NFL Divisional Playoff Odds: Two-Way Play On Bills Vs Chiefs

UPDATE 12:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The Chiefs bounced between -2.5 and -2 a couple times early in the week at DraftKings, then dipped to -1.5 Tuesday night. The number got back to -2.5 Wednesday afternoon, then slowly made its way down to -1 by this morning. Similar to Rams-Bucs, underdog Buffalo is drawing 52% of tickets/55% of money on the spread. The total opened at 54, topped out at 55 Monday, hit a low of 53.5 Thursday, and it’s now at 54. Ticket count is 2/1 and money 4/1 on the Over.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SATURDAY: WynnBet installed Kansas City as a 2.5-point chalk, then dipped to -2 Tuesday on its way to -1.5 Wednesday. The line has been stable since and is currently Chiefs -1.5 (-115). K.C. is drawing just 54% of spread tickets, though that’s translating into 73% of spread dollars.

Much like Rams-Bucs, moneyline bettors are more intrigued by the underdog Bills, who are collecting 64% of tickets/66% of cash. Buffalo opened +115 and shortened to +105 on the moneyline.

The total opened at 54, peaked at 55 Monday, bottomed out at 53.5 early Thursday afternoon and returned to 54 late Thursday afternoon. The Over is getting 59% of tickets/52% of money.

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET FRIDAY: With a 6:30 p.m. ET start Sunday, the final game on the NFL Divisional Playoff odds board will bleed into prime time. And it’s going to be a very well-bet contest.

“The handle for Bills-Chiefs will be the biggest of the playoffs so far, and it’ll give the conference championships a run for their money, too.” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “The final game of the round will always be the highest-bet game, and it’s great that this is the last game, because it jumps off the page. It’s crazy that this matchup is the divisional round, but there’s good reason to be excited. Everything points to this being a great game to watch and a lot of points being scored.”

Caesars books opened the Chiefs -2.5, briefly saw -3, then dropped to -1.5 in most jurisdictions. The Chiefs are now -2, with the underdog Bills garnering 55% of spread tickets and 65% of spread dollars. That money count was boosted by a $220,000 Bills +3 wager in North Carolina.

UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: This total has seen some interesting movement at Caesars, initially rising from 54.5 to 55, then dialing down to 53.5 by this afternoon. The Over is taking 67% of money, while 72% of cash is on the Under. Sharp play helped bring the number down, and there’s also a $176,000 Under 55 wager from a Nevada customer.

“I don’t think it’s going to go too much lower, barring wacky weather conditions, and there shouldn’t be any,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “With a lot of these big totals in big games, the sharps like to bet Under and the public likes to bet Over. When you have a total in the mid-50s, you need a lot of things to go right. The sharps just think there’s value there with the high total staying Under, since it’s a playoff game and the teams may be tighter.

“It looks like it’s going to be another public vs. sharps battle here. Even with the sharp money, we’re still going to need this to stay Under.”

In Week 5, the Bills and Chiefs combined for 58 points in Buffalo’s 38-20 road victory — barely eclipsing the 57-point closing total. Last season’s AFC Championship Game cleared the total of 55, with host Kansas City beating Buffalo 38-24.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings opened the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites, moved to -2 a couple times, then dipped to -1.5 Tuesday night. Despite the line shift in Buffalo’s favor, it’s been two-way spread action with a lean toward Kansas City, at 52% of bets/53% of money. The total went straight from 54 to 55 Monday morning and has been steady at 54.5 since Tuesday afternoon. The Over is attracting 68% of early bets and a hefty 92% of early money.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: No. 3 seed Buffalo (12-6 SU, 10-6-2 ATS) didn’t mess around with No. 6 seed and AFC East rival New England. Buffalo scored touchdowns on its first seven possessions in a 47-17 beatdown as a 4.5-point home favorite Saturday night.

