With the 2021-22 NBA regular season set to launch Tuesday, Props.com breaks down the five preseason favorites to take home league MVP honors, along with two intriguing long shots that could be worth monitoring.
Something to keep in mind before opening your betting app of choice and placing a wager on the 2021-22 NBA MVP: You probably should stick with players from elite-level teams. That’s because the last 10 NBA MVPs (Derrick Rose, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic) cumulatively won 74.9 percent of their games in their respective MVP campaigns. For an 82-game season, that shakes out to an average of 61.4 victories.
MVP odds courtesy of DraftKings, FanDuel, Circa Sports, and TwinSpires, and have been updated as of 2 p.m. Oct. 13.
PG/SG Luka Dončić, Mavericks
Circa Sports: +550
DraftKings: +380
FanDuel: +500
TwinSpires: +400
2020-21 averages: 27.7 points, 8.6 assists, 8.0 rebounds, 1.0 steal, 47.9% FG, 35.0% 3-point FG
— Dončić might be the NBA’s most indispensable asset, dutifully carrying a Mavericks franchise that doesn’t have the roster quality or depth of other Western Conference contenders. Exhibit A: Dončić attempted 20-plus shots 41 times last year, more than half of the club’s 72 regular-season games. By comparison, league MVP Nikola Jokic tossed up 20 or more shots only 26 times.
— The Mavericks won 57.8 percent of their games during the past two pandemic-shortened seasons, which extrapolates to 47.4 wins in a standard 82-game campaign. (Oddly enough, Dallas’ season win total is pegged at 48.5 wins.) Would that be enough to get Dončić the majority of MVP votes? Probably not, based on the recent history noted above. However, Russell Westbrook claimed the 2017 MVP while shepherding Oklahoma City to only 47 victories. Of course, Westbrook had an historic season, averaging a triple-double of 31.6 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 10.4 assists (along with 1.6 steals) per game. If the Mavericks don’t pile up the wins, Dončić probably would have to do something similar to win his first MVP.
SF Kevin Durant, Nets
Circa Sports: +500
DraftKings: +600
FanDuel: +650
TwinSpires: +700
2020-21 averages: 26.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.3 blocks, 0.7 steals, 53.7% FG, 45.0% 3-point FG
— Why isn’t the best basketball player on the planet favored to win the MVP? Probably because the Nets have no motivation for playing Durant 75-plus games this season, let alone asking him to log 40-plus minutes a night, given his age (33) and the fact he’s only two seasons removed from an Achilles tear. What’s more, Brooklyn’s rotational roster of Durant, James Harden, Kyrie Irving (maybe), Joe Harris, Patty Mills, Paul Millsap, and Blake Griffin has been constructed with the postseason in mind — not necessarily chasing wins on random December/January nights. Then again …
— If the Nets are serious about prohibiting Irving from playing, at least until the All-Star guard submits to a COVID-19 vaccination, this might put pressure on Durant and Harden to log more regular-season minutes. But that likely would be only a modest bump. Case in point: Excluding non-overtime and non-playoff games, Durant last season eclipsed the 40-minute mark just three times.
PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Circa Sports:+500
DraftKings: +900
FanDuel: +700
TwinSpires: +700
2020-21 averages: 28.1 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.2 steals, 56.9% FG, 30.3% 3-point FG
— Is there such a thing as ‘Giannis Fatigue’ among MVP voters? The Greek Freak’s stats last year nearly mirrored his per-game averages over the past four seasons (28.0 points, 11.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.2 steals, 56 percent shooting). And yet, Giannis never factored into last year’s MVP battle, finishing a distant fourth.
— With Milwaukee riding high as defending NBA champions, the abbreviated summer break may lessen the club’s desire to go all-out for home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs. By proxy, Antetokounmpo might play less than 70 games, which might not sit well with voters. (For the record, he played in 72 of 82 games during the 2018-19 season, en route to his first MVP trophy.)
C Joel Embiid, 76ers
Circa Sports:+1000
DraftKings: +700
FanDuel: +800
TwinSpires: +700
2020-21 averages: 28.5 points, 10.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.4 blocks, 1.0 steal, 51.3% FG, 37.7% 3-point FG
— Does Ben Simmons genuinely want to play for the Sixers? Or is his ballyhooed training-camp return a prelude to another James Harden situation? (Last year, Harden showed up late to Rockets training camp, then passive-aggressively forced his way out of Houston and onto a title contender.) The nuanced answer could have a major impact on Philadelphia’s battle for the East’s No. 1 seed, along with Embiid’s MVP chances.
— Embiid definitely possesses MVP-caliber talent. However, he does not possess an MVP-caliber medical chart. Embiid has never logged more than 64 games in a regular season. If this trend continues in 2022, his MVP odds likely would drop precipitously by midseason.
— Interestingly, DraftKings has Embiid as a tangible favorite over Giannis Antetokounmpo and Stephen Curry in the MVP race; but the reverse holds true at Circa, where Embiid (+1000) trails the former MVPs substantially.
PG/SG Stephen Curry, Warriors
Circa Sports:+675
DraftKings: +900
FanDuel: +800
TwinSpires: +800
2020-21 averages: 32.0 points, 5.8 assists, 5.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 48.2% FG, 42.1% 3-point FG
— Outside of flying the team plane on road trips, Curry carried the Warriors in nearly every possible way last season. Curry led the NBA in points (2,015), three-pointers made (337), and scoring average (32.0). The two-time MVP also connected on double-digit triples seven times last year, a mind-blowing stat for anyone, let alone a guy playing in his 12th NBA campaign.
— The 2021-22 Warriors should have their deepest and most versatile roster in three years, thanks to the long-awaited return of fellow sharpshooter Klay Thompson (missed last two seasons with injuries), the rapid ascension of Jordan Poole (averaged 17.8 in his final nine games last season), and the additions of rookie first-rounders Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody. A deep roster means teams won’t be able to double-team Curry as frequently, which in theory would boost Curry’s shooting percentages, scoring opportunities, and MVP chances.
Long Shots
C Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
DraftKings odds: +1500
Russell Westbrook may be hindering Jokic’s chances of collecting back-to-back MVP trophies. Jokic’s 18 triple-doubles from last season would have been a supreme accomplishment in any other era. However, when compared with Westbrook’s 39 triple-doubles with the Wizards, it diminishes Jokic’s repeat-MVP hype.
C Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves
DraftKings odds: +3000
James Harden (+2000 at DraftKings), Trae Young (+2000), and Devin Booker (+2500) make for sturdier MVP long-shot bets, given how each shined in last year’s playoffs. However, Towns — who shot 49 percent and averaged 24.8 points, 10.6 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.1 blocks last season — finally has the high-level complementary pieces (Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell, Patrick Beverley, and Josh Okogie) to lift the Timberwolves out of obscurity, and into the playoffs. Perhaps Towns will morph into the Joel Embiid of the West.
