One of the best ways to beat the books and pick’em platforms is by simply being early. Sure, throughout the course of the NFL season, there are a ton of variables, and nothing is ever a stone-cold lock. But when it comes to the market of NFL futures picks, the betting odds and lines will continue to shift tremendously over the summer.
Why’s that? Sharp money will come in when a “bad” number is posted, while daily news, depth-chart battles, and injuries will constantly change these numbers.
NFL Futures Picks: Expert Best Bets and Odds
Our expert best bets will be right here throughout the summer thanks to our guy Justin Bales, who will keep tabs on the NFL futures market until he season kicks off.
You can find more updates in our weekly newsletters, and you certainly want to check out our NFL betting cheat sheet so you’re prepared when Week 1 rolls around!
Conference Champion Predictions
- Los Angeles Chargers AFC Conference Champions
The Los Angeles Chargers had one of the quickest turnarounds in the NFL in Jim Harbaugh’s first season as their head coach. He’s where this all starts. Harbaugh’s been a successful coach wherever he goes, from Stanford to San Francisco to Michigan and now Los Angeles. He’s consistently found success, and the Chargers can build off an 11-6 season in 2024.
Los Angeles is returning all five of their starting offensive linemen, although Trey Pipkins is expected to move to a swing role as the top option on the bench. They signed Mekhi Becton to bolster their starting unit, with Andre James adding depth. They’re viewed as one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, and they feature an elite tackle duo.
Justin Herbert is coming off an incredible season, and the Chargers bolstered their skill position groups. They drafted Omarion Hampton in the first round, and he boasts workhorse potential. They also added Najee Harris in free agency. Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Will Dissly all return with Tre Harris, Tyler Conklin, Oronde Gadsden, and KeAndre Lambert all adding depth.
The Chargers are bringing back the majority of their best pieces on defense. They added Da’Shawn Hand to help with their run defense. On the back end, Donte Jackson comes in as a veteran coming off an outstanding season. Ultimately, they’ll return one of the best defenses in the NFL from last season.
One more key that is going overlooked for Los Angeles is how elite they are on special teams. Derius Davis is always a threat with the ball in his hands. Cameron Dicker missed only 1 field goal under 50 yards last season, and he hit 92.9% overall. JK Scott was also one of the best punters in the league.
This is a team that is elite in all facets of the game, and if they can take a step forward on offense, they can reach the Super Bowl for the AFC.
Where to play: Los Angeles Chargers to Win the AFC Championship | +1300 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Green Bay Packers NFC Conference Champions
The end of the 2024 season for the Green Bay Packers may have a role in why they’re odds are so low. If you recall the Wild Card game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay went down 7-0 before their first possession after a questionable fumble on the opening kickoff. They also dealt with injuries on their offensive line and had no answers with their backups.
The Packers made it a point to solidify not only their starting offensive line but also add several viable backups. They signed Aaron Banks, which allows them to move Elgton Jenkins to center. They also drafted Anthony Belton to go along with former first-round pick Jordan Morgan if injuries arise.
Jordan Love will be in his third season starting, and we can expect him to take a step forward. The bigger key here is that he played the majority of 2024 injured, and he’s fully healthy entering the season. The Packers are bringing back the same core of skill position players, but MarShawn Lloyd will return from injury. They also added first-round pick Matthew Golden and Savion Williams to their receiving group.
The key about the Green Bay defense isn’t anyone who left or joined. It’s their age. The Packers have an exceptionally young defense with several players who gained valuable experience last season. They were one of the best units in the NFL last season, but several players should take steps forward in 2025.
The Packers went 11-6 (benched starters in Week 17), ranking eighth in points scored and sixth in points allowed as the youngest team in the NFL last season. They lost to the eventual Super Bowl champions after a fluke fumble and multiple injuries to their offensive line.
There’s risk involved in this bet because we’re banking on progression, but that’s also where we find the value.
Where to play: Green Bay Packers to Win the NFC Championship | +1000 at FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Futures: Award Winners
We have some juicy odds on our hands, including a quarterback who is not only healthy but has more weapons around him!
- Most Valuable Player: Dak Prescott
This is a quarterback award, and there’s no way around it. Saquon Barkley ran for 2,000+ yards with 15 touchdowns last season, and he didn’t receive a single first-place vote. Overall, quarterbacks have won 22 of 25 MVP awards since 2000, including each of the last 12.
Prescott threw for 4,500 yards with 36 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions in 2023, finishing second in the MVP voting as the Dallas Cowboys went 12-5. He was injured halfway through the season last year, and his overall numbers looked fine (excluding his interceptions).