Similarly on Sunday night, No. 2 Kansas City (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS) made very quick work of No. 7 Pittsburgh, ruining Ben Roethlisberger’s likely final game. After the Steelers opened the scoring with a defensive touchdown, the Chiefs put up 35 consecutive points en route to a 42-21 wipeout as a 12.5-point home chalk.

Kansas City has followed a 3-4 SU start by winning 10 of its last 11 (7-4 ATS), which included a six-game spread-covering streak early on. The Chiefs have also cashed in five straight home games.

The SuperBook opened K.C. at -2.5 and dipped to -2 in short order tonight. Firmly in mind was Buffalo going to Kansas City as a 2.5-point Week 5 road pup and rolling to a 38-20 victory.

“We don’t think the Chiefs should be giving the full field-goal favorite here,” Murray said. “The Bills manhandled them in the first meeting. But more importantly, we remember how the sharp guys bet that game: all Buffalo. We saw a lot of respected players take the Bills on Saturday night, and we felt confident they would take +3 if we put it up. Great game.”

The total rose a point tonight to 54.5 in the NFL divisional playoff odds market.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SATURDAY: Following a wild Saturday in which both underdogs knocked off the AFC and NFC No. 1 seeds, defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay will try to get favorites back on track. WynnBet opened the Buccaneers -3 and on Tuesday afternoon dipped to -2.5, where the line stuck the rest of the week. Tampa is currently -2.5 (-120), while taking a slim majority 53% of both tickets and money.

Moneyline bettors are taking more of a shine to the underdog Rams, who are taking 62% of tickets and 63% of cash. Los Angeles opened +130 on the moneyline and have been at +125 most of the week in WynnBet’s NFL divisional playoff odds market.

The total bounced around a bit this week, from 48.5 to 48, then up to 49 by Tuesday afternoon. But by Thursday afternoon, the number receded to 47.5, where it remains tonight, with 68% of tickets/56% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The consensus today at most Caesars locations across the U.S. is Bucs -2.5 (-120), though in Nevada and Illinois, it’s Bucs -3 (even). It’s definitely two-way action, with Tampa Bay nabbing 56% of spread bets and Los Angeles drawing 54% of spread cash.

UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: This total is down a tick at Caesars books, moving from 48.5 to 48 earlier today. But the Over is nabbing 72% of tickets and 78% of dollars.

“It’s not surprising that this total has dropped, based on how the sharps were betting the Bucs Under last week,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “The Rams are obviously more explosive on offense than the Eagles, but now that [the sharps are] doing it again, Bucs Unders may be the angle that they’re going to play as long as Tampa is in the playoffs.”

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Tampa Bay climbed from -2.5 to -3 late Monday night at DraftKings and briefly returned to -2.5 late Tuesday morning before going back to -3 Tuesday afternoon. The Bucs are currently -3 (-105) on almost perfect two-way point-spread action: 51% of tickets on Tampa, and money split 50/50. After opening at 48.5, the total moved to 49 and back to 48.5 by early Tuesday morning, inched down to 48 by lunchtime today, then returned to the opener. The Over is netting 76% of tickets/72% of money.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET MONDAY: The SuperBook posted this line before the fourth quarter of Cardinals-Rams began Monday night, such was the state of that game. NFC No. 3 seed Los Angeles (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS), a 3.5-point chalk, led No. 6 Arizona 28-0 early in the second half and coasted to a 34-11 victory. L.A. is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its last seven games

Similarly, No. 2 seed Tampa Bay (14-4 SU, 10-8 ATS) had no problem dispatching No. 7 Philadelphia on Sunday. The Buccaneers, laying 7 points at home, built a 31-0 third-quarter lead and let off the gas from there, winning 31-15. Tampa is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in its last nine outings.

As with 49ers-Packers and Bills-Chiefs, this contest is a rematch from a regular-season showdown. In Week 3, the Rams were in control throughout a 34-24 victory catching 1 point at home against the Bucs. But Tampa got early interest after this line went up tonight.

