The NFL serves up a pair of intriguing conference title games Sunday.
While the AFC “main event” between the Bills and Chiefs consists of a matchup that was widely expected as the season unfolded, the presence of the Commanders, and even the Eagles to an extent, as the last two teams standing in the NFC is somewhat of a swerve, given how dominant the Lions and Vikings had looked this season.
With the stage set for what should be a pair of thrilling high-stakes matchups, let’s take a closer look at each game and a top player prop bet to consider from each on Underdog.
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NFL Conference Championship Previews & Picks
Below you’ll find our game previews and top picks for the Conference Championship matchups on Sunday, Jan. 26.
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Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
Jayden Daniels continued to break rookie barriers by leading the Commanders to the massive road divisional-round upset over the Lions that vaulted them into Sunday’s NFC Championship Game, became the only first-year player in NFL history to top 300 total yards in two postseason contests.
The star second overall pick has looked unflappable over his first two career playoff games and now faces a top-tier Eagles defense; however, it’s one he threw for 258 yards and five touchdowns against in his second meeting with them in Week 16, a wild 36-33 win for Washington during which he added 81 rushing yards on nine carries.
The Eagles go into Sunday’s showdown following a hard-fought divisional-round win over the Rams in which Saquon Barkley added another chapter to his storybook debut campaign in Philadelphia with a 205-yard, two-touchdown performance. Barkley also lit up Washington for 296 rushing yards and four rush TDS during the two regular-season meetings between the teams.
Jalen Hurts is expected to wear a brace on the left knee he injured versus Los Angeles, so Barkley may once again see a significant workload, especially given the track record he has versus a Washington defense that’s given up 150.6 rushing yards per road game since the start of the regular season.
Zach Ertz More Than 31.5 Receiving Yards
The Eagles were lights out against perimeter receivers all season, and Philadelphia allowed just a 59.6% catch rate to wideouts overall. In contrast, Philly surrendered a 68-591-5 line and 66% catch rate to tight ends, and Ertz had six receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown on seven targets in the first meeting of the season with his old Eagles squad.
Ertz recorded over 31.5 receiving yards on 10 occasions during the regular season, and he fell just short of an 11th with 31 receiving yards against the Steelers in Week 10. His average yards per target (7.2) this season were also his highest since the 2018 campaign, while his seven catches of 20+ yards were his most of that distance since 2019.
With the Commanders undoubtedly in line to remain aggressive throughout Sunday’s game, the ever reliable veteran tight end should garner a fair amount of Daniels’ attention and find some open space in the middle of the field.
Where to play: Zach Ertz more than 31.5 receiving yards | Underdog
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Josh Allen’s list of accomplishments and accolades is already extensive just seven seasons into his NFL career, but one glaring omission is at least one postseason victory over fellow star signal-caller Patrick Mahomes. The fact Buffalo actually has four consecutive regular-season wins over Kansas City, including three straight at Arrowhead, and that the last two playoff losses have come by a combined nine points makes it all the more maddening for Allen and Bills faithful.
Sunday’s forthcoming installment in the series could be another instant classic, as Allen is arguably playing at a career-best level and has a legitimate game-breaking weapon alongside him in the backfield in James Cook, and the Bills’ defense has gotten increasingly stingier in recent weeks.
The Chiefs are on the verge of having an opportunity to play for an unprecedented third consecutive Lombardi Trophy, and they’ve gotten there as the undisputed masters of the close win.
KC’s elite ability to limit mistakes seems to always keep them in position to close the door in the fourth quarter, but in Allen and co., they’re facing the only team that handed them a non-Week 18 loss this past season. They’re also up against a club that seems to have just as good a defense as theirs, a more dynamic running game, and an eclectic group of pass-catching weapons that rivals that of Kansas City’s. As such – and given the defending champion’s penchant for playing close games even against a much lesser caliber of opponent – this could very well be another wire-to-wire affair with plenty of offense that may ultimately hinge on a single play.
Xavier Worthy Higher Than 47.5 Receiving Yards
Worthy became an increasingly important component of the Chiefs’ air attack over the second half of his rookie season and continued that trend in his first career playoff game. Worthy averaged 49 receiving yards per game over the last eight games he played during the regular season (Weeks 11-17), exceeding this prop on four occasions.
He then fell just short with 45 receiving yards in the divisional-round win over the Texans, but the Chiefs weren’t required to be particularly aggressive in that game. Worthy’s speed should be a key weapon Kansas City looks to leverage against a Buffalo defense without star safety Taylor Rapp (hip), and the Chiefs will undoubtedly look to compile as many points as possible considering Allen’s presence on the opposite sideline.
Finally, consider the Bills have yielded an elevated 11.1 yards per completion on the road since the start of the season, and 11.4 yards per completion in the last three contests overall.
Where to play: Xavier Worthy more than 47.5 receiving yards | Underdog