, sure, but it’s also the selection that makes the most sense for this market, and at a 5-1 return it’s still not too shabby of an option.
PLAY: JORDAN MASON TO HAVE THE MOST RUSHING YARDS (+500)
WHO WILL HAVE THE MOST RECEIVING YARDS IN NFL WEEK 3?
While CeeDee Lamb may be the clear selection for us after reading our QB breakdown, the Ravens main struggles have been against TEs and RBs pushing down the value on some of these receivers.
So, we’ll actually look towards the matchup with the highest total on the board – sitting at 51.5 – Detroit Lions vs the Arizona Cardinals.
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers didn’t really need to take to their air against this Lions secondary since they hopped out to an early lead. Even so, Chris Godwin still ended up with 117 yards on just 7 catches, an average of over 16 yards per reception.
Going back to Week 1 in the back-and-forth affair between Detroit and the Los Angeles Rams, Stafford targeted receivers 39 times, completing 27 of them for 266 total yards. Fourteen of those receptions went to Cooper Kupp, who racked up 110 yards himself, showing the susceptibility of this Lions defense vs teams’ #1 receiving options in back-to-back weeks.
Now we see them facing a red-hot Arizona Cardinals team that saw the potential of first-round draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr. on full display last week, racking up 130 yards receiving on just 4 catches and two touchdowns, both in the first quarter. He went on to be targeted 8 times in a blowout game where passing wasn’t a factor.
With the Lions looking to bounce back and sitting as road favorites, expect a closer game that sees “Maserati Marv’s” usage continue to climb. If his big play ability is on display again, we just might cash a massive 22-1 ticket on the rookie to lead all receivers in Week 3.
PLAY: MARVIN HARRISON JR. TO HAVE THE MOST RECEIVING YARDS (+2200)