Props analyst Griffin Alvey runs through some key factors and winning strategies to consider on the most popular DFS pick’em sites. Follow these tips and tricks to learn how to win on PrizePicks NFL each week this football season.
How To Win On PrizePicks NFL: Tips & Winning Strategies
Want to profit more consistently on PrizePicks and other DFS pick’em sites? Check out a few tips and tricks to consider as you finalize your slips.
Understand You Won’t Win All The Time
You won’t win every play. That is an unfortunate fact. Losing is part of the process, but what separates successful players from the rest is solid bankroll management.
A good rule of thumb is to put no more than 1% of your bankroll on any single play. This helps ensure that you stay in the game longer, giving yourself more opportunities to capitalize on smart plays and ultimately grow your bankroll over time.
Know That Data Is Your Friend
There is no substitute for data, especially when it comes to knowing which statistics are important and actionable for successfully picking player props, and which are mainly just noise.
Across the industry, there are plenty of helpful resources that have all the basic and advanced stats you could ever need. Do your homework and get up to speed with current data and statistical trends this season.
Leverage Game Flow For Smarter Picks
When making your PrizePicks selections, always consider the likely game flow.
If a team is favored, we will often see shifts towards a run-heavy strategy to control the clock. On the flip side, underdogs usually rely more on their passing game to play catch-up, increasing the opportunities for receivers and running backs involved in the passing attack.
Aligning your picks with these game scripts can give you an edge and increase your chances of success. This can help you identify value plays and make smarter decisions.
Players like Breece Hall, who have multiple ways to accumulate points through both the ground and air, offer additional value in fantasy score formats. Betting on volume, especially for backs expected to be heavily involved, can give you an edge in making better picks.
Use Discrepancies As An Advantage
When playing on PrizePicks, always keep an eye out for line discrepancies between sportsbooks and PrizePicks NFL projections.
A 2-yard difference between PrizePicks and some of the top sportsbooks in the industry gives you an edge.
Since PrizePicks doesn’t adjust payouts based on odds, identifying these small differences can be key to increasing your long-term profitability.
Pay Attention To Market Movement
Paying attention to market movements and sharp betting activity can give you a leg up when picking your PrizePicks plays.
If you know the public perception surrounding a player prop situation, it can help you understand why certain picks are gaining steam, and then you can factor that information into your own research process.
Focus On Player Roles & Matchups
When making your PrizePicks selections, always consider each player’s role in their team’s offensive scheme and how that matches up against the opposing defense.
Players with consistent targets or touches, especially in favorable matchups, offer more reliable value.
Exploit Defensive Weaknesses
When looking for PrizePicks plays, always focus on how opposing defenses have performed against specific positions. Weaknesses like Baltimore’s struggles against wide receivers and Arizona’s inability to contain the pass can offer valuable insights into which players are likely to exceed their projected yardage or reception projections.
Combine that with game scripts where teams are expected to pass more often, and you have a recipe for success.