One of the best ways to beat the books and pick’em platforms is by simply being early. Sure, throughout the course of the NFL season, there are a ton of variables, and nothing is ever a stone-cold lock. But when it comes to the market of NFL futures picks, the betting odds and lines will continue to shift tremendously over the summer.
Why’s that? Sharp money will come in when a “bad” number is posted, while daily news, depth-chart battles, and injuries will constantly change these numbers.
NFL Futures Picks: Expert Best Bets and Odds
Our expert best bets will be right here every Friday thanks to our guy Justin Bales, who will keep tabs on the NFL futures market until he season kicks off.
NFL Futures: Team Win Totals
Bales runs through his favorite 2025 team win totals props this week. Stay tuned each Friday for new content leading up to the season’s opening kickoff.
Green Bay Packers Over 9.5 Wins
The Packers continue to be one of the more disrespected teams in the NFL. They won 11 games last season with 4 total losses to the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. They also played backups in their final game because the playoffs were already clinched.
Green Bay has some difficult matchups on its schedule, but it isn’t out of the question that they could go 0-4 against Minnesota and Detroit and still hit 10 wins. I wouldn’t anticipate them to lose all four of those games again, but it’s a buffer knowing they can and still hit this total.
The Packers had some roster turnover, but they replaced their losses (to some extent) through free agency. Aaron Banks and Nate Hobbs were the two big signings, and it’s clear Green Bay is high on both of them.
I’m backing an elite coach, high-end quarterback, and roster that has proven they can easily beat this total. The other key is that Green Bay features a young roster that theoretically should only be getting better from season to season.
Where to Play: Green Bay Packers Over 9.5 Wins | +105 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Kansas City Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins
How long do we have to see the Chiefs dominate the NFL before we accept that this number shouldn’t be available? Patrick Mahomes has 11+ wins in six of his seven NFL seasons, and he only missed with 10 wins (in 16 games played). They’re coming off a 15-win season.
No one should expect those results to be replicated. The Chiefs get Rashee Rice back, and Hollywood Brown looks healthy. They also added a couple of key pieces via the NFL Draft and free agency.
The Chiefs won 15 games in 2024 while struggling to consistently find offensive success. They return their best wide receiver, add a high-end deep threat, and add an outstanding prospect at tackle in Josh Simmons.
Kansas City also added a couple of pieces to its defense, including Kristian Fulton, who is expected to start at cornerback. We shouldn’t see a major drop-off from their defense, and I’d expect their offense to get back to where they were in the past.
Where to Play: Kansas City Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins | +100 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Atlanta Falcons Over 7.5 Wins
The Falcons have a relatively low win total because of their brutal stretch of games to start the season. They play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders, Buffalo Bills, and San Francisco 49ers in five of their first six games. The sixth game is a road divisional matchup against the Carolina Panthers.
The schedule lightens up after this stretch with several winnable games.
This bet likely depends on how you feel about Atlanta’s defense. Michael Penix Jr. looked the part late last season, and most are expecting the offense to perform well once again in 2025. The Falcons added several starters on the defensive side of the ball in free agency and the NFL Draft.
We should see a more balanced team from Atlanta this season, and they have the potential to go on a late-season run. It may actually be beneficial to wait until after the Falcons go through their gauntlet, then bet the over on their win total.
Where to Play: Atlanta Falcons Over 8.5 Wins | -135 at FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Futures: Season Long Player Props
This week, we have a few “NFL SZN” picks via Underdog Fantasy. Use promo code PROPS for a $1000 deposit bonus and free play!
J.J. McCarthy Passing Yards
This has nothing to do with McCarthy as a player. Love him. Hate him. Truthfully, I don’t care. The Minnesota Vikings told us all we needed to know when they low-balled Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones left for a team where he could “compete” for the QB1 spot. McCarthy is locked and loaded as the starter.
If there’s one thing we know about the NFL, Kevin O’Connell is going to produce numbers at the quarterback position. He took over as Minnesota’s head coach in 2022, and Kirk Cousins threw for 4,547 yards across 17 games. In 2023, Cousins threw for 2,331 yards in only eight games. Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs, and Jaren Hall combined for 2,369 yards across the other nine games. Sam Darnold revitalized his career with 4,319 yards in 17 games last season.
The Vikings have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. They feature an elite offensive system. They also have several playmakers on the outside who can create for their quarterback. I’m not picking McCarthy here. I’m picking Minnesota’s quarterback. We’re just getting a discount because he happens to be inexperienced in the NFL.
Where to Play: J.J. McCarthy Higher Than 3,449.5 Passing Yards | Underdog Fantasy
Rashee Rice Receiving Yards
This is a number I’m comfortable going all-in on, and if he misses, I tip my cap. He posted 79 receptions for 938 yards and seven touchdowns on 102 targets as a rookie. He saw a limited role early in the 2023 season, but he paced for a 99-1,178-9 line on 126 targets across his final 11 regular-season games, which is when he saw more consistent snaps.
Rice essentially played in three games last season before he was injured. He posted 24 receptions for 288 yards and 2 touchdowns on 29 targets. The important aspect is that he played 74% or more of the snaps in each of those three games.
Plenty of people have argued against him because of the other offensive options for the Kansas City Chiefs, but we’re getting a massive discount on that. Rice is already practicing, and there are reports that he’ll be completely healthy to start the season.
Patrick Mahomes is set at 4,000 yards for the season. We know how efficient Rice has been based on his early-career production. If their star wide receiver can’t garner 22% of Kansas City’s receiving yards, I’ll take the L. This is far too low a number for his talent and the offense. This is unquestionably one of my favorite NFL futures picks of 2025.
Where to Play: Rashee Rice Higher Than 874.5 Receiving Yards | Underdog Fantasy
Jerry Jeudy Receiving Yards
I believe in Jeudy’s talent. He showed flashes for the Denver Broncos before posting the best season of his career for the Cleveland Browns. He recorded 90 receptions for 1,229 yards and 4 touchdowns on 145 targets.
Jeudy took a step forward in Week 8 against the Baltimore Ravens, and he didn’t look back from there. Over his final 10 games, he paced for a 117-1,637-5 line on 175 targets. He beat this total by nearly 100 yards in that 10-game span.
I wouldn’t project Jeudy to average 10+ targets a week in 2025, but it also isn’t out of the question. The Browns threw the ball over 650 times last season, and it’s unlikely they’re going to be better this year. Jeudy and Elijah Moore both saw 100+ targets, with David Njoku finding 97 in 11 games.
We’re likely getting a discount because of the quarterback situation. I wouldn’t consider Joe Flacco a downgrade, and I’m not entirely sure how I feel about Shedeur Sanders, especially as a rookie. Still, I expect volume and talent to win out in this situation.
Where to Play: Jerry Jeudy Higher Than 900.5 Receiving Yards | Underdog Fantasy
UPDATE: This projection is now at 924.5 yards on Underdog.
