On paper, not much distinguishes the top three teams in the NL East, and the MLB win totals odds board reflect that parity. The Braves, Mets, and Phillies are separated by only 5.5 games, with the Marlins and Nationals much farther down the list.
Props.com continues its 2022 MLB betting preview with a division-by-division look at MLB regular-season win totals. We kick things off with the NL East, home of the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves.
2022 NL East Win Totals
| Team | Win Total |
| Atlanta Braves | 91.5 |
| New York Mets | 90 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 86.5 |
| Miami Marlins | 74.5 |
| Washington Nationals | 71.5 |
Odds via The SuperBook and updated as of 4 p.m. ET on March 25.
Atlanta Braves Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 88-73 (1st)
2022 win total projection: 91.5
Key additions: OF Alex Dickerson, RP Kenley Jansen, RP Collin McHugh, 1B Matt Olson, LF Eddie Rosario
Key subtractions: 1B Freddie Freeman, OF Joc Pederson, SP Drew Smyly, OF Jorge Soler
The Braves enter 2022 as the class of a top-heavy NL East. However, the division has gotten tougher following a slew of offseason free-agent moves by the Mets and Phillies — not to mention one huge free-agent loss in Atlanta.
Despite the departure of All-Star first baseman Freddy Freeman, the Braves remain a complete team. Not only did they acquire an All-Star in Oakland’s Matt Olson to replace Freeman, but they boast one of the NL’s best starting rotations. The bullpen also returns most of its arms and adds a new one: recently acquired longtime Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen
Atlanta’s strong offense is built around Olson, shortstop Ozzie Albies, and right fielder Ronald Acuña, who is slated to return from an ACL injury early in the season. Power-hitting outfielder Marcell Ozuna, who missed most of last season with off-field issues, also is back.
To many bettors researching the 2022 MLB win totals odds market, 91.5 wins for the defending World Series champs probably seems a tad low. However, those bettors would be wise to remember the 2021 regular season: Atlanta finished with fewer victories (88) than of the six division winners. Even the upstart Mariners — who finished second in the AL West at 90-72 — won more games than the Braves in 2021.
Atlanta will surely contend for the NL East title. However, its win total seems on the high side by a few games. Bottom line: Atlanta is essentially the same team it was last year (swapping out Olson for Freeman). But it’s a team that will play in a much more competitive division, as the Mets, Phillies, and Marlins have improved. Under 91.5 is the play here.
New York Mets Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 77-85 (3rd)
2022 win total projection: 90
Key additions: SP Chris Bassitt, OF Mark Canha, INF Eduardo Escobar, OF Starling Marte, SP Max Scherzer
Key subtractions: SS Javy Báez, OF Michael Conforto, RP Jeurys Familia, RP Brad Hand, SP Marcus Stroman, SP Noah Syndergaard, 2B Jonathan Villar
It’s been 16 years since the Metropolitans cleared 90 wins in a season, but there is some optimism at Citi Field this year. That’s largely because New York shored up its pitching staff with the offseason addition of perennial Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer. “Mad Max” will pair up with Mets ace Jacob deGrom to form what is arguably the best 1-2 starting pitching combination in all of Major League Baseball.
The question is: Will the Mets’ co-aces, along with newly acquired outfielder Starling Marte, translate to more than a dozen more wins in 2022 than 2021? The offense should be there, by way of first baseman Pete Alonso (who has emerged as a top power bat) and shortstop Francisco Lindor (who had a tough overall 2021 season, but had strong second-half numbers as he fully recovered from an oblique injury).
One thing is clear: Ownership is willing to spend money. And with the 2022 mantra in Queens being “Playoffs or Bust,” that free-spending certainly will continue if the team needs to add pieces along the way. Which is important when pondering a wager on a team to go Over a high win total.
Given all of the positives in New York, a lean to the Over seems appropriate here. However, most projections have the Mets landing right at 90 wins, so it appears the oddsmakers posted a rock-solid number.
Philadelphia Phillies Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 82-80 (2nd)
2022 win total projection: 86.5
Key additions: OF Nick Castellanos, RP Jeurys Familia, RP Brad Hand RP, RP Corey Knebel, OF Kyle Schwarber
Key subtractions: RP Archie Bradley, INF Freddy Galvis, RP Ian Kennedy, OF Andrew McCutchen, RP Hector Neris
It has been a decade since the Phillies punched a ticket to the playoffs — so Philly’s drought isn’t exactly “Mets-ish,” but it’s close. The good news for Phillies fans is oddsmakers see improvement coming, having posted a 2022 win total that’s 4.5 victories higher than last year’s 82-win output.