“We opened Bucs -2.5 (-110), and it’s been one-way Bucs traffic so far. We’re up to -2.5 (-120),” SuperBook risk manager Neil Fitzroy said. “Both teams [had] impressive wild-card wins. The Bucs have lost a couple important offensive weapons. But as long as Brady is under center, it tough to count them out. We expect solid two-way action after the number settles in.”

While the spread saw a price adjustment tonight, the total was unchanged.

UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: Green Bay has been a 5.5-point favorite most of the week at BetMGM, save for about 18 hours at -6 from Wednesday night until Thursday afternoon. Ticket count and money are both in the 4/1 range on the Packers. The total opened at 48.5 and is down to 47.5, with 57% of tickets/61% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sportsbook had one of the lower opening lines on this game, at Packers -4.5, then moved to -5 and -5.5 within a few hours. The number reached -6 Tuesday then inched back to -5.5 on Thursday. Part of that shortening likely had to due with 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo carrying no injury designation after previously being listed as questionable with a shoulder injury (to go with a thumb ailment). Another part: a $220,000 bet on San Francisco +6 from a Nevada Caesars customer.

Green Bay is taking 75% of spread bets, but just 61% of spread cash, thanks to that large Niners wager. Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen foresees a Niners need.

“It’s the night game on Saturday, and depending on what happens in that first game, we could be staring at a big liability on a huge public team like the Packers,” Pullen said. “Even though the Niners have been doing what they’re doing, the Packers throughout the year have just garnered that public money, and that’s been the case here, too. With the way the Niners have been playing down the stretch, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they beat the Packers.”

UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Each Thursday of the NFL season, Caesars Sportsbook sends out updates strictly on each game’s total, then follows on Friday with updates on the spread. Would we at Props.com rather get both at once? Well, yeah. But we’re not gonna complain.

So: Caesars opened the total at 47.5 and is down to 47. It’s two-way action leaning toward the Over, at 53% of tickets/58% of money.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings opened Green Bay as a 5-point chalk late Sunday night and very early Monday morning  moved to -5.5. The Packers have since made a couple trips to -6, where the number stands this afternoon. Aaron Rodgers and Co. are nabbing 72% of early spread tickets and 76% of early spread cash. The total opened at 47.5, rose to 48 in short order, then returned to 47.5 Monday afternoon. This morning, the total dipped to 47, with 62% of tickets landing on the Over, but money running almost dead even.

Worth noting: 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder) is questionable at the moment. Garoppolo had previously been dealing with a thumb issue on his right (throwing) hand.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: San Francisco is the surprise of the playoff party so far, as the only wild-card underdog to reach the divisional round. That’s of course pending the Monday night result between the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams.

The 49ers went to Dallas as 3.5-point underdogs, jumped out to a 13-0 lead, then hung on late for a 23-17 victory Sunday. NFC No. 6 seed San Francisco (11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS) has won three in a row, and is 8-2 SU and ATS in its last 10 outings.

Green Bay (13-4 SU, 12-5 ATS) owns the NFC’s No. 1 seed and the Super Wild Card Weekend bye that came with it. The Packers locked up that bye with a late-season 5-0 SU run that made their Week 18 game meaningless. In that contest, the Pack lost at Detroit 37-30 as a 4-point favorite.

Green Bay finished with the NFL’s second-best point-spread record, yet enters the postseason in a 1-3 ATS slump.

“We opened Packers -5.5 and are still there, taking a handful of bets from arbitrage players on the 49ers,” Murray said, noting other shops opened at Packers -5 and even -4.5. “We think the market came in too low on this game.”

While the spread was stable, the total quickly dipped a point to 47.5 tonight.

These two teams met in a Week 3 screamer in San Francisco, where Green Bay won 30-28 on a final-seconds field goal as a 3.5-point underdog.

UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: The Titans moved up to -4 this morning at BetMGM, after opening -3 and spending most of the week at -3.5. Ticket count is 2/1 and money 3/1 on Tennessee on BetMGM’s digital platforms. However, a BetMGM retail book today took a $550,000 bet on Titans -3.5, significantly adding to Tennessee liability. The total rose from 46.5 to 47.5, with the Over getting 73% of tickets, but just 56% of money.

UPDATE 10:15 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Tennessee opened -3 at Caesars Sportsbook and made a couple of early-week treks to -3.5, where the number remains tonight. This afternoon, Caesars reported two-way spread action with a lean toward the Titans, at 54% of tickets/56% of money. However, Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale came in tonight with a monster $1.1 million bet on Bengals +3.5. That wager assuredly and heavily skewed the money splits, though Caesars didn’t have an update tonight.

Even before Mattress Mack came calling, this matchup got more interesting today when Titans running back Derrick Henry officially got the starting nod. Cincinnati hopes Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Co. can sufficiently counter-punch in an intriguing matchup behind the betting counter.

“It’s rare for the sharps to be on the favorite and a lot of the public to be on the underdog in a playoff game,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “There’s just a lot of hype over the Bengals, even though they caught a few breaks last week. The Burrow-Chase combination is exciting, and Tennessee just doesn’t bring that level of excitement to a lot of people. They’re the No. 1 seed and getting Henry back is huge. But when you look at the rosters, Burrow and Chase stand out, while [Ryan] Tannehill doesn’t excite people as much.

“As weird as it sounds, I think the Titans are sort of an off-the-radar team. They probably have the least star power of all the teams left in the playoffs.”

UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Again, Caesars only released info on totals today in its NFL divisional playoff odds market. For Saturday’s opening game, the total is up a point, from 46.5 to 47.5, with ticket count almost 2/1 and money 6/1 on the Over. Tennessee running back Derrick Henry, out since Oct. 31, could return this week, a key consideration for oddsmakers.

“It remains to be seen how Henry is going to be,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “If he’s OK, it just makes it much more difficult to defend the Titans. It really opens things up for [Ryan] Tannehill, which helps the case of people who want to bet this Over. Could this go to 48, 48.5? I wouldn’t be surprised. I made it higher myself when I was making my lines.”

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Tennessee hit DraftKings’ NFL divisional playoff odds board as a 3-point favorite late Sunday and moved straight to -4 early Monday. The line returned to Titans -3 late Monday morning, then Monday night went to -3.5, where it remains today. News of note: Titans stud running back Derrick Henry is expected to play, after missing eight games since Oct. 31 with a foot injury.

Underdog Cincinnati is seeing 53% of bets, while 61% of money is on Tennessee. The total dipped from 47.5 to 47 early Monday and hasn’t moved since, with tickets and money about 2/1 on the Over.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: No. 4 seed Cincinnati (11-7 SU and ATS) notched its first postseason win in 31 seasons to advance in the NFL playoffs. The Bengals got out to a 20-6 lead Saturday, but had to hold off the No. 5 Raiders’ last-gasp drive inside the red zone to clinch a 26-19 victory as 6-point home favorites. Joe Burrow and Co. are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games.

Even without bell cow Derrick Henry for the final nine games of the season, Tennessee managed to nab the AFC’s No. 1 seed. So the Titans (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) are rested and, in fact, might have Henry back from his foot injury. Tennessee capped the regular season on a 3-0 SU surge (2-1 ATS), barely holding off Houston 28-25 laying 11 points on the road in Week 18.

“We saw the market open a little higher, but we don’t agree,” Murray said in support of The SuperBook opening Tennessee as a 2.5-point chalk. “Some of our guys were closer to pick than to the Titans giving a field goal. The Bengals are a hot team right now. They should get some public support. They certainly got a ton on Saturday.”

That said, right out the gate, the line jumped to Titans -3 and then to -3.5 late tonight. The total inched up a half-point to 47.