The Unabated NBA team delivers player prop projections daily, made by some of the sharpest players in the space – Justin Phan, Stephen Byron Keech and John Raudebaugh.
Betting NBA props is something of a different animal compared to betting props in other sports.
Because the prop markets are so reactive to news, and because player performance is very much tied to which teammates will be on the floor, it requires bettors to be very active and aware of context around what teams are doing when it comes to resting players, and other factors.
For a deeper look at NBA betting strategy with the Unabated NBA team, check out some of their thoughts on the process.
NBA DFS Pick’em Projections: Wednesday, March 12th
Here, we’re taking a look at a few of those projections and how they stack up against available lines at Underdog Fantasy, which is widely available to bettors in the majority of jurisdictions.
We’re using the Unabated DFS Entry Builder to find an edge.
How to read this entry:
- Projection: The average points, rebounds or assists the team is projecting for this player, based on how many minutes they’re projected to play.
- Line: The current line at the DFS pick’em site.
- Play: Whether the recommended play is higher or lower than the current line.
- Edge: How much of an advantage you can expect to have over the pick’em sites, based on running 10,000 simulations of a player’s mean projections and generating a likely distribution of outcomes against the current line.
- Probability: How often we expect an outcome like higher points or lower assists, based on the projection simulated against the line. You can translate this to a projected price using an odds converter.
Best practices for DFS pick’em
Should you play a four-team entry over a five- or six-team? It depends. DFS pick’em products are always evolving. The best way to determine the optimal play is to use breakeven percentage as a way to guide your decisions.
Here’s a breakdown of how breakeven impacts your plays at Underdog and PrizePicks.
For standard plays at regular payouts, you’ll generally have the biggest edge when playing five- and six-man entries.
But as these products evolve, correlation is increasingly a factor in payouts. For example, a quarterback’s passing yards and star wide receiver’s yards would be correlated. That correlation may decrease your payout.
Always check the math to determine the breakeven percentage and payout of a play before you make any betting decisions.
Projection notes
— New York: Jalen Brunson and Ariel Hukporti remain out, while Pacome Dadiet is questionable. Brunson and Hukporti have been out for a few games now and Dadiet is not in the rotation, so nothing new here.
— Phoenix: Nick Richards, Grayson Allen and Monte Morris are all doubtful, while Cody Martin and Jalen Bridges are out. With Richards likely on the shelf, Mason Plumlee should start at center with Oso Ighodaro backing him up. Royce O’Neale could also see a few extra minutes in a small-ball lineup, but he should already benefit a bit from the lack of Grayson Allen. Grayson is one of the few steady options on the bench, so his absence should help guys like Royce, Tyus Jones and potentially Bol Bol if the Suns choose to extend his minutes at all.
— Oklahoma City: Alex Caruso is questionable, while Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Dillon Jones, Branden Carlson, Alex Ducas and Nikola Topic are all out. Caruso was downgraded to questionable this morning which doesn’t bode particularly well for his availability tonight. If he can’t go, we’d see Wallace, Dort, Wiggins and Isaiah Joe all have slightly more secure floors/ceilings for playing time. It’s not entirely clear what the roles are for Jaylin Williams and Kenrich Williams at the moment – we have them both projected for very light run at the back of the rotation tonight, but it’s possible just one of them gets in there, with Jaylin probably very slightly ahead.
— Denver: Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are probable, while Aaron Gordon is doubtful. Julian Strawther remains out. With Gordon doubtful, Russell Westbrook should start and Peyton Watson will have a much more secure bench role. We saw Watson take on about 24 minutes with Gordon out last game in what was a competitive game, while Zeke Nnaji only played about 12 minutes.
Results
Through March 10 games, Unabated NBA members who were betting using $100 units would be up $52,288 betting straight props against median sportsbook lines 30 minutes prior to tip-off on all points, rebounds or assists player prop projections that showed a 5% or more edge in the Unabated player prop simulator.
It’s a 7.7% return on investment across 5,531 bets.
Those include the dynamic conditional projections at Unabated NBA – which offer different scenarios for a team’s performance based on whether or not questionable players sit or start.
For example, on a night where Lebron James may be questionable to play for the Lakers at 4 p.m., the team will create two sets of projections: one where James plays, and one where he’s out, to show how his presence or absence will affect projections for the rest of the team.
These results include the appropriate sit/start scenarios if a player’s status is decided at least 30 minutes before the game starts. If James is confirmed to play by 9:30 p.m. for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off, results are for the “James plays” scenario. If he’s ruled out, the opposite scenario is recorded. If no decision is made before the 30-minute mark, Lakers projections wouldn’t be included in the results.
Dig into all the projections
Get more projection notes and up-to-the-minute breaking news alerts in the Unabated Discord, with dedicated channels just for Unabated NBA members.
Unabated NBA membership includes daily fantasy points projections for DraftKings and FanDuel. For those strictly interested in traditional DFS points, Unabated NBA DFS lets you access just those numbers.
