College Football Week 8 Odds: Bettors Like Road ‘Dog Oklahoma State

UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The unranked Cyclones opened as 6.5-point home favorites at Caesars, then spent pretty much all week at -7. That said, ticket count is 3/1 and money 2/1 on the eighth-ranked Cowboys as touchdown underdogs. The total was stable at 47 all week before nudging to 47.5 in the past hour.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: DraftKings opened Iowa State as a 5.5-point favorite and in short order Sunday got to -7, where the line has stuck all week. But Oklahoma State is getting the bulk of tickets and money, at 89% and 70%, respectively. The total bounced between 46.5 and 47 a couple of times and is currently at the latter number. The Over is landing 92% of early bets but just 69% of early cash.

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET MONDAY: The Cowboys posted a big comeback win at Texas in Week 7, scoring the final 19 points in a 32-24 victory as 3.5-point road ‘dogs. Despite that impressive performance, the Pokes (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) are catching nearly a full touchdown against the unranked Cyclones. Iowa State (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) topped Kansas State 33-20 as a 6.5-point road favorite last weekend.

The Cyclones opened and remain -6.5 at home, but at a price of -121, while Oklahoma State is +6.5 (even). The Cowboys are taking 72% of early tickets and 61% of early cash on the spread at TwinSpires.

“The public is all over the undefeated Cowboys,” Lucas said. “A top-10 team as an almost-TD underdog is going to attract a lot of support. We’re likely going to need Iowa State in this spot.”

It’s certainly understandable why bettors would be backing OSU in this spot: Not only have the Cowboys cashed in four straight games, but teams ranked in this week’s top 10 are 38-18-1 ATS (66.7%) in FBS vs. FBS matchups.

The total dipped to 46.5, with the Under drawing 57% of tickets/64% of cash early on.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The Fighting Irish opened -6 at DraftKings, peaked a couple of times at -7 and is now -7 (-105). It’s all Notre Dame on the spread, with ticket count and money beyond 5/1 on the Irish. The total has been pinned to 58 almost all week, save for 17 hours at 57.5 from Tuesday morning until early Wednesday. It’s two-way action, with 57% of bets on the Over and 57% of cash on the Under.

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET MONDAY: Notre Dame (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) is coming off a much-needed bye week following its Oct. 2 home loss to Cincinnati and a narrow Oct. 9 win at Virginia Tech. Southern Cal (3-3 SU and ATS) also had a bye after getting smacked by Utah 42-26 as 2.5-point home chalk.

Early ticket count and money are running 2/1 on the Fighting Irish, although the line is stable at TwinSpires. The total is up to 59, with the Over netting 54% of tickets/76% of money.

“Sharp money on Over 58,” Lucas said.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Ohio State is now a full three-touchdown chalk at DraftKings, up to -21 from a -18.5 opener. The Buckeyes are getting a relatively modest 70% of early bets, but that’s translating to 94% of early dollars. The total fell from 60.5 to 59.5, although ticket count is beyond 5/1 and money about 3/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET MONDAY: We now enter the anticipated butt-kicking section of this report. Ohio State (5-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) had a bye last week, following four consecutive wins and three straight cashes. In Week 6, the Buckeyes went to Maryland as 22-point favorites and steamrolled to a 66-17 victory.

Indiana (2-4 SU) is one of the worst spread-covering outfits in the nation at 1-5 ATS. In fact, the Hoosiers are one of seven teams (out of 130) that have yet to cash in an FBS-specific game. That said, they tested unbeaten Michigan State in a low-scoring Week 7 affair, losing 20-15 as 3.5-point home ‘dogs.

The Buckeyes are netting 70% of early tickets and 79% of early cash on the spread at TwinSpires.

“A mix of public and sharp action so far on Ohio State,” Lucas said. “Ohio State is always going to attract a lot of money, and this week is no different. Indiana will definitely be one of our top needs Saturday.”

The total is steady at 60, with 66% of tickets/61% of dollars on the Over.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Alabama opened as a 27.5-point favorite at DraftKings on Sunday afternoon and by Monday afternoon dipped to -25. The line remains ‘Bama -25, but betting splits weren’t readily available. The total fell from 68.5 to 66.5, then rebounded to 67.5 by Tuesday afternoon, with 64% of bets/53% of dollars on the Over.

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET MONDAY: It didn’t take Alabama long to rebound from its outright loss at Texas A&M as 18.5-point chalk. In Week 7, the Crimson Tide (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) boat-raced Mississippi State 49-9 as 17.5-point road faves. Tennessee (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) lost to Mississippi 31-26 getting 1.5 points at home, and the expectation is that the Vols will lose by a helluva lot more than that this week.

That said, TwinSpires’ line is down 2 points to ‘Bama -25.5, even though 70% of bets/62% of cash are on the Crimson Tide.

“Sharp money on Tennessee +27.5 and +27. The public, as they always do, is siding with Alabama early and often,” Lucas said.

The total is steady at 67.5, with tickets just shy of 2/1 and money 3/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: DraftKings pegged Cincinnati a 25.5-point favorite at Sunday’s outset and has stuck at -28 since Tuesday evening. The Bearcats are attracting 87% of spread bets and 89% of spread cash. The total plunged from 53.5 to 48 by lunch hour Tuesday, then rebounded to 49 by Tuesday night. Splits are rather wild, at 95% of tickets on the Over and 65% of cash on the Under.

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET MONDAY: Cincinnati has been perfect on the field and near-perfect for bettors, standing 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS, with the lone non-cover coming against FCS-entrant Murray State. But over the next month, the Bearcats face a strength-of-schedule issue that many will argue should keep them out of the College Football Playoff. To combat that, Cincy must continue to lay it on thick, and oddsmakers anticipate just that.

