January 20th Update
Model-Based Projections
Our analytics model projects Jayson Tatum to finish Monday’s game with approximately 29 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists.
Matchup Overview & Key Injuries
The Celtics enter this contest at 29-13 overall, good for the No. 2 spot in the Eastern Conference, despite a modest 6-4 record over their last 10 games. On the opposite bench, the Warriors have clawed back to 21-20 following a tough 7-17 stretch, and they’ve now strung together two straight wins to get above .500. With Boston listed as a 10.5-point road favorite, the matchup looks uphill for the Warriors—especially given their spot at No. 11 in the Western Conference. This meeting is also a rematch of the 2022 NBA Finals, with tipoff set for 5:00 p.m. EST at the Chase Center on Monday.
Player Performance This Season
Tatum has remained the Celtics’ leading scorer with an average of 27.7 points per game, although his recent three-point percentage has dipped to 32.5% since Christmas. Even so, he’s still attempting 19.3 shots per contest over that span, demonstrating his central role in Boston’s offense. Notably, Tatum has already poured in 32 points on 10-of-20 shooting against Golden State this season and has surpassed 26.5 points in three of his last four outings versus the Warriors, making him a prime candidate to post another big performance in Monday’s showdown.
January 19th – Game Recap & Info
Last 2 Games:
Boston Celtics 121, Orlando Magic 94
Atlanta Hawks 119, Boston Celtics 115
Final Score & Game Recap
One night after snapping a shooting slump with a 121–94 rout of the Orlando Magic, the Boston Celtics dropped a 119–115 overtime decision to the Atlanta Hawks. Boston soared behind 53% shooting and Jayson Tatum’s 30 points against Orlando but struggled to fend off a late Atlanta surge in OT. Despite forcing overtime, the Celtics couldn’t capitalize on key possessions down the stretch, taking the defeat.
Player Performance Analysis
In back-to-back starts, Tatum combined for 53 points, including 30 versus the Magic and 23 against the Hawks. Though he shot just 7/21 on Saturday, Tatum contributed 8 rebounds, 7 assists, and 3 steals, underscoring his importance as Boston looks to regroup.
January 17th Update
Matchup Overview & Key Injuries
The Boston Celtics (28–12) return to TD Garden on Friday night looking to rebound from a surprising 110–97 road loss to the Toronto Raptors. Across the court, the Orlando Magic (23–19) aim to steady themselves after a disappointing 122–93 defeat at Milwaukee. Both teams have ambitious playoff hopes in a crowded Eastern Conference, making this showdown a key benchmark game. Orlando’s injury report is crowded, with Franz Wagner, Moritz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and Gary Harris all expected to remain sidelined, putting extra pressure on rookie sensation Paolo Banchero. The Celtics are at full health, seeking to reestablish their home-court dominance and keep pace in the East playoff race.
Player to Pop
Jayson Tatum has been at the core of everything Boston does, averaging 27.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 5.4 assists in over 36 minutes per game. While he struggled to find his rhythm against Toronto, finishing with 16 points on 5-of-15 shooting, Tatum still contributed 10 rebounds and seven assists. That kind of all-around impact embodies why he remains the Celtics’ linchpin, and he’s more than capable of erupting for 30-plus on any given night (witness his 38-point outburst against New Orleans just days ago). With the Magic trotting out a depleted lineup, there’s a clear opening for Tatum to return to his high-scoring ways and reinforce Boston’s offensive edge.
Model-Based Projections
According to our data forecasts, Tatum is primed to post 28 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 made three-pointers against Orlando. The Magic have been a top-tier defensive group for most of the season, but their injury woes strain rotations, likely leaving them vulnerable to Tatum’s versatile scoring repertoire and rebounding instincts.
Prop Pick via Recent Game Performance
Back Tatum to surpass his points prop, as he’ll be eager to bounce back from a subdued shooting performance and reignite the Celtics’ offense.
January 16th Update: Tatum’s Night in Toronto
Game Result & Summary
Despite entering the contest as heavy favorites, the Boston Celtics fell to the Toronto Raptors, 110–97, at Scotiabank Arena. Boston started strong, building an early lead behind a handful of perimeter buckets, but struggled to maintain offensive rhythm against Toronto’s stifling defense. The Raptors capitalized on superior shooting (50.6% vs. Boston’s 39.6%) and seized control in the second half, improving their record while snapping a 10-game losing streak against Boston.
Tatum Performance Analysis
Jayson Tatum delivered a mixed outing. While he finished with 16 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists, his shooting touch never fully materialized (5-of-15 from the floor, 3-of-9 from deep). He did help on the boards and in playmaking duties, but Toronto’s defensive schemes forced Tatum and his teammates into tough looks, limiting Boston’s usual high-efficiency offense. Role players like Payton Pritchard (20 points) provided a spark off the bench, yet it wasn’t enough to counterbalance the Raptors’ overall momentum.
Prediction Review
Our model had anticipated Tatum to hover near 29 points, eight rebounds, and five assists. Although he outperformed our rebounding projection, the overall offensive numbers fell short of expectations as Toronto disrupted his typical scoring flow.
January 15th Update
If you’re looking for a midweek NBA matchup ripe with storylines, look no further than Wednesday’s showdown in Toronto. The 28–11 Boston Celtics will visit the 9–31 Raptors at Scotiabank Arena, with Boston hoping to build momentum after a nail-biter of a victory and Toronto aiming for just its second two-game win streak since mid-December.
Matchup Overview & Key Injuries
The Celtics enter as clear favorites—sitting second in the Eastern Conference and favored by 14 points—while the Raptors, mired at 13th in the East, have battled injuries and inconsistent play. Immanuel Quickley (groin) is out for Toronto, further limiting a Raptors roster already missing key contributors. Meanwhile, the Celtics report a clean bill of health, continuing a rare stretch with their main rotation fully available.
Current Trends & Team Storylines
Boston survived a 120-119 thriller over the Pelicans on Sunday, keyed by late-game heroics from Jayson Tatum. Head coach Joe Mazzulla wasn’t thrilled with the team’s intensity, but the Celtics’ 28 wins and combination of strong offense (fifth in the NBA at 118.0 PPG) and stingy defense (sixth at 108.7 PAPG) give them reason for optimism. Toronto, on the other hand, comes off a spirited 104-101 upset of Golden State, fueled by Scottie Barnes’s 23 points. Still, the Raptors rank near the bottom in numerous categories and will have to be near-perfect to hang with one of the league’s best.
Focused Player Profile: Jayson Tatum
At the heart of Boston’s success stands Tatum, who’s quietly putting up MVP-caliber numbers: 28.1 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. His versatile scoring package—evident in his 46.2% field-goal clip—keeps defenses guessing, while his improved playmaking gives Boston a constant edge in transition and half-court sets. Tatum dropped 38 points and 11 boards in his last outing, marking the 18th time this season he’s cracked the 30-point plateau.
Recent Game Performance
Over his last five contests, Tatum has averaged nearly 26 points, with his best effort that 38-point eruption against the Pelicans. Even when his shot dips, he remains impactful by hitting the boards (averaging over 9 rebounds) and creating open looks for teammates.
Model-Based Projections & Betting Angle
Our data-driven model pegs Tatum’s mean projection around 29 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists. If you’re looking at prop bets, an Over on his points (anything around 27.5) feels like a strong play given Toronto’s leaky defense. Meanwhile, Tatum’s rebound total (often set around 8.5) also leans Over.
