We’ve got a primetime Wild Card showdown Monday night at Acrisure Stadium, where the Houston Texans (12-5) head to Pittsburgh as 3-point favorites against the Steelers (10-7). This game has everything: Aaron Rodgers’ first playoff appearance in a Steelers uniform, Pittsburgh’s decade-long playoff win drought, and a scorching-hot Texans defense that’s been suffocating offenses all season. With a rock-bottom 38.5 over/under, Vegas is expecting a defensive slugfest under the lights. We’ll dive into our best NFL bets today, including Steelers vs Texans predictions, player prop bets, and odds for Monday’s huge playoff matchup.
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Steelers vs Texans Betting Preview: NFL Predictions Today
Here’s the storyline nobody in Pittsburgh wants to talk about. The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since 2016. That’s nearly a decade of postseason heartbreak. They’ve lost six straight playoff games under Mike Tomlin, including four consecutive wild-card round exits. Most recently, they fell to the Ravens last year, continuing this brutal stretch that’s defined the back half of Tomlin’s otherwise legendary tenure.
The Texans started 0-3 for the second time in franchise history and somehow salvaged their season by winning 12 of their last 14 games. They’re the first team in NFL history with multiple 0-3 starts that made the playoffs (also did it in 2018), and they finished with 12 wins for the first time since 2012. That’s an absurd turnaround driven by two things: C.J. Stroud’s maturation and the NFL’s stingiest defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans Today
Rodgers, the 42-year-old future Hall of Famer, signed with Pittsburgh in the 2025 offseason after his turbulent Jets stint, and he’s been exactly what the Steelers needed: steady, efficient, experienced. Rodgers threw for 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just 7 interceptions with a 94.8 passer rating in 16 games.
Nothing flashy, but he protected the football and made the offense functional. The question is whether his legendary playoff experience (11-10 career postseason record, Super Bowl champion) can finally break this curse.
The Steelers’ offense ranked 15th in scoring (23.4 PPG), but they’ve been anemic on the ground – 26th in rushing (103.3 yards/game). Kenneth Gainwell, signed from Philly, provided dual-threat capability (537 rushing yards, 486 receiving yards, 8 combined TDs), but he’s not scaring anyone.
The real weapon is DK Metcalf, acquired from Seattle via trade in the offseason. Metcalf’s size and speed give Rodgers a red-zone monster, and Adam Thielen adds veteran savvy at receiver.
The matchup to watch is on the other side of the ball. T.J. Watt against Houston’s offensive line. If Watt can wreck Stroud’s rhythm and force him into bad decisions, Pittsburgh is very live to pull the upset.
Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Today
Stroud threw for 3,041 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in 14 games (missed 3 with injury), posting a 92.9 passer rating. He’s not putting up MVP numbers, but he’s protecting the football and letting his defense win games.
Nico Collins has been his go-to playmaker all season – 71 catches for 1,117 yards and 6 TDs (tied-9th in the NFL in receiving yards). That 15.7 yards-per-catch average shows Collins isn’t just a volume guy; he’s making explosive plays downfield.
The Texans’ defense is the story. They ranked #1 in the NFL in points allowed (17.4 PPG) and #2 in total defense. Will Anderson Jr. had a breakout season with 12 sacks (career-high), while Danielle Hunter led the team with 15 sacks. That pass-rush duo is going to terrorize Rodgers all night, and Pittsburgh’s offensive line hasn’t been great at protecting the pocket.
Steelers vs Texans Odds & How To Watch Today’s NFL Game
PIT-HOU Betting Odds:
- Spread: Texans -3
- Moneyline: Steelers +126, Texans (implied -150)
- Over/Under: 38.5
How to Watch:
- Date: Monday, January 12, 2026
- Time: 8:15 PM ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
- TV: ABC and ESPN (Simulcast)
- Streaming: ESPN app, NFL+, Fubo, DirecTV Stream
- Announcers: Joe Buck (play-by-play), Troy Aikman (analyst), Lisa Salters & Laura Rutledge (sideline reporters)
NFL BETTING ODDS
| Player |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Rodgers
PIT
QB HOU @ PIT
Today
8:15 PM ET
|
- | - | ||||||||
C.J. Stroud
HOU
QB HOU @ PIT
Today
8:15 PM ET
|
- | - | ||||||||
Bo Nix
DEN
QB BUF @ DEN
Jan 17
TBD
|
- | - | - | - | - | |||||
Brock Purdy
SF
QB SF @ SEA
Jan 17
TBD
|
- | - | - | - | ||||||
Josh Allen
BUF
QB BUF @ DEN
Jan 17
TBD
|
- | - | - | - | - | |||||
Sam Darnold
SEA
QB SF @ SEA
Jan 17
TBD
|
- | - | - | - | ||||||
Caleb Williams
CHI
QB LAR @ CHI
Jan 18
1:00 PM ET
|
- | - | - | - | - | |||||
Matthew Stafford
LAR
QB LAR @ CHI
Jan 18
1:00 PM ET
|
- | - | - | - | - |
Steelers vs Texans Props (Jan. 12)
Here are some popular Steelers vs Texans props for tonight’s AFC Wild Card playoff matchup:
NFL Bets Today: Our Expert Picks For Steelers vs Texans
This game seems like it could be an ugly, defensive slugfest between two teams that have historically prided themselves on tenacious defense.
Nothing has changed with Aaron Rodgers. He wants to get the ball out quickly, and he might not have a choice against the Texans’ defensive line. Kudos to OC Arthur Smith, who has deployed Kenneth Gainwell in an appropriate role. I expect a ton of quick stuff to him again, which has been a common theme in the second half of the season.
On the flip side, it’s Nico Collins. Stroud and this passing attack won’t do world-beater-type of numbers, but he’s the go-to weapon for good reason. Corner Jalen Ramsey and the rest of the Pittsburgh secondary have been pretty disappointing this year, ranking toward the bottom of the league in catchable targets allowed.
- NFL PLAYER PROP BET: Kenneth Gainwell > 30.5 Receiving Yards
- NFL PLAYER PROP BET: Nico Collins > 4.5 Receptions
