2025 NBA Finals: Thunder vs. Pacers Best Bets & Player Props

The 2025 NBA Finals are finally set for the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers. There are plenty of player props to look at, so our NBA experts will analyze the landscape for each game to give their daily best bets.

The 2025 NBA playoffs were certainly a memorable one, and not many people predicted these two teams to be at the top of each conference after the dust settled.

The Thunder have reached their first Finals since 2012 behind MVP Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and a young core, while the Pacers handled the Knicks in an Eastern Conference slugfest behind rising star Tyrese Haliburton and a relentless young group of shooters.

2025 NBA Finals Player Props, Best Bets & Expert Picks

In this article series, our experts will examine the sportsbooks and pick’em platforms to find the best picks for each 2025 NBA Finals game between Oklahoma City and Indiana.

Thunder vs. Pacers Game 1 Best Bets

Chet Holmgren Over 16.5 Points

Holmgren’s scoring has been all over the place in the postseason, but I’m impressed with his production. Minnesota has a tenacious interior defense, which helped post the fourth-best defensive rating by any playoff team in the 2025 postseason.

The Pacers should be a huge step down in terms of resistance, as they have coughed up the sixth-most points in the paint per game during the regular season. Indiana played at the third-fastest postseason pace (and OKC ranked second), and Chet has shown the willingness to run the floor. My biggest fear of taking any OKC prop is a blowout, considering Indiana gutted out an emotional and physically taxing series against the Knicks.

Obi Toppin Over 1.5 First Quarter Points

Toppin was a huge factor for the Pacers off the bench against the Knicks. I’m expecting him to continue to have a big role, and he’s going to have to provide some energy and usage against the best team in basketball.

In the last three games against New York, Toppin played roughly between 4 and 6+ minutes in the first quarter, and he found a way to score at least a bucket in each game. Again, every game is different, and the Thunder are a different beast defensively compared to the Knicks (or almost anyone), but I think Toppin will come in and continue to fire for Indy. He recorded at least a 23% usage rate in three of his last four appearances.

Where to bet: Obi Toppin Over 1.5 First Quarter Points (-128) | FanDuel

2025 NBA Finals Game 1 Odds

Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -9
Total: O/U 231.5
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook

NBA Finals Player Prop Strategy

In a fast-paced, youth-fueled NBA Finals featuring the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder, the prop betting market is wide open with opportunities. With two of the quickest teams in the league—both in transition frequency and offensive decision-making—this series is built for high possessions, streaky shooting, and unpredictable rotations.

That’s exactly the kind of environment savvy bettors can exploit. Below is your complete breakdown for how to approach player props for every key player and angle in the 2025 NBA Finals.

Indiana Pacers

Indiana has bulldozed through the Eastern Conference with a blistering pace and unmatched efficiency. They’ve beaten Milwaukee and Cleveland 4-1, then closed out New York 4-2.

Pictured: Underdog NBA projections for the series

The Pacers lead all playoff teams with a 61.7% true shooting percentage and are first in half-court efficiency (105.7 points per 100 plays). Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam are the central creators, but Indiana’s secret weapon is the collective speed and decisiveness of its rotation. They pass quickly, attack early in possessions, and avoid wasted dribbles.

Pacers Prop Betting Notes

— Indiana scores fast and often—lean Over on team points props if lines aren’t already inflated.

— Because they share the ball and touch time is low, individual assist props are high-risk except for Haliburton.

— Haliburton’s assist and 3PM props are playable—he touches the ball on nearly every trip and plays in transition-friendly spots.

— Siakam’s points + rebounds could be valuable against OKC’s small-ball lineups if they go away from Hartenstein.

— Avoid Turner rebound overs; Indiana doesn’t crash the glass hard and prioritizes getting back on defense.

Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC is the deeper, more physically dominant and disciplined team. They swept Memphis, won a war against Denver in 7, then crushed Minnesota 4-1. They’re second in limiting transition and fast-break scoring and averaged a league-best 142 points per 100 transition plays.

Pictured: Underdog NBA projections for the series

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads with elite midrange shot-making, Jalen Williams is the do-it-all connector, and Chet Holmgren can stretch the floor or anchor the paint.

Thunder Prop Betting Notes

— Gilgeous-Alexander Points + FTA props are priority bets—he consistently draws fouls, controls pace, and gets 15+ midrange attempts nightly.

— Holmgren 3PM and blocks props are sharp angles—he’ll stretch Turner out and help from the weak side on Indy slashers.

— Williams’ PRA props (points + rebounds + assists) should see value due to mismatches and secondary facilitation.

— Watch for Lu Dort 3PM overs or steals props if his usage in corner offense and defense on Haliburton stays high.

— OKC role players (Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace) can spike in props markets game-to-game—look for injury/in-game adjustment cues before betting.

General NBA Finals Prop Betting Strategy

The 2025 NBA Finals will be defined by tempo, depth, and shot-making volume. That creates a unique prop betting environment where star usage, bench volatility, and possession counts are all critical.

Target Stars in Pace-Driven Matchups

This series is going to be lightning-fast. That creates more possessions, more scoring chances, and more volatility in box scores. This favors high-usage stars like Haliburton and Gilgeous-Alexander for points, assists, and combo props.

Don’t Trust Rebounds Overs for Pacers Bigs

Indiana gets back on defense instead of crashing the offensive boards. Unless OKC’s spacing collapses, Turner and Siakam rebounding props are risky. Look to OKC wings like Williams or Dort for rebounding overs instead.

Bet Haliburton Assists + 3PM in Wins, Fades in Losses

When Indiana wins, it’s usually off hot shooting and tempo control. Haliburton’s assists and 3-pointers made go way up in those scenarios. If you’re betting Indiana to win or cover, pair with his assists over or combo props.

Gilgeous-Alexander Free Throws Matter More Than Ever

Gilgeous-Alexander leads all playoff guards in free throws attempted per game, and Indiana’s defense relies on scrambling rotations. If refs are tight, SGA to score Over x points becomes one of the safest NBA Finals bets on the board.

Watch Live Rotation Adjustments

Indiana could go small and OKC might bench a big like Hartenstein. If that happens, Siakam scoring overs and Holmgren blocks + 3s become even stronger. Keep a close eye on minutes and lineup staggering in Game 1.

More Market Tips

— Look for Haliburton Double-Double props at plus money.

— Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points in a Thunder win is a good same-game parlay foundation.

— Alternate Overs on total points are viable—pace will be elite even when fatigue sets in.

— Live betting 2H overs could have value due to late-game tempo and foul strategy.

Last 10 NBA Finals Winners (2015-2024)

2024: Boston Celtics
2023: Denver Nuggets
2022: Golden State Warriors
2021: Milwaukee Bucks
2020: Los Angeles Lakers
2019: Toronto Raptors
2018: Golden State Warriors
2017: Golden State Warriors
2016: Cleveland Cavaliers
2015: Golden State Warriors

Last 10 NBA Finals MVPs:

2024: Jaylen Brown (Boston Celtics)
2023: Nikola Jokić (Denver Nuggets)
2022: Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors)
2021: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)
2020: LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers)
2019: Kawhi Leonard (Toronto Raptors)
2018: Kevin Durant (Golden State Warriors)
2017: Kevin Durant (Golden State Warriors)
2016: LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers)
2015: Andre Iguodala (Golden State Warriors)