College Football Week 12 Odds: Oregon Vs Utah Pits Pros Vs Joes

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Utah went up as a 2-point chalk at WynnBet and is currently -3 for this Pac-12 showdown. Ticket count is dead even, and the Utes are actually landing 71% of spread dollars. The total opened at and is currently 58.5, with 62% of tickets/54% of money on the Over.

UPDATE NOON ET THURSDAY: Utah opened -2.5 at DraftKings and has spent much of the week at -3, save for a few minutes Monday at -3.5. That said, Oregon is landing 73% of spread tickets and 57% of spread dollars. The total moved from 58.5 to 59.5 to 59, with 93% of bets on the Over but money running almost dead even.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: As mentioned in last week’s CFP championship futures report: Rankings and polls are a helluva lot different than odds. No game better illustrates that than this Pac-12 clash.

Oregon (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) is No. 3 in the CFP rankings and No. 4 in the AP poll. But the Ducks are catching points at Utah (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS), which is No. 24 in the CFP and AP measures. Oregon topped Washington State 38-24 as 13.5-point home chalk in Week 11. Utah beat Arizona 38-29, but fell well short of covering as a 24-point road favorite.

TwinSpires hasn’t moved off Utes -3 yet, even though tickets and money are about 2/1 on the Ducks.

“With third-ranked Oregon getting points, it’s no surprise that the public is backing the Ducks,” Lucas said.

The total is also stable, with 57% of early tickets/60% of early cash on the Over. Utah is the top “Over” team in College football at 8-2, with its last six games in a row topping the total.

UPDATE NOON ET THURSDAY: Ohio State shuffled around a bit early at DraftKings, going from -19.5 to -20, then dropping straight to -18.5, all by Sunday night. On Monday morning, the line stabilized at Buckeyes -19, where it remains now. Ticket count and money are both almost 4/1 on big underdog Michigan State. The total dipped from 68 to 66.5 by Monday morning but has since rebounded to 68.5. Ticket count is 2/1 and money beyond 9/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: On the flip side of Oregon is apparently a team bookmakers believe in on the college football Week 12 odds board — a team the Ducks beat in Columbus back in Week 2. Ohio State (9-1 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) was a similar home chalk (-19) last week and hammered Purdue 59-31. The Buckeyes are on a 5-2 ATS run.

A week after losing at Purdue, Michigan State (9-1 SU, 7-1-2 ATS) topped Maryland 40-21 laying 11.5 points. The big underdog Spartans — who are among the top 5 ATS in teams in college football — must win this week to have any hope of making the CFP.

There’s been no early line movement at TwinSpires, but there’s an opinion forming, with Michigan State getting 70% of tickets/63% of money.

“Once again, the public thinks Ohio State is laying too many points,” Lucas said, noting the same trend for Purdue-Ohio State last week.

The total is down a tick to 66.5, with 53% of tickets on the Over and 66% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: WynnBet has moved Cincinnati down to a 10-point favorite this week, after opening the Bearcats at -12.5. And the betting splits bear that out, with SMU attracting 64% of bets and a whopping 92% of cash on the spread. In fact, SMU is WynnBet’s second-largest liability Saturday. The total opened at and is currently 65, with tickets 2/1 on the Over but money 3/1 on the Under.

UPDATE NOON ET THURSDAY: Cincinnati has been at -10.5 since lunch hour Tuesday, down 1.5 points from the -12 opener at DraftKings. The Bearcats are taking 55% of bets, while the Mustangs are netting 65% of cash. The total shifted from 65 to 64.5 to 65.5 and is now back to 65, with the Over taking 60% of bets/69% of cash.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: Cincinnati is undefeated and sits third in the AP poll but fifth in the CFP rankings, and thus on the outside looking in for the four-team playoff. But this game is the lone “quality” win the Bearcats can get to finish out the schedule — and SMU is no longer ranked.

