Remember when you were a kid and your mom told you roughly 27 times a week, “Don’t take candy from strangers!”? (Unless it’s Halloween, then take as much candy from strangers as you can get your grubby hands on.)
Well, right now, NFL favorites are the creepy guy circling the neighborhood in a windowless van — and they’ve got more candy than Willy Wonka. And so we kick off Week 11’s NFL Betting Trends Report by turning into your mom: Don’t take candy from NFL favorites!
No, seriously. Unless it’s the Green Bay Packers or Dallas Cowboys laying points, stay the hell away from NFL favorites. Because the only people profiting from them right now are bankruptcy attorneys.
All statistics are based on closing numbers per VegasInsider.com.
| Trends | Last Week | Season Overall |
| Favorites SU | 7-6-1 | 89-60-1 |
| Favorites ATS | 5-9 | 63-86-1 |
| Over/Under | 5-9 | 66-82-2 |
A Doggone Good Run
We know there’s a good chance you’re thinking, “They must be exaggerating; underdogs can’t be that strong of an NFL betting trend!” We know this because we can be prone to hyperbole at times. Let us review the bookends to Week 10 to assure you this is not one of those times:
Last week began with an underdog mired in a 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 ATS slump catching 8.5 points at home. It ended with an underdog that was 0-4 SU and ATS at home catching 3.5 points. Those two teams — the Dolphins on Thursday and 49ers on Monday — won outright … by a combined score of 53-20.
In between, four more underdogs pulled off upsets (Washington, Vikings, Panthers, and Eagles); one covered the spread in a game that ended in a tie (Lions); and two cashed in losses (Saints and Jaguars).
We are in a golden age of hilariously ignorning conventional "take the points on the road" wisdom.
— Props (@PropsUS) November 16, 2021
In all, underdogs went 9-5 ATS in Week 10. Throw in a 10-4-1 ATS effort in Week 8 and a 10-4 ATS mark in Week 9, and NFL underdogs are 29-13-1 ATS since Halloween weekend.
And it’s not like these ’dogs are only barking at the betting window. Over the past three weeks, favorites and underdogs are dead even on the scoreboard at 21-21-1. This includes nine outright upsets by teams that took the field as an underdog of 6.5 points or more.
Which leads us to another ongoing NFL betting trend: Since Week 8, favorites of 6 points or more are only 10-9-1 SU and 3-16-1 ATS.
So of course Week 11 begins with a 7-point road favorite (Patriots at Falcons on Thursday) … and ends with an 11-point home chalk (Bucs vs. Giants on Monday) … with five more favorites laying at least 6 points on Sunday.
Numbers ‘Favor’ Green Bay, Dallas
Just how much of a grind has it been for favorites in 2021? They’ve “won” the week just three times. And those were modest wins in Weeks 5-7, when chalk went 9-7 ATS, 8-6 ATS, and 7-6 ATS. (Week 4 was a push at 8-8).
As noted in the chart above, underdogs are now 86-63-1 ATS for the season, good for a 57.3 percent success rate. And that includes the Packers (6-1 ATS as a favorite) and Cowboys (5-1 ATS) — the only NFL teams having success as a chalk. Remove Green Bay and Dallas from the equation, and underdogs are cashing at a 61.3 percent clip (84-52-1 ATS).
The Packers (9-1 ATS, including nine consecutive spread covers) and Cowboys (8-1 ATS) each covered as favorites in Week 10 and continue to sit 1-2 in the point-spread rankings. Both squads also have been nearly perfect on the road, with Dallas going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS as a visitor, and Green Bay registering a dominant 5-0 SU and ATS record since its Week 1 loss to the Saints in Jacksonville.
Could a regression be coming? Oddsmakers seem to be hinting at such. The Packers are just a 2.5-point favorite this week at Minnesota, which is 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 2.5-point underdogs at Kansas City — even though the Chiefs have gotten the money just once in their last 12 regular-season and playoff games at Arrowhead Stadium, going 0-5 ATS this season.
