Of all the markets for touchdown scorers, it’s possible the most underrated one is last to score. Obviously, there’s a lot of guesswork that goes into this prop. But there’s also strategy we’ll break down in this best last touchdown scorer bets article.
Basically, ask yourself how you expect the game to go. Create a scenario. What player, then, benefits most from that scenario?
Answer that question, and you might have yourself a bet.
With that in mind, here are some of our favorite last touchdown scorer props we have our eye on for this week.
Last Touchdown Scorer Bets: Week 16 Saturday Slate
Our staff runs through their best last touchdown scorer bets.
Editor’s Note: Be sure to check out all of our Week 16 content linked below.
Derrick Henry Last-TD Scorer (+435)
The Ravens are 6.0-point favorites at home against the Steelers on Saturday, which is a good starting point for a possible positive game script at the end of the game. When picking a player likely to score the game’s final touchdown, my initial inclination is to pick a running back on the favored team or a pass-catching weapon on the underdog. It is more nuanced when the spread is closer or if the favored team’s running backs are lousy.
However, the Ravens have a decent-sized spread, and Derrick Henry is a stud. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 61 running backs with at least 50 rush attempts this season, King Henry is fourth in rush attempts (254), second in rushing yards per game (105.3), second in yards per carry (5.80), fifth in explosive run percentage (7.1%), tied for first in rushing touchdowns (13), and tied for percentage of a team’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line (88.9%). The bulldozing running back has the combo of size and speed to hit home runs or run over a defender’s face from the goal line.
The Ravens recognize the talent they have in their backfield, and they lean on the run. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Baltimore has had a 51% situation-neutral rush rate since Week 11. Moreover, when leading by at least six points and excluding the last two minutes of the first half, the Ravens have rushed on 65% of 263 plays within those parameters. Henry will be fed the ball if the Ravens are leading late, and the Steelers will have difficulty keeping him out of the end zone. Pittsburgh has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns to running backs in 14 games this season. Henry can put an exclamation point on Saturday’s contest with the game’s final touchdown.
Where to play: Derrick Henry Last-TD Scorer | Fliff