It’s a perfect game to hunt for some Cowboys vs Commanders props. With the Cowboys’ superstar returning, maybe it’s time to consider some CeeDee Lamb player props as well!
Unfortunately for Washington, they’ll be without their top pass-catcher, Terry McLaurin.
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Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Props – October 19
Will CeeDee Lamb be a full go? Who will benefit from the absence of Terry McLaurin? Deebo Samuel’s status is also uncertain for Sunday.
Our NFL props expert Matt LaMarca has a pair of Cowboys vs Commanders props circled for this late-window thriller.
Luke McCaffrey Player Props
McCaffrey is having a bit of a breakout in his second professional season. The 2024 third-round pick – and Christian’s younger brother – has already caught three touchdowns through his first six games. He’s averaging a whopping 22.4 yards per reception, so he’s been an excellent big-play threat for the Commanders.
However, McCaffrey is still a part-time player. Even with Terry McLaurin out of the lineup recently, McCaffrey has posted a route participation of 44% or fewer in three straight weeks.
That includes just a 37% mark in his last outing. McCaffrey is also failing to earn targets at a solid clip, posting just a 6% target share for the year. He’s been at 9% or lower in two straight games with Jayden Daniels back at quarterback, including a 4% mark last week.
McCaffrey has made up for it by generating big plays, but overall, he has just 10 targets through six weeks. He’s not going to average 20+ yards per catch all season, so this feels like a perfect sell-high opportunity.
Of course, the matchup vs. the Cowboys is the potential x-factor. They have been atrocious defensively this season, ranking dead last in EPA per play and pass defense EPA.
It’s possible that McCaffrey can get loose for a big one against this weak secondary, but I’m willing to take my chances.
Where to play: Luke McCaffrey Receiving Yards – Lower Than 21.5 | Underdog
CeeDee Lamb Player Props
On the other side, the Cowboys are getting back one of the best receivers in football in Week 7. Lamb has essentially missed the past four games with a high ankle sprain, but he is slated to return vs. the Commanders. That’s excellent news for the Cowboys’ offense.
Before going down with his injury, Lamb was the clear focal point of the team’s passing attack. He racked up at least 11 targets and 111 receiving yards in each of his first two games, and he posted a fantastic 29% target share and 42% air yards share over that time frame.
With Lamb out the past few weeks, George Pickens and Jake Ferguson have taken over as focal points of the passing attack. It’s possible that both players will maintain elevated roles even with Lamb back in the fold, but Lamb is going to be the team’s clear-cut No. 1 option.
Washington has allowed the 10th-most passing yards per game to their opponents this season, and the Cowboys have thrown the ball at the eighth-highest frequency. Dak Prescott leads the league with 164 completions, so the offense should continue to move the ball consistently through the air.
The only real concern is that Lamb won’t be 100% healthy in his first game back. However, the reports out of practice have been positive, and it seems as though Lamb could’ve potentially returned last week.
Instead, the Cowboys chose to exercise some caution, which bodes well for Lamb’s overall outlook. Ultimately, I’m looking to buy low on an extremely talented player.
Where to play: CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards – Higher Than 73.5 | Underdog