Philadelphia picked up a pair of power bats — outfielders Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber — who combined for 66 home runs in 2021. Those two add some pop to a lineup that already features 2021 MVP Bryce Harper, All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto, and first baseman Rhys Hoskins.
The Phillies are going to hit — and that’s a good thing, considering the pitching question marks hovering over both the starting staff and bullpen. Zach Wheeler, who finished second in NL Cy Young voting last year, is a bona fide ace. And Aaron Nola is a solid No. 2 starter (though he’s slightly regressing). After that, the not-so-scary likes of Kyle Gibson, Ranger Suarez, and Zach Eflin are the top candidates to round out the five-man rotation.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s bullpen has flat-out stunk in recent seasons, although hard-throwing Corey Knebel was a strong pick-up. The veteran right-hander will be in the closer mix. Still, like the starting rotation, depth is a concern.
Another problem? The Phillies’ defense has ranked at the bottom of the National League for several years. Philadelphia committed the third-most errors in the NL last season, and the front office did nothing to address the issue. In fact, the executive suite made it worse by opting for more power over an improved defense. Castellanos and Schwarber, both sub-par with the glove, join an already weak defense.
That defense likely will continue to haunt pitchers — and you, if you bet the Phillies to go Over their win total.
Miami Marlins Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 67-95 (4th)
2022 win total projection: 74.5
Key additions: OF Delino DeShields, OF Avisail Garcia, OF Jorge Soler, INF Joey Wendle
Key subtractions: C/OF Jorge Alfaro, OF Lewis Brinson, C Sandy Leon
The Marlins are developing a strong starting pitching rotation that, from top to bottom, could rival the arms that the Mets and Braves will throw at hitters. (More on that in a moment.)
The Marlins’ glaring problem has been their anemic offense, as they finished 28th out of 30 teams in hits per game last season. If the offense struggles to produce again, it will put enormous pressure on Miami’s talented (but young) pitchers, leaving them little margin for error. The end result would be more Ls than Ws at the top of the box score.
As for that staff: Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, and Pablo Lopez are all fireballers with electric stuff — the kind of 1-2-3 punch that isn’t fun to face in a three-game series. With that trio anchoring the rotation, the Marlins’ front office made an effort to improve the offense.
Outfielders Avisaíl García (Milwaukee) and World Series MVP Jorge Soler (Atlanta, by way of Kansas City) bring some much-needed power to the outfield. Granted, it’s not like García and Soler turn the Marlins into the 1927 Yankees. However, the pitching is certainly good enough that, with just a bit of added run support, Miami can greatly improve on last season’s 67-win effort.
Assuming health isn’t an issue, the starting rotation and bolstered offense should make the Marlins highly competitive in the NL East — and should make Over 74.5 wins well within reach.
Washington Nationals Win Total
2021 regular-season record: 65-97 (5th)
2022 win total projection: 71.5
Key additions: RP Steve Cishek, OF/DH Nelson Cruz, RP Sean Doolittle, RP Jace Fry, SP Anibal Sanchez
Key subtractions: C Alex Avila, RP Luis Avilan, OF Gerardo Parra, 1B Ryan Zimmerman
The Washington Nationals’ fire sale last season did exactly what it was supposed to do: Slash payroll and plunge the 2019 World Series champs into the NL East cellar.
Still, Washington is home to one of baseball’s best talents, 23-year-old superstar outfielder Juan Soto. However, Soto will have little support around him other than slugging 41-year-old designated hitter Nelson Cruz, whose addition was a bright spot in an otherwise uneventful offseason. Then again, Cruz might not be around long — if he starts launching balls out of Nationals Park this summer, he surely will be dealt for a handful of prospects.
The bullpen is serviceable, with a mix of young pitchers and journeymen. The starting rotation, though, is a mess. Former No. 1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg is the ace, but he may not be ready on Opening Day as he recovers from offseason surgery. Young righty Josiah Gray offers some hope for the future, but beyond that, the starting rotation lacks promise.
As such, the only way to play the 2022 Washington Nationals in the MLB win totals odds market is Under 71.5 wins.