In Week 7, the Bearcats closed as 21.5-point home favorites against Central Florida and rolled to a 56-21 victory. Navy (1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS) might not offer much resistance, but the Midshipmen covered three in a row before a 35-17 loss at Memphis as 11-point underdogs.

Point-spread ticket count is running nearly 5/1 and money 4/1 on the Bearcats, who are up to -27.5 at TwinSpires.

“It’s been all Cincy money so far. The Bearcats have covered four straight and show no signs of slowing down. This line will likely continue to creep up,” Lucas said.

The total quickly dipped 2 points to 49.5, with the Under is taking 59% of bets/68% of money.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Michigan opened -21 at DraftKings and by Monday evening was out to -23.5, where the number remains. But it’s not overwhelming Wolverines action, at 60% of spread tickets/71% of spread money. The total is up to 51 from a 49 opener, with 64% of tickets/70% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET MONDAY: Michigan has been solid so far on the field and against the oddsmakers, at 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. The Wolverines had a bye in Week 7, after sneaking out of Nebraska with a 32-29 win laying 2.5 points in Week 6. Northwestern (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) enters off a 21-7 win as a 2.5-point home pup vs. Rutgers.

Michigan is taking 58% of early bets/64% of early cash at TwinSpires, but the number is stable at -21.5. The total inched to 50.5, with 61% of bets/69% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: On Tuesday night, Oklahoma moved from -38 to -39 at DraftKings, and the line hasn’t shifted since. Point-spread ticket count is running 3/1 and money 6/1 on the Sooners. The total dropped from 69.5 to 66.5, with the Over getting a nominal majority 54% of bets/53% of cash.

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET MONDAY: This matchup concludes the anticipated butt-kicking section of this report. Oklahoma (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS) followed its thrilling last-second win over Texas with a 52-31 rout of Texas Christian laying 12.5 points at home. Meanwhile, Kansas (1-5 SU) hasn’t cashed a single game this season, going 0-6 ATS. Among the 130 FBS teams, the Jayhawks are one of four that have yet to deliver for bettors.

The Sooners inched up to -38.5 at TwinSpires, where early tickets and dollars are both running about 3/1 on Oklahoma.

“Caleb Williams has ignited this offense, and we’ve seen a lot more support come the Sooners’ way, compared to previous weeks,” Lucas said of OU’s new starting quarterback. In fact, after Williams’ lights-out performance against TCU — completing 18 of 23 passes for 295 yards and four TDs, and rushing for 66 yards and another score — he’s now in the Heisman Trophy conversation, albeit still as a long shot.

“We’ll need Kansas in this spot,” Lucas said of the massive Week 8 underdog.

The total is steady at 67.5, with tickets 3/1 and money 2/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The Bruins rose from -1.5 to -2.5 early in the week at Caesars, then backed up to -1 a couple of times. The line is currently UCLA -1 on two-way play, with Oregon getting 52% of bets and 53% of money. The total reached 60.5 this morning from a 57.5 opener.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: UCLA had been a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings since Tuesday until plummeting to -1 Thursday night, in a game that opened at pick ’em. Oregon is actually nabbing 79% of spread bets, while the Bruins are seeing 60% of spread cash. The total rose from 57.5 to 60.5, with 77% of bets/86% of dollars on the Over.

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET MONDAY: Much like Oklahoma State, oddsmakers don’t have a lot of faith in No. 10 Oregon, which is a short ‘dog this week. With a 5-1 record on the field but a 1-5 ATS mark, that makes sense. In Week 7, the Ducks were 13.5-point home favorites against California, yet needed a fourth-quarter rally to scratch out a 24-17 victory.

UCLA (5-2 SU and ATS) is coming off a 24-17 win catching 1.5 points at Washington. The Bruins are up a tick to -1.5 at TwinSpires, taking 56% of spread money while the Ducks net 53% of spread tickets.

“Great two-way action so far,” Lucas said while noting the total is already up to 59, with 70% of bets/80% of cash on the Over. “Public and sharp money on Over 57.5 and 58.”

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Air Force is down to -3 from a -4 opener at DraftKings. San Diego State is drawing 58% of early tickets and 67% of early money on the spread. The total is a tidy 39, down 2 points from the 41 opener, with rather intriguing splits: 92% of tickets on the Over, 92% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 4 P.M. ET MONDAY: San Diego State (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) is the third Top 25 squad this week tagged as a road underdog vs. an unranked team. Week 7 might explain why: The Aztecs were 9-point favorites at San Jose State and couldn’t even score 9 points in regulation. The game was tied at 6 through four quarters, and SDSU ultimately won 19-13 in double overtime.

Meanwhile, Air Force (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) is rather quietly putting together a solid season. In Week 7, the Falcons were definitely a trendy ‘dog, opening +5 at Boise State and stretching to +6 before closing +3. Air Force was up to the task, posting a 24-17 outright victory for its fourth consecutive win and cover.

Air Force quickly jumped to -4.5, but San Diego State is now taking 64% of early spread bets and 59% of early spread dollars, leading TwinSpires to move the Falcons to -3.5.

“San Diego State will likely fall under the trendy ‘dog category this week, along with Oklahoma State,” Lucas said. “You usually see that when you have an undefeated ranked team as a ‘dog playing an unranked team.”

The total is already down to 40 — which is tied with Purdue-Wisconsin for the lowest total of the week — with tickets and money just short of 2/1 on the Under.