This column is all about MLB players to bet on this week who are on the verge of breaking out. We’ll help you get ahead of the oddsmakers, which can also lead to identifying some contrarian DFS picks!
No matter how talented a hitter, there are always spells during a long MLB season where many of their metrics indicate they’re doing everything right, but the results they’re producing are anything but.
These rough stretches are often accompanied by abnormally low BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) figures, and when we combine those scenarios with several other numbers that would appear to portend success at the plate, we can sometimes get ahead as prop bettors in identifying batters who may be due for a reversal of fortune.
In Simmering Sluggers, we’ll aim to highlight five MLB players to bet each week for the remainder of the season, examining a suite of key numbers over a reasonable sample size in an attempt to pinpoint such opportunities.
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We’re seeking players who’ve had a line-drive rate – which is normally highly correlated to elevated batting average over time – of at least 20.0%, along with a BABIP of .250 or less, a strikeout rate of 20.0% or less, and a hard-contact rate of over 30.0% at minimum during a sample that covers at least their last 30 plate appearances.
First, a quick look at how our five selections from last week performed:
- Kerry Carpenter, DET: .182/.308/.545 slash line, one double, one homer, three RBI, two walks, four runs (13 PAs)
- Dansby Swanson, CHC: .167/.286/.333 slash line, one homer, three RBI, three walks, three stolen bases, one run (21 PAs)
- William Contreras, MIL: .273/.385/.273 slash line, three walks, one HBP, five runs (26 PAs)
- Alex Bregman, BOS: .192/.222/.231 slash line, one double, four RBI, one walk, four runs (27 PAs)
- Ernie Clement, TOR: .364/.417/.636 slash line, three doubles, one RBI, one walk, one stolen base, three runs (13 PAs)
MLB Players To Bet: Unlucky Hitters Due To Bounce Back
Here’s this week’s five hard-luck hitters primed for potential turnarounds:
Kerry Carpenter, DET
- 28.6% line-drive rate/ .229 BABIP/ 19.6% strikeout rate/ 45.7% hard-contact rate (51 PAs)
- Schedule next 7 days: @NYY- 9/9, 9/10, 9/11; @MIA- 9/12, 9/13, 9/14
Carpenter is the first of two repeat players from last week’s article. As indicated above, he didn’t come close to turning his luck around despite continuing to put good wood on the ball overall, albeit over a very small sample of 13 PAs.
Carpenter’s extended run of bad luck is going to snap at some point, and particularly given his batted-ball metrics, there’s a very good chance that’s going to happen in the coming games.
Going back almost a month to Aug. 15, Carpenter has just two multi-hit efforts despite boasting a 24.0% line-drive rate and 44.0% hard-contact rate.
He’s kept his flyball rate (36.0%) modest as well in that span and has even laced five of his 12 hits for extra bases, but he’s way overdue to see a lot more of the pitches he puts in play result in base knocks.
Jonah Heim, TEX
- 20.0% line-drive rate/ .207 BABIP/ 5.4% strikeout rate/ 30.0% hard-contact rate (37 PAs)
- Schedule next 7 days: vs. MIL- 9/9, 9/10; @NYM- 9/12, 9/13, 9/14; @HOU- 9/15
As his strikeout rate above indicates, over the last two weeks, Heim has been making contact virtually any time he’s in the batter’s box and not drawing a walk.
However, the veteran backstop can’t seem to buy a hit relative to how often he put the ball in play, as he finished the sample cited above with a .226 average.
To be clear, Heim is having a rough year at the plate overall, as corroborated by the .215/.271/.335 slash he enters Tuesday night’s action with. He’s sporting a career-high 20.8% line-drive rate for the season, but he’s still saddled with a .248 BABIP thus far in 2025 as well.
While Heim’s season-long numbers don’t inspire much confidence, at least a slight improvement in his batting average should be close to inevitable if he keeps a sub-10.0% strikeout rate up for another week.
Cedric Mullins, NYM
- 29.0% line-drive rate/ .258 BABIP/ 14.9% strikeout rate / 31.3% hard-contact rate (47 PAs)
- Schedule next 7 days: @PHI- 9/9, 9/10, 9/11; vs. TEX – 9/12, 9/13, 9/14
Mullins has been squaring up on the ball all season, as 40 of his 88 hits have gone for extra bases. However, the veteran outfielder is still saddled with a .217/.300/.397 slash line across 121 games with the Orioles and Mets.
Moreover, since his New York debut Aug. 1, Mullins’ luck has been absolutely abysmal – the two-week sample cited above is just a microcosm – as he has a 25.8% line-drive rate coupled with a .174 average and .227 BABIP overall as a member of the Mets.
Does Mullins’ luck finally turn around this week? Naturally, it’s impossible to know for sure, but what is clear is that he’s ripping the ball even better over the last two weeks and continues to strike out at a very modest rate.
His power stroke also always gives him a chance to break out of a slump, considering he’s not overly reliant on singles to get on base.
More MLB Players To Bet: Veterans
Alex Bregman was off to a hot start this season before a brutal injury. But he’s back, and the underlying metrics suggest he’s been unlucky.
Alex Bregman, BOS
- 21.8% line-drive rate/ .200 BABIP/ 8.7% strikeout rate/ 30.9% hard-contact rate (64 PAs)
- Schedule next 7 days: @ATH- 9/9, 9/10; vs. NYY- 9/12, 9/13, 9/14
Bregman is our second repeat offender, or victim, this week, depending on one’s perspective. He continued to make contact at a near-elite rate over the last seven days while also generating a 26.3% line-drive rate and 43.5% hard-contact rate.
Yet, Bregman finished with just a .192 average for his troubles, but he’s too good a hitter to continue seeing the ball constantly find the opponent’s glove.
Bregman certainly couldn’t ask for better non-Coors hitter-friendly venues than he draws in the next seven days, beginning with his two games at Sutter Health Park on Tuesday and Wednesday.
He’ll then head back home to Fenway, where he might be due for a bit of a turnaround, also considering a .276 BABIP there this season.
Wilmer Flores, SFG
- 20.0% line-drive rate/ .136 BABIP/ 20.0% strikeout rate/ 32.0% hard-contact rate (35 PAs)
- Schedule next 7 days: vs. ARI- 9/9, 9/10; vs. LAD- 9/12, 9/13, 9/14; @ARI- 9/15
Despite sporting a relatively middling .244/.313/.386 slash line for the season, Flores has still made considerable improvement over a 2024 campaign where he managed just a .206/.277/.318 tally. The veteran has seen his strikeout rate bump up a bit this year, but it’s still sitting at a very respectable 18.5%.
Flores has managed a solid batted-ball profile in the last two weeks of play as noted above, and he has shown some respectable pop this season with 15 homers despite how frequently he plays in his pitcher-friendly home park.
A .136 BABIP and resulting .188 average over the last two weeks is considered an extreme outlier to say the least, and especially when paired with a solid 20.0% line-drive rate. Flores rounds out my MLB players to bet this week.
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