We asked our Props analyst, Justin Bales, to come up with his best NFL ladder bets for Week 9.
If you’re not familiar with this kind of play, a ladder bet is essentially betting on a prop at multiple lines with the odds getting progressively larger the further up the ladder you go.
Don’t Look Down – NFL Week 9 Ladder Bets
We’ve done the research for you here and below we’ll dive into all of the rationale for our best NFL ladder bets for Week 9.
MORE PROPS: NFL | NBA | MLB | NHL | PGA | CFB
Jameis Winston Passing Yards Ladder
We cashed the entire ladder for Winston last week, and I’m going back to the well here. In his first start in 2024, he threw for 334 yards with 3 touchdowns on 41 pass attempts. He averaged a healthy 8.1 yards per attempt.
Winston gets an interesting matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers this week. They’re only allowing 193.4 passing yards per game in 2024. The Chargers have also held their opponents to only 6.7 yards per attempt this season.
There’s one particular key to this bet, though. Pressure. Los Angeles generates the second-lowest amount of pressure in the NFL on opposing quarterbacks. They enter this game with a ridiculously low 14.8% pressure rate.
Winston has been outstanding when kept clean this season. He’s averaging 8.4 yards per attempt on 44 clean attempts in 2024. He’s also averaging 8.7 yards per attempt in his last two seasons with 100+ clean attempts.
The Cleveland Browns are a team that will let Winston throw the ball 40+ times in a game, and they are small underdogs in this game. The baseline matchup is keeping his yardage total low, but this could be a better matchup than on paper.
What to bet: Jameis Winston 250+ passing yards through 300+ passing yards
Brian Robinson Rushing Yards Ladder
UPDATE: Robinson has been ruled OUT for Week 9.
Robinson’s seen mixed results throughout the 2024 season. He boasts 461 yards with 6 touchdowns on 102 carries through 7 games. He owns 100+ yards in two of those games, including a 133-yard performance against the New York Giants earlier this season.
Robinson gets a matchup against New York once again this week. They’ve been awful defending the run, allowing the seventh-most rushing yards (112.1) per game to the position. The Giants are also allowing running backs to average 5.4 yards per carry this season.
Robinson isn’t necessarily a workhorse running back with Austin Ekeler also finding touches, but they are willing to give him ~20 carries in the right situation. That could be the case this week, as the Washington Commanders continue to try to keep Jayden Daniels healthy.
Robinson’s dominated New York throughout his career. He’s recorded 10+ carries in four of his five games against them, averaging 97.8 rushing yards per game against them. This is another spot where he can find plenty of success on the ground.
What to bet: Brian Robinson 60+ rushing yards through 120+ rushing yards
AJ Brown Receiving Yards Ladder
Brown’s only played in four games because of injury this season, but he’s found plenty of success. He recorded 21 receptions for 408 yards and 3 touchdowns on 29 targets. He also posted 84+ receiving yards in each of those four games.
Brown gets an elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They’re giving up the fourth-most receiving yards (177.1) per game to opposing receivers. They’re also giving up a healthy 12.8 yards per reception to the position.
Here’s how opposing wide receivers have performed against Jacksonville this season:
- Tyreek Hill (130) & Jaylen Waddle (109)
- Jerry Jeudy (73)
- Khalil Shakir (72)
- Nico Collins (151) & Stefon Diggs (69)
- Alec Pierce (134) & Josh Down (69)
- Romeo Doubs (72)
As you can see, elite wide receivers have dominated Jacksonville this season. Other wide receivers have also found varying levels of success. Granted, not everyone dominates them, but they don’t have anyone who has the talent to stick with Brown.
The biggest concern is a blowout, as the Philadelphia Eagles are 7.5-point favorites in this game. I think Jacksonville might have the offensive firepower to keep this game close for the majority of it, giving Brown a bit more upside than Vegas projects.
What to bet: AJ Brown 80+ receiving yards through 120+ receiving yards