That means Cincy needs help to move up or keep from being overtaken by one-loss teams such as Michigan, Michigan State, or perhaps Oklahoma State. In Week 11, the Bearcats (10-0 SU, 5-5 ATS) beat South Florida 45-28 but failed to cover as 24.5-point road faves. That’s the fourth straight week Cincy — which started out 5-0 ATS — hasn’t cashed against big spreads, so it’s not exactly rolling up style points.

SMU (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) halted a two-game skid by ripping Central Florida 55-28 laying 7 points at home.

Cincinnati is up to -12.5 at TwinSpires, with SMU taking 58% of tickets and the Bearcats seeing 56% of money.

“Good two-way action so far. A sharp buy on Cincy -12 early in the week,” Lucas said.

The total inched up to 65.5, with 63% of tickets/72% of dollars on the Over.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Alabama has been a fairly stable 21-point chalk this week at WynnBet, where bettors aren’t shying away from laying the lumber. Point-spread ticket count is beyond 3/1 and money 6/1 on the Crimson Tide. The total nudged from 59 to 58.5, with 84% of tickets on the Over and 56% of cash on the Under. The combined action for the spread, total and moneyline on this contest have it seeing the second-most action on the Week 12 slate.

UPDATE NOON ET THURSDAY: Alabama hit DraftKings’ odds board as a 20.5-point chalk and has spent much of the week at -21. Despite the hefty number, the Crimson Tide are collecting 71% of spread bets and 62% of spread dollars. The total opened at 56 and rose to 58 on interesting splits: 80% of bets on the Over/70% of cash on the Under.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: Circa Sports is so confident in an Alabama vs. Georgia SEC championship game that it posted odds on that matchup earlier today. (FWIW: Georgia -3.) That said, Alabama hasn’t yet clinched that bid, while Georgia has.

The Crimson Tide (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS), No. 2 in the CFP rankings, blasted lightweight New Mexico State 59-3 laying a whopping 51.5 points in Week 11. Arkansas (7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) edged LSU 16-13 in overtime, pushing as 3-point road chalk.

Early ticket count is just shy of 2/1 and money just beyond 2/1 on ‘Bama, which remains -20.5 at TwinSpires. The total rose to 56.5, with 54% of tickets/78% of cash on the Over. Arkansas is 6-3 to the Over this season.

“Sharp money on Over 56,” Lucas said.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Oklahoma State inched from -9.5 to -10 at WynnBet, on very lopsided tickets and money. The Cowboys, riding an 8-0 ATS streak, are collecting 88% of bets and 96% of money on the spread. The total opened at and is currently 56.5, with 76% of bets/89% of money on the Over.

UPDATE NOON ET THURSDAY: Oklahoma State opened as a 10.5-point favorite at DraftKings and stuck there until Wednesday afternoon, when the line dipped to -10. Ticket count is 2/1 and money 4/1 on the Cowboys. The total opened at and is currently 56.5, with a trip to 57.5 Monday; ticket count is 6/1 and money almost 2/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: Don’t discount Oklahoma State as a CFP contender. It would take continued Big Ten cannibalizing and an Oregon loss — which oddsmakers seem to think is coming — but the Cowboys might have a path.

In Week 11, Oklahoma State (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) torched TCU 63-17 as an 11.5-point home favorite. The Cowboys, currently 10th in the CFP, have cashed in eight straight games and are tied with Michigan and Syracuse for the best point-spread record. Texas Tech (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) notched a Week 11 upset, edging Iowa State 41-38 as a 13-point home pup.

Oklahoma State is up to -11 at TwinSpires, where 56% of bets are on the Red Raiders and 55% of cash on the Cowboys.

“Another good two-way-handle game early in the week,” Lucas said.

The total hasn’t moved, with 67% of tickets/59% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Michigan has been a fairly stable 14.5-point favorite at WynnBet, though this matchup is almost as lopsided as Oklahoma State-Texas Tech. The Wolverines are attracting 84% of spread tickets and