Happy New Year’s Eve, crew! Pop the champagne, grab some snacks, and settle in because the College Football Playoff has served us a primetime classic to ring in 2026. The defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) begin their title defense in the Cotton Bowl quarterfinals against the upset-minded Miami Hurricanes (11-2).
We’ve got a battle of transfer quarterbacks who have reshaped their programs, elite playmakers on the perimeter, and two defenses that just refuse to break. Let’s dive into the OSU vs Miami matchups, injury news, and where the smart money is landing tonight.
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Cotton Bowl Predictions: Miami vs OSU Preview
When Will Howard left, the keys were handed to sophomore sensation Julian Sayin. And man, has he delivered. Sayin has thrown for 3,323 yards and 31 touchdowns this season, completing a ridiculous 78.4% of his passes. He isn’t just managing the game; he’s dominating it.
His top target, Jeremiah Smith, is simply a cheat code. The sophomore wideout has 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns, proving that his freshman hype was just the appetizer. Tonight, he faces a Miami secondary that is missing a crucial piece.
Miami’s offense looked different this year with Georgia transfer Carson Beck under center. Beck has been steady, throwing for 3,175 yards and 26 touchdowns, but the real story has been the emergence of Mark Fletcher Jr. (857 rushing yards, 10 TDs). Fletcher was a beast in the first round against Texas A&M, churning out 172 yards on the ground.
But this Ohio State defense is a different animal. They allow just 8.2 points per game (1st in the nation). Beck will need to be perfect, especially with Ohio State’s pass rush likely teeing off on a Miami line that has been inconsistent.
Cotton Bowl Injury Report (Dec 31, 2025)
Miami Hurricanes
- Damari Brown (DB): OUT – This is massive. Brown is one of their best cover corners. Without him, expect Sayin to target his replacement early and often, especially with Jeremiah Smith on the field.
- Malik Bryant (LB): OUT – Depth loss for the pass rush rotation.
- Daylyn Upshaw (WR): OUT – Reserve receiver.
Ohio State Buckeyes
- Tegra Tshabola (OL): DOUBTFUL – Starting right guard. If he can’t go, that interior protection against Miami’s stout defensive front becomes the Buckeyes’ biggest weakness.
- Malik Hartford (S): OUT – Blow to the secondary depth.
- Quincy Porter (WR): OUT – Reserve receiver.
College Football Playoff Picks: Miami vs OSU Bets
Before we dive into the Cotton Bowl bets, check out the popular College Football props on Underdog!
Cotton Bowl Spread Pick: Ohio State -9.5
I know the hook at 9.5 is scary, but I can’t bet against this Ohio State defense. They are allowing single digits per game. Miami struggled to score against Texas A&M (winning 10-3), and Ohio State is significantly better on that side of the ball. Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith should feast on a depleted Miami secondary missing Damari Brown.
Player Prop: Jeremiah Smith HIGHER THAN 81.5 Receiving Yards
With Damari Brown out, who guards him? Smith has eclipsed 100 yards in four of his last five games. In a dome, on a fast track, Sayin is going to look for him on every crucial down.
Player Prop: Mark Fletcher Jr. Lower Than 55.5 Rushing Yards
He was heroic against A&M, but Ohio State’s front seven is the best in the country. They won’t let Miami line up and run it down their throats. Beck will have to win this with his arm, which limits Fletcher’s volume.