There are three keys here.
First, Prescott currently ranks third and sixth in odds to lead the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns, but he’s 15th in MVP odds. Second, Dallas is also expected to be bad this season, having the second-worst odds (+550) to win the NFC East.
Last, the Cowboys feature an outstanding receiving group without any dominant running backs to steal stats from their star quarterback.
If Prescott can limit his interceptions and lead Dallas to a solid record, he comes with more than enough potential to win the MVP award.
Where to play: Dak Prescott to Win MVP | +4000 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Offensive ROY: Cameron Ward
This isn’t as much of a quarterback award as the MVP, but quarterbacks have a massive edge over everyone else. I’m fully expecting this race to come down to Ashton Jeanty and Ward, although the rookie class is stacked.
When you look at recent rookies, running backs have to have elite seasons without quarterbacks performing to find success. Here are some examples:
- Eddie Lacy won the award in 2023 because there weren’t any viable quarterbacks
- Todd Gurley received 54% of the votes after posting 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2025. Jameis Winston threw for 22 touchdowns in 15 interceptions and still received 34% of the votes
- Alvin Kamara (winner) and Kareem Hunt (runner-up) received the majority of the votes after both posted 1,500+ yards and 11+ touchdowns. Deshaun Watson received votes while playing in only 7 games
- Saquon Barkley received only 53% of the votes after totaling over 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns. Baker Mayfield posted 3,700 yards with 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He received 43% of the votes
These are the last four times a running back won the award. Jeanty is elite, but he needs to be head-and-shoulders better than Ward to have a chance at winning. For the odds, the quarterback makes more sense.
Where to play: Cameron Ward to Win Offensive Rookie of the Year | +300 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Coach Of The Year: Liam Coen
This award generally doesn’t go to the best coach in the NFL every year. Instead, it goes to the coach who has most improved their team. More often than not, the Coach of the Year award is given to a non-playoff team that makes the playoffs the following year. If they do choose a coach already on a playoff team, it’d be something similar to the Denver Broncos if they knock off the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers to win the AFC West.
Coen is a first-time NFL Head Coach who worked as a flashy offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2024. He’s taking over the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have several high-end pieces, but went 4-13 last season.
This is one of the few jobs in the NFL where it was seen as potentially taking the least amount of time to turn around. They’re +300 to win the AFC South, which ranks second behind only the Houston Texans (+110). This is a division that is not only up for grabs, but also features six winnable games, giving Jacksonville a better chance at a wildcard spot if they can’t take the top spot.
Where to play: Liam Coen to Win Coach of the Year | +1000 at FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Futures: Team Win Totals
Bales runs through his favorite 2025 team win totals props this week. Stay tuned each Friday for new content leading up to the season’s opening kickoff.
- Green Bay Packers Over 9.5 Wins
The Packers continue to be one of the more disrespected teams in the NFL. They won 11 games last season with 4 total losses to the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. They also played backups in their final game because the playoffs were already clinched.
Green Bay has some difficult matchups on its schedule, but it isn’t out of the question that they could go 0-4 against Minnesota and Detroit and still hit 10 wins. I wouldn’t anticipate them to lose all four of those games again, but it’s a buffer knowing they can and still hit this total.
The Packers had some roster turnover, but they replaced their losses (to some extent) through free agency. Aaron Banks and Nate Hobbs were the two big signings, and it’s clear Green Bay is high on both of them.
I’m backing an elite coach, high-end quarterback, and roster that has proven they can easily beat this total. The other key is that Green Bay features a young roster that theoretically should only be getting better from season to season.
Where to play: Green Bay Packers Over 9.5 Wins | +105 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Kansas City Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins
How long do we have to see the Chiefs dominate the NFL before we accept that this number shouldn’t be available? Patrick Mahomes has 11+ wins in six of his seven NFL seasons, and he only missed with 10 wins (in 16 games played). They’re coming off a 15-win season.
No one should expect those results to be replicated. The Chiefs get Rashee Rice back, and Hollywood Brown looks healthy. They also added a couple of key pieces via the NFL Draft and free agency.
The Chiefs won 15 games in 2024 while struggling to consistently find offensive success. They return their best wide receiver, add a high-end deep threat, and add an outstanding prospect at tackle in Josh Simmons.
Kansas City also added a couple of pieces to its defense, including Kristian Fulton, who is expected to start at cornerback. We shouldn’t see a major drop-off from their defense, and I’d expect their offense to get back to where they were in the past.
