Here we go with NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props for the West Region!
So far, the chalk has advanced in this quadrant of the bracket, meaning we have two fantastic matchups on tap Thursday.
No. 1 seed Gonzaga and No. 4 seed Arkansas take the court first at the Chase Center in San Francisco in what’s expected to be an up-tempo clash that lights up the scoreboard. The nightcap features defensive-minded No. 3 seed Texas Tech, which is actually a slight favorite against second-seeded Duke.
Props.com breaks down four available NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props for both of Thursday’s West Region contests.
Odds via PointsBet USA as of 1:45 p.m. ET on March 24.
NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props: Gonzaga Vs. Arkansas
Time: 7:09 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS
Spread/Total: Gonzaga -10/154.5 (Under -115)
First-Half Spread
The prop: Gonzaga in the first half (vs. Arkansas)
The odds: Gonzaga -3.5 (-140)/Arkansas +3.5 (+110)
If you recall, Gonzaga got off to a slow start in the first round against Georgia State. The mighty Zags, who went off as massive 22.5-point favorites, owned a slim 35-33 halftime lead before eventually rolling to a 93-72 victory.
Gonzaga’s start was even slower in the Round of 32, as Memphis took a 41-31 advantage into the locker room. Naismith Trophy candidate Drew Timme caught fire in the second half, and the Bulldogs advanced to the Sweet 16 with a hard-fought 82-78 victory.
However, one has to wonder if this is merely a two-game aberration or a start of a trend.
Without a doubt, Gonzaga coach Mark Few has addressed the matter with his squad in practice this week. On the other hand, Gonzaga is a fast-paced, jump-shooting team that sometimes takes a while to find its rhythm.
Meanwhile, Arkansas held a halftime lead in both its opening-weekend Tournament games, and did so with relative easy. The Hogs bested Vermont by seven and New Mexico State by nine in the first 20 minutes.
Obviously, playing up in class against Gonzaga presents a different challenge for the Razorbacks. But the Zags barely held a first-half lead against a No. 16 seed last Thursday, then came back 48 hours later and trailed by 10 to a No. 9 seed. Jump on Arkansas +3.5 at plus money, and let’s see if Gonzaga’s slow-start tendencies surface once again.
Arkansas Razorbacks: F Jaylin Williams
The prop: 11.5 points
The odds: Over -105/Under -125
Several reasons to play this player prop Over the number PointsBet USA, and here are some of them:
- Williams has scored 12-plus points in 13 of his last 18 games, including a 13-point effort against Vermont in last week’s opening round.
- According to KenPom, Gonzaga plays at the sixth-fastest pace in college basketball. The means more possessions than usual for Arkansas (and Williams) to score.
- Williams played the entire game (40 minutes) in Arkansas’ second-round win against New Mexico State. He had an off night shooting from the field (3-for-10) and finished with just 10 points. But he was on the floor for the duration — which, you know, is kind of crucial when betting the Over on a player prop.
All that said, there’s one major obstacle standing in the way of Williams eclipsing this point total: foul trouble. Gonzaga’s front line of Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren have a penchant for drawing fouls.
If Williams can avoid the whistles and play 35-40 minutes, he should breeze Over 11.5 points.
NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Props: Duke Vs. Texas Tech
Time: 9:39 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS
Spread/Total: PK/136.5
Total Points: Duke Blue Devils
The prop: Duke 68.5 total points
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
According to KenPom, Duke ranks sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Blue Devils have reached at least 69 points in 11 of their last 13 games. So what gives with this prop? Why is this plus-money to the Over?
The answer to that question is Duke’s opponent. Texas Tech has the top defense in the country, ranking first overall in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Red Raiders also play slow, ranking 217th in tempo. That’s a recipe for Unders, especially when it comes to opponents’ point totals.
Duke has failed to score 69 points only three times in 15 contests since the start of February. Two of those came against Virginia, a defensive-oriented team that plays slow. In fact, Virginia is the ACC’s version of Texas Tech: methodical on offense and in your face on defense. You better believe the Red Raiders, who can’t match Duke’s overall athleticism, will do everything they can to control tempo and keep this one low-scoring.
It would be nice not to have to lay extra juice. But the fact it’s there tells us that oddsmakers expect a much different pace than Gonzaga-Arkansas.
Duke Blue Devils: F Wendell Moore Jr.
The prop: 12.5 points
The odds: Over -110/Under -120
If we’re recommending playing Duke’s total points Under the total, you probably know where we’re going with this one. To repeat what was just stated: Texas Tech has the best defense in the country and plays at a relatively slow pace. Here’s the translation as it pertains to Moore’s points prop: Fewer possessions for Moore and the Blue Devils, and those offensive sets will be met with more resistance than usual.
Earlier, I outlined that Duke’s low-scoring games against Virginia serve as adequate comparisons to its matchup with Texas Tech. Well, Moore only scored 9 and 4 points in two meetings against Virginia this season.
There wasn’t a whole lot of defense played in the ACC this season, as North Carolina led the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency, ranking just 43rd nationally. Moore’s point totals in two games against the Tar Heels: 13 and 8 points.
Texas Tech represents the best defense Moore and the Blue Devils will see to this point in their season (yes, better than Virginia and UNC). Because of that, there’s only way to bet this prop: Under.
