NFL Conference Championship Odds: Two-Way Action On 49ers Vs Rams

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: WynnBet has been at some iteration of Rams -3.5 all week long, opening at -3.5 (-105) and currently sitting at -3 flat (-110). Point-spread ticket count is practically dead even, while the 49ers are drawing 64% of spread dollars. The total opened at 47 (Under -115), dipped to 46.5 in short order and has been at 46 since Thursday morning. The Over is seeing 66% of tickets, while 55% of money is on the Under.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Los Angeles hit Caesars’ NFL Conference Championship odds market as a 3.5-point favorite, and much like the Cincy-K.C. tilt, that number didn’t last long before dipping to Rams -3. However, by Tuesday, the Rams were at -3.5 (-105), where they remain tonight. Tickets and money are both in the 2/1 range on L.A., even though San Francisco drew a $110,000 play at +3.5 in Nevada.

“It’s a pretty even matchup, but maybe the public is siding with the Rams because they have more star power,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “The Rams have looked more dominant overall this postseason too. It shouldn’t have been as close as it was in Tampa last week. Also, when you see the minus in front of a team, a lot of people just like to play the favorites. You see that with the Chiefs’ line going up and [with] there being more money on the Rams.”

On Caesars’ NFC Championship Game moneyline, the Rams are -185 to the Niners’ +165. San Fran is drawing 63% of moneyline tickets, while 52% of moneyline dollars are on Los Angeles.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Again, Caesars’ Thursday NFL updates are solely on totals. This one is down a point, opening at 47, dipping to 46.5 shortly thereafter Sunday night, then going to 46 Monday evening. The Over is netting a slim majority 54% of tickets, while 71% of cash is on the Under. The money discrepancy is largely due to a $220,000 Under 46.5 play from a Nevada bettor.

“It may not seem like a big drop from 47 to 46. For these big games, the sharps are going to decide what they like, and if their number favors it, they’ll get down,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “Every half-point is huge, and they saw value when it was at 46.5. We take bigger bets from the sharps than we ever have, and that might skew things. But when kickoff comes, we’ll be needing the Under along with the sharps. Big games bring out Over money.”

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: BetMGM has been stable the past three days at Rams -3.5, and it’s two-way action on the point spread. Los Angeles is taking 53% of spread bets, while 56% of spread dollars are on road underdog San Francisco. The total dipped from 47.5 to 46.5, with 54% of bets/68% of money on the Under.

Midweek at DraftKings, the Rams are -3.5 (-105), matching the opening line/price. The Rams have dipped to -3 multiple times already, including to -3 (-120) late this morning. Los Angeles is collecting 64% of tickets/60% of money on the spread at DK. The total toggled between 46.5 and 46, and is currently at 46, with 55% of tickets/60% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 6:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Los Angeles vanquished the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an absolutely wild finish to Sunday’s divisional-round clash. The Rams (14-5 SU, 10-9 ATS) almost pulled an Atlanta Falcons, blowing all of a 27-3 lead against Tom Brady (who helped the Patriots overcome a 28-3 deficit to Atlanta in Super Bowl 51).

But L.A. connected on two big pass plays in the final 40 seconds, the second of which was a 44-yard strike from Matthew Stafford to Cooper Kupp that set the Rams up at the Tampa Bay 12-yard line. Stafford killed the clock on the next play, and place-kicker Matt Gay came on and drilled a 30-yard field goal to give Los Angeles a 30-27 victory as a 3-point underdog.

The Rams head into the NFC Championship Game on a 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS surge.

Sixth-seeded San Francisco (12-7 SU, 11-8 ATS) is proving to be the road warrior of the NFL playoffs, even stretching to Week 18 of the regular season. That’s when the visiting 49ers rallied from a 17-0 deficit and knocked off the Rams 27-24 in overtime to clinch a playoff berth in the regular-season finale. San Francisco subsequently went to Dallas as a 3.5-point pup and won 23-17 on Super Wild Card Weekend.

Saturday night brought an even more stunning result. The 49ers went off as 6-point underdogs at No. 1 seed Green Bay and produced virtually no offense the entire game. But San Francisco blocked a punt for its only touchdown, which tied the game at 10 with 4:41 remaining. Following a defensive stop, the Niners drove down the field and won 13-10 on a final-seconds field goal, mimicking the Bengals-Titans result.

San Francisco is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games. The 49ers took both regular-season games against the Rams, rolling 31-10 as a 3.5-point Week 10 home underdog, along with the aforementioned Week 18 win. In fact, the Niners are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in their last six clashes with the Rams.

“We had a good discussion about the NFC game, and everyone in the room was between [Rams] -3.5 and -4. At the time, the Rams were up 27-3, and it looked like they would be heading into the NFC Championship off consecutive blowout playoff victories,” Murray said. “We opted to go with Rams -4, and our first bet was from a wiseguy who played the Rams because some offshore shops had opened it a little higher. Money soon came back the other way on the 49ers, as the market settled and the Bucs clawed back into the game. We finally turned the betting off after the Rams fumbled and nearly gave the game away.

“That was about as wild of a playoff game as I could ever remember watching in the book. At least until the very next game.”

By the time Rams-Bucs ended, Los Angeles was -3 (-120) in The SuperBook’s NFL conference championship odds market. Later in the evening, the Rams went to -3.5 (even), while the total was stable all night at 46.5.

“We saw sharp bets come in on the 49ers, and we think the number is going to close [at Rams -3] or lower,” Murray said. “The public is already betting San Francisco, as well. The 49ers are a hot team right now.”