Where to play: Kansas City Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins | +100 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Atlanta Falcons Over 7.5 Wins
The Falcons have a relatively low win total because of their brutal stretch of games to start the season. They play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Commanders, Buffalo Bills, and San Francisco 49ers in five of their first six games. The sixth game is a road divisional matchup against the Carolina Panthers.
The schedule lightens up after this stretch with several winnable games.
This bet likely depends on how you feel about Atlanta’s defense. Michael Penix Jr. looked the part late last season, and most are expecting the offense to perform well once again in 2025. The Falcons added several starters on the defensive side of the ball in free agency and the NFL Draft.
We should see a more balanced team from Atlanta this season, and they have the potential to go on a late-season run. It may actually be beneficial to wait until after the Falcons go through their gauntlet, then bet the over on their win total.
Where to play: Atlanta Falcons Over 8.5 Wins | -135 at FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Futures: Season Long Player Props
This week, we have a few “NFL SZN” picks via Underdog Fantasy. Use promo code PROPS for a $1000 deposit bonus and free play!
- J.J. McCarthy Passing Yards
This has nothing to do with McCarthy as a player. Love him. Hate him. Truthfully, I don’t care. The Minnesota Vikings told us all we needed to know when they low-balled Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones left for a team where he could “compete” for the QB1 spot. McCarthy is locked and loaded as the starter.
If there’s one thing we know about the NFL, Kevin O’Connell is going to produce numbers at the quarterback position. He took over as Minnesota’s head coach in 2022, and Kirk Cousins threw for 4,547 yards across 17 games. In 2023, Cousins threw for 2,331 yards in only eight games. Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs, and Jaren Hall combined for 2,369 yards across the other nine games. Sam Darnold revitalized his career with 4,319 yards in 17 games last season.
The Vikings have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. They feature an elite offensive system. They also have several playmakers on the outside who can create for their quarterback. I’m not picking McCarthy here. I’m picking Minnesota’s quarterback. We’re just getting a discount because he happens to be inexperienced in the NFL.
Where to play: J.J. McCarthy Higher Than 3,449.5 Passing Yards | Underdog Fantasy
- Rashee Rice Receiving Yards
Editor’s Note: With a possible suspension looming for Rice, this play is no longer recommended.
This is a number I’m comfortable going all-in on, and if he misses, I tip my cap. He posted 79 receptions for 938 yards and seven touchdowns on 102 targets as a rookie. He saw a limited role early in the 2023 season, but he paced for a 99-1,178-9 line on 126 targets across his final 11 regular-season games, which is when he saw more consistent snaps.
Rice essentially played in three games last season before he was injured. He posted 24 receptions for 288 yards and 2 touchdowns on 29 targets. The important aspect is that he played 74% or more of the snaps in each of those three games.
Plenty of people have argued against him because of the other offensive options for the Kansas City Chiefs, but we’re getting a massive discount on that. Rice is already practicing, and there are reports that he’ll be completely healthy to start the season.
Patrick Mahomes is set at 4,000 yards for the season. We know how efficient Rice has been based on his early-career production. If their star wide receiver can’t garner 22% of Kansas City’s receiving yards, I’ll take the L. This is far too low a number for his talent and the offense. This is unquestionably one of my favorite NFL futures picks of 2025.
Where to Play: Rashee Rice Higher Than 874.5 Receiving Yards | Underdog Fantasy
- Jerry Jeudy Receiving Yards
I believe in Jeudy’s talent. He showed flashes for the Denver Broncos before posting the best season of his career for the Cleveland Browns. He recorded 90 receptions for 1,229 yards and 4 touchdowns on 145 targets.
Jeudy took a step forward in Week 8 against the Baltimore Ravens, and he didn’t look back from there. Over his final 10 games, he paced for a 117-1,637-5 line on 175 targets. He beat this total by nearly 100 yards in that 10-game span.
I wouldn’t project Jeudy to average 10+ targets a week in 2025, but it also isn’t out of the question. The Browns threw the ball over 650 times last season, and it’s unlikely they’re going to be better this year. Jeudy and Elijah Moore both saw 100+ targets, with David Njoku finding 97 in 11 games.
We’re likely getting a discount because of the quarterback situation. I wouldn’t consider Joe Flacco a downgrade, and I’m not entirely sure how I feel about Shedeur Sanders, especially as a rookie. Still, I expect volume and talent to win out in this situation.
Where to play: Jerry Jeudy Higher Than 900.5 Receiving Yards | Underdog Fantasy
UPDATE: This projection is now at 924.5 yards on Underdog.
