Let’s dive into two players who are due for some serious positive regression in 2025 NFL DFS. There are season-long projections and player props posted that appear too low.
Make sure to check out our NFL betting cheat sheet for ways to maximize your profit this season!
NFL 2025 Bounce-Back Candidates: Season Long Props
The market loves to overreact to single-season results.
To illustrate, we’re going to look at two quarterbacks – Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy.
Here are their current season-long passing yard numbers on Underdog Picks for the 2025 season:
Prescott had a season-ending injury last season? He must be washed up.
Purdy had a down year with a ton of chaos around him? He must be a fluky quarterback.
Wrong!
Dak Prescott Passing Yards
Prescott is as healthy as he’s been in months, and he just got cleared for full training camp participation. There is mathematical positive regression that’s prime to happen.
Dak’s 2024 QB passer rating of 86.0 was 8.3 points lower than his three-year average of 94.3. That’s not a bad year; that’s just a statistical outlier. His serious hamstring injury likely had a lot to do with his poor QB rating.
But again, Dak is healthy, and he will be supported by a new coach who has a shiny new toy to play with.
Dallas brought in Brian Schottenheimer as the new head coach, installing a completely revamped offense. Fresh systems can unlock quarterbacks, especially proven talents working with competent coordinators.
Dallas made a splash in the spring to bring in former Pittsburgh receiver George Pickens, who is arguably the league’s best No. 2 receiver.
The math here is simple: when you have a $240 million quarterback with a career track record, an 8.3 point rating gap doesn’t persist.
I’m hitting Prescott’s Higher Than 3849.5 Passing Yards projection. That’s conservative considering he averaged 4,400+ yards in 2022-2023 before the injury-shortened 2024.
Pick: Dak Prescott Higher Than 3849.5 Passing Yards | Underdog Fantasy
Brock Purdy Passing Yards
Social media says Purdy has been throwing bombs at training camp and looking completely healthy after some minor injury concerns late in 2024.
The bounce-back here might even be more obvious than Dak’s.
Purdy went from a 113.0 passer rating in his breakout 2023 season to 96.1 in 2024. That’s an 8.5-point decline that screams sophomore slump overcorrection.
Here’s what everyone forgets: the 49ers system is quarterback-friendly to an almost ridiculous degree. Kyle Shanahan has turned multiple quarterbacks into Pro Bowlers.
The 2024 season was chaotic for everyone in San Francisco – injuries everywhere, drama with Brandon Aiyuk, just a general mess.
But the data tells us that elite offensive systems with good quarterbacks typically bounce back. Purdy’s average rating is way higher than a 96.1 rating.
The 49ers didn’t give him a contract extension to be mediocre, and Shanahan’s system historically produces consistent quarterback performance regardless of who’s under center.
There is a bit of an overall concern, as Aiyuk is still recovering, Ricky Pearsall had some lingering issues in the offseason, and Jauan Jennings just got hurt.
That said, the 49ers still have a (currently healthy) Christian McCaffrey and Mr. George Kittle.
Plus, maybe they won’t have dominant game scripts as often in 2025/26, which could lead to a few more passing attempts per game for Purdy.
Pick: Brock Purdy Higher Than 3849.5 Passing Yards | Underdog Fantasy
Feature Image Credit: Imagn
