With NBA training camps opening this week, Props.com offers a breakdown of the league’s 30 teams from an NBA season win total perspective. So far, we have previewed the Atlantic, Central, Southeast, and Pacific divisions. Now we focus on what figures to be a tightly contested Northwest division.
Unlike last season, when the COVID-19 pandemic forced the league to reduce the regular season to 72 games, the NBA returns to an 82-game schedule in 2021-22.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings and updated as of 4:30 p.m. ET on Sept. 28.
Utah Jazz
NBA Season Win Total Projection: 51.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)
2020-21 Record: 52-20 (1st in Northwest)
Projected Starters: Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Royce O’Neale, Bojan Bogdanovic
— After finishing with the NBA’s top regular-season record last year, the Jazz enter 2021-22 in rarefied air, at least as far as their projected win total relates to the franchise’s recent history. Consider: While Utah notched 51 wins in 2016-17 and 50 wins in 2018-19, it hasn’t eclipsed this 51.5 total in an 82-game season since going 53-29 in 2009-10. On the bright side, the club has averaged 47.3 wins during the last five full regular seasons (2015-19), so there’s a good chance the Jazz at least will be in range of hitting the Over this season.
— How good was Utah in the regular season last year? Of its 52 victories, 39 were by double digits and eight of its 20 losses were by five points or less. Now you know why the Jazz were the third-best spread-covering team last year (47-36-1 ATS), ranking behind only the Knicks and (46-30-1 ATS) and Suns (55-38-1 ATS).
— The Jazz produced four prolonged winning streaks last year, covering five, nine, nine, and 11 games. Conversely, Utah never lost more than twice in a row (until the postseason).
— Last season, the Jazz owned top-five rankings in a handful of offensive categories: first in three-pointers made (16.7 per game), third in scoring offense (116.4 points per contest), third in offensive rebounds (10.6 per game), and fourth in three-point shooting (38.9 percent).
— The toughest stretch of Utah’s 2021-22 schedule: During an 11-game span from March 14-April 2, the Jazz host the Bulls, Clippers, Lakers, and defending champion Bucks, while also traveling to New York, Brooklyn, Boston, Charlotte, Dallas, Golden State, and Los Angeles (Clippers).
Denver Nuggets
NBA Season Win Total Projection: 47.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)
2020-21 Record: 47-25 (2nd in Northwest)
Projected Starters: Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, Monte Morris
— Even including the last two pandemic-shortened seasons, the Nuggets have averaged 48.3 wins the past four years. However, despite winning at least 46 games in each of those four campaigns, Denver has reached the 48-win plateau in an 82-game season just once since 2012-13.
— The Nuggets’ ability to get Over this projection ultimately will hinge on if/when star guard Jamal Murray (ACL surgery in April) returns to the lineup. Before getting injured, Murray was enjoying career highs in scoring (21.2 points per game) and three-point shooting (40.8 percent).
— Last season, the Nuggets led all Northwest comers in divisional record (9-3) and overtime wins (four). Denver also tied Portland for the division’s best road mark (22-14).
— The NBA schedule-makers didn’t do the Nuggets any favors. From Jan. 11-Feb. 11, Denver will encounter a steady stream of elite or emerging opponents: the Jazz, Lakers, Clippers, Blazers, Pelicans, Knicks, and Nets at home, along with trips to Milwaukee, Boston, Utah, Los Angeles (Clippers), and New Orleans. Even visits to Detroit and Minnesota during this stretch won’t be gimmes.
Portland Trail Blazers
NBA Season Win Total Projection: 44.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)
2020-21 Record: 42-30 (3rd in Northwest)
Projected Starters: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Norman Powell, Robert Covington
— The betting market has fairly high hopes this season for the Blazers, considering the franchise has won 44 games or fewer in four of the last eight seasons that featured a full 82-game schedule. Then again, Dame Lillard and crew did go 53-29 and 49-33 in the past two full seasons (2017-18, 2018-19).
— Portland was one of the NBA’s most proficient offensive teams last season, posting top-six finishes in scoring (116.1 points per game), three-pointers made (15.7 per contest) and three-point shooting (38.5 percent).
— Last year, the Blazers strung together five separate streaks of four-plus wins. On the down side, a 3-8 slide during March and April was the only substantial blip on the seasonal radar.
— Portland annually ranks among the league leaders in travel miles logged. Now the Blazers get to deal with this in 2021-22: They must play five games in seven nights five different times this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA Season Win Total Projection: 35.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
2020-21 Record: 23-49 (4th in Northwest)
Projected Starters: Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Jaden McDaniels
— The Timberwolves had a rough go of it during the past two pandemic-shortened seasons, winning just 42 of a possible 136 games, which pencils out to a .308 winning percentage. And while they did post 36 and 47 victories in the previous two campaigns, they have hurdled this win total just one other time since 2005-06.
— As you might guess from a team that finished 26 games under.500, Minnesota didn’t enjoy many easy nights last year, posting only eight double-digit victories. The young Timberwolves also endured four separate losing skids of four-plus games. The good news? None of the losing streaks took place after the All-Star break in early March.
Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA Season Win Total Projection: 23.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)
2020-21 Record: 22-50 (5th in Northwest)
Projected Starters: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Darius Bazley, Isaiah Roby, Aleksej Pokusevski
— Oklahoma City enjoyed an unparalleled run of success for 11 seasons from 2009-10 through 2019-20, winning at least 44 games every year—including five 50-plus-win seasons—while making the playoffs 10 times. Last year, though, the bottom fell out for the Thunder, who posted their worst winning percentage (.306) since going 23-59 (.280) in 2008-09.
— How bad did things get down the stretch for the Thunder last season? They dropped 26 of their final 29 games, including 15 losses of 15 points or more.
— We could mention the difficult portions of Oklahoma City’s 2021-22 schedule, but to do so would require us to … list the entire schedule. Suffice to say, this is a franchise in the throes of a major rebuild, so while 23 victories in an 82-game season doesn’t sound all that difficult, it very well could be for this team.