Follow The Money
At home, on the road, as a favorite, as an underdog — no doubt, Green Bay and Dallas have gotten it done for bettors all season. But they’re not the only teams delivering the goods. Despite coming up short against the number last week, the Titans and Cardinals are still 7-3 ATS overall, with Tennessee cashing in six of its last seven.
Arizona is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS as a visitor, and this week the Cardinals — who hope to get QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins back after both missed the past two games with injuries — are a slim 2.5-point favorite at Seattle.
Other noteworthy NFL betting trends this week:
— Given how much favorites have struggled of late, Tampa Bay laying 11 points against the Giants on Monday seems a bit much. However, the Bucs are 3-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite this year (as opposed to 0-5 ATS as a single-digit chalk; their loss to the Rams was a pick ’em).
— The Colts (+7 at Buffalo) are 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall, including three straight covers on the road.
— The Saints (+1.5 at Philadelphia) barely got inside the number at Tennessee in Week 10 to move to 4-0 ATS as an underdog (compared with 1-4 ATS as a chalk). However, New Orleans has alternated spread covers in all nine games so far.
— While the Vikings (+2.5 vs. Green Bay) have struggled to cash tickets at home, they improved to 4-0 ATS as a ’dog with last week’s victory at the Chargers.
Meanwhile, two negative point-spread trends will butt heads in Chicago, where the Ravens (-6.5) put their 1-6 ATS record as a favorite up against the Bears’ 2-5 ATS mark as an underdog.
Let’s Have A Conference
Baltimore at Chicago is one of five cross-conference matchups in Week 11. That’s notable because of two ongoing AFC vs. NFC betting trends: The NFC is 30-19 ATS (61.2%) against the AFC this season, and the Under is 31-17-1 (63.3%) in those 49 contests.
In addition to Ravens-Bears, which has a consensus total of 45.5, this week’s AFC-NFC battles are:
- Patriots (-7, 47.5) at Falcons
- Browns (-9.5, 44.5) vs. Lions
- 49ers (-6.5, 46) at Jaguars
- Chiefs (-2.5, 55.5) vs. Cowboys
Of that quartet of contests, Detroit at Cleveland stands out for one reason: The Lions, who cashed in their 16-16 tie at Pittsburgh last week, have (like New Orleans) alternated ATS wins and losses in every game. The Browns, who got hammered 45-7 at New England in Week 10, have alternated spread-covers in their last five.
Over Here, Under There
Thanks to the low-scoring upset victories by the Dolphins and 49ers last week, two prime-time NFL betting trends continue to pay dividends.
First, underdogs are now 21-9 ATS (but only 11-19 SU) in Thursday/Sunday/Monday night games. Also, in the past seven weeks, the Under is 14-7 in prime-time contests, with seven of the past eight Thursday night affairs staying low.
Accordingly, backing the Falcons +7 against the Patriots and rolling with Under 47.5 on Thursday seems like a layup. Except New England has covered in four consecutive games and gone Over the total in five of its last six. (Combined totals in those five Overs: 47, 64, 67, 51, 52.)
Despite those recent Patriots shootouts, the Under is connecting at 54.7 percent for the season (82-66-2). Teams in the midst of lengthy Under trends include the Packers (7-0 last seven, including 4-0 on the road); Lions (6-1 last seven and 4-0 this season on the road); Washington (4-0 last four); Chiefs (4-1 last five); and Vikings (4-0 this season at home).
Those squads riding Over trends with the Patriots include the Saints (5-1 overall), Bucs (3-1 at home this season), and Giants (3-1 this season on the road).
ATS Standings
Best:
Packers 9-1
Cowboys 8-1
Cardinals 7-3
Titans 7-3
Colts 6-4
Patriots 6-4
Worst:
Washington 2-7
Jets 2-7
Chiefs 3-7
Buccaneers 3-6
49ers 3-6
Ravens 3-6
Steelers 3-6
Over/Under Standings:
Over:
Jets 6-3
Browns 6-4
Colts 6-4
Titans 6-4
Under:
Seahawks 1-7-1
Broncos 2-8
Packers 2-8
Jaguars 2-7
Steelers 2-6-1
Panthers 3-7
