The Heat are all set to face off against the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday, Mar 22. Today’s game is slated to tip off at 8:00 ET and will be shown on NBA. Miami enters this contest as 3-point favorites, and the over/under total stands at 209.5. Can the Pelicans come out on top as the favorite? Our Heat vs. Pelicans predictions can be found below.
Heat vs. Pelicans Odds
- Spread: Heat -3
- Total 209.5
Odds via FanDuel SportsBook. New To FanDuel? Check out our FanDuel Sportsbook Review to find out how to redeem a $1,000 risk-free bet!
Game Info
- Date: Friday, Mar 22
- Time: 8:00 ET
- Location: Kaseya Center, Miami FL
- TV: NBA
Pelicans Betting Trends
- Over their last five games, the Pelicans have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 3-2 vs. the spread.
- In their last three road games, New Orleans has averaged 108 points per game while allowing 105. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
- The last ten games that New Orleans was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 4-6 straight up.
Heat Betting Trends
- In their last five games, the Heat have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 1-4 vs. the spread.
- In their last ten games at home, the Heat have a straight up record of 6-4 while going 7-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 104 points per game in these contests.
- Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Heat have a straight up record of 9-1. Their record vs the spread in these games was 5-4-1.
Is an Upset Waiting to Happen on the Road?
The Pelicans are 13-12 as underdogs this season and are currently 3-point underdogs against the Heat. In games where they are the underdog, New Orleans has gone 15-10 against the spread, with an average scoring differential of -0.6 points per game.
In their last game against the Magic, the Pelicans were favored by 2.5 points but lost by a score of 121-106. The O/U line for that game was 207.5, and the teams combined for 227 points.
This season, the Pelicans have an O/U record of 30-39 and have seen an average of 226.7 points scored in their games. Today’s O/U line is set at 209.5, and 68 of their games have had higher over/under lines.
New Orleans is currently 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 42-27. In non-conference games, they are 16-9 compared to 26-18 against the West. On the road, the Pelicans are 22-14.
When it comes to scoring, the Pelicans are 13th in the league at 115.8 points per game. On the road, they are averaging 115.1 points per contest. So far, they have outscored the NBA scoring average in 53.6% of their games.
In terms of shooting, New Orleans is 8th in field goal percentage at 48%. When it comes to two-point shooting, they are 12th in the league at 55%. However, they are just 20th in three-pointers made per game and 25th in three-point attempts.
Overall, the Pelicans are 17th in pace at 97.6 possessions per game. In terms of assists, they are 11th in the league at 27.2 per contest. When it comes to offensive rebounds, they are 14th in the NBA.
Coming into the game, the Pelicans defense has held opposing team’s to fewer points than the league average in 34.8% of their games. Currently, they are 8th in the NBA at 110.9 points per game allowed. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Pelicans squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 55.1% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 34.6% from downtown.
Can the Heat Lock in a Home Win?
Today, the Heat are favored by 3 points against the Pelicans. This season, Miami has gone 27-11 as the favorite and has won their last two games as the favorite. As the favorite, they have gone 16-19 against the spread with an average scoring margin of +2.8 points per game.
In terms of their O/U record for the season, the Heat are 25-44. In 65 of their games, the over/under line has been higher than today’s line of 209.5. On average, their games have finished with 218.9 points.
Miami’s last game was a 107-104 win over the Cavaliers. They were 3-point underdogs going into the game. The O/U line for that game was 207.5, and the Heat covered the spread.
The Heat are currently 7th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 38-31. In the East, they are 26-18 compared to 12-13 against the West. At home, Miami is 17-15 and 12-20 against the spread.
When playing at home, the Heat are averaging 112.7 points per game. On the season, they are 27th in the league in scoring at 109.7 points per game. Miami is 29th in pace at 95.8 possessions per game.
In terms of three-point shooting, the Heat are 10th in the league at 37%. They are averaging 12.2 made threes per game, which is 20th in the NBA. Miami is 23rd in field goal percentage at 46%.
Coming into the game, the Heat have outscored the NBA scoring average in just 36.2% of their games. In terms of assists, Miami is 22nd in the league at 25.6 per game. They are also 26th in offensive rebounds.
Not only do the Heat’s overall defensive numbers look good, as they are 4th in the league in points allowed. Miami has also been playing well on defense of late, ranking 4th in the league over their last three games at 101 PPG allowed. The Miami defense has allowed opponents to shoot 36.2% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 47.1% of their field goal attempts vs. Miami.
Heat vs. Pelicans Player Prop
A player prop we are looking at is Zion Williamson and his points prop of 25.5. Currently, the over for this prop is sitting at a payout of -123 while the under is at -110. Our model predicts that Zion Williamson will finish with 24 points, 6 rebounds, and 5. As for his points prop, we favor the under at 25.5.
- The Prop: Zion Williamson Under 25.5 Points (-110)
Heat vs. Pelicans Predictions
Coming in as the underdogs at +3, we have the Pelicans as the way to go on the point spread. Not only do we have them covering, but our projections show they have a good one of winning this one straight-up, if you’re looking for a higher payout on the moneyline.
As for the over/under, the line is currently at 209.5, and our model projects the Pelicans and Heat to reach a combined total of 227 points. Our bet is on taking the over.
The Pick: Pelicans +3 | at Fanduel Sportsbook