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The Chiefs spent a very brief moment at -6.5 last Sunday night at WynnBet, before moving to -7 and sticking there the rest of the week. Kansas City is currently -7 (-122), with ticket count running 2/1 and money almost 5/1 on the Chiefs. The total opened at 51, shot to 54 by Monday morning and reached 54.5 Thursday afternoon. The Over is nabbing 72% of tickets/81% of money.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sportsbook opened Kansas City as a 6.5-point chalk Sunday night, and that lasted about an eyeblink before advancing to Chiefs -7. Tonight, K.C. is at -7 (-115), with ticket count running 2/1 and money 3/1 on the Chiefs. That includes a $110,000 Chiefs -6.5 play from a Nevada bettor.

“I think people thought that last week was the de facto AFC Championship Game,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “Whoever came out of Bills-Chiefs was going to be the Super Bowl favorite after the Packers lost. People are also more likely to choose the proven commodity with [Patrick] Mahomes and Co. over Joe Burrow and Co., just because it’s Burrow’s first time there. It’s possible it gets to 7.5. I’ve seen some other 7.5s floating around.”

The moneyline has a more diversity of opinion. As Pullen noted previously in these playoffs, public bettors like to take fliers on plus-money underdogs. In the case of this contest on the NFL Conference Championship odds board, 68% of moneyline tickets are on the Bengals — currently +285 — while 59% of moneyline cash is on the Chiefs (-345).

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Each Thursday, Caesars Sportsbook provides an update specifically on NFL totals. So that’s what we’ll give you here. The total opened at 51 and didn’t stay there for long, streaking to 53.5 by late Sunday night. On Monday, the number went to 54 and then to 54.5 for a couple of hours, before backing up to 54. On Tuesday, the total returned to 54.5, where it remains tonight.

Ticket count is 3/1 and money just short of 2/1 on the Over.

“There’s only two games, so I think we’re going to have a ton of action on both totals,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “There might be more of a consensus on this one, since it’s a higher total and people [are] thinking that this matchup just screams points. Starting from today, things will probably start to heat up, with more public money being thrown into the pot. We got a big bet on Under 54.5, so maybe that’s the number where the sharps will start to come in at.”

Indeed, a Nevada customer put $110,000 on Under 54.5, and another Nevada customer countered with $110,000 on Over 54.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: There’s an interesting dichotomy of betting on NFL conference championship odds, highlighted by information today from two sportsbooks.

BetMGM opened the Chiefs as a 7-point chalk and moved to 7.5 Monday. But the Bengals are netting 62% of point-spread tickets and 60% of point-spread cash, seemingly satisfied to get the touchdown and the hook on Cincinnati.

However, DraftKings hasn’t moved of Kansas City -7 this week, save for a couple juice adjustments. The Chiefs opened -7 (-105), got to -7 (-115) Tuesday, then went to 7 flat (-110) early today. Minus the attraction of the hook, DK is reporting 61% of tickets and 77% of money on the Chiefs.

The dichotomy extends to the moneyline, as well. At BetMGM, ticket count is 3/1-plus and money 2/1 on Cincinnati (+275). At DraftKings, Kansas City (-335) is seeing 58% of tickets/61% of money.

What bettors at both books — and really every book — agree on so far this week is the total going Over. BetMGM opened at 50.5 and shot to 53.5 very quickly Sunday night. Now, BetMGM is at 54.5, with tickets and money running 3/1 on the Over. DraftKings opened at 53.5 and on Monday afternoon got to 54 and then 54.5. Ticket count is 3/1 and money beyond 7/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 9:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Kansas City and Buffalo on Sunday night played arguably one of the greatest playoff games in NFL history. Which means, of course, it had to go to overtime. There were 25 points scored in the final two minutes of regulation, the last three of which came on a Chiefs field goal to tie the game at 36 as time expired.

Kansas City then got the ball to open the extra period, marched down the field and ended it on a Patrick Mahomes-to-Travis Kelce touchdown pass. The Chiefs (14-5 SU, 10-9 ATS) prevailed 42-36, cashing as a 2-point home favorite.

With that, Kansas City is in its fourth straight AFC final and is aiming to become the first team to play in three consecutive Super Bowls since the Buffalo Bills went to four in a row from 1990-1993.

After starting the season 3-4 SU, Kansas City is on an 11-1 SU tear (8-4 ATS). However, that one loss was at Cincinnati, 34-31 as a 3.5-point favorite in Week 17. In fact, that Bengals win clinched their playoff slot.

On the flip side, it’s definitely an eye-opener to see Cincinnati (12-7 SU and ATS) on the AFC Championship odds board. The Bengals, who took the No. 4 seed by winning the AFC North, hadn’t won a playoff game in 31 seasons. Cincy fixed that with a Super Wild Card Weekend home win over the Raiders.

Then came the Saturday surprise in the divisional round. Cincinnati was a 4-point underdog at No. 1 seed Tennessee and never trailed, ultimately winning 19-16 on a final-seconds field goal.

“AFC Championship Game openers were Chiefs -7, with a total of 50.5,” Murray said. “The total jumped up in a hurry, between sharp players taking the Over and the market coming in higher, and we are now at 53.5. Nothing to report on the side yet. We know the public will be betting Kansas City with both hands, but we do anticipate sharp play on Cincinnati.

“I think the two best teams in the NFL were the Packers and the Bills, and they’re both gone. So I would have to say the Chiefs are the highest power-rated team left.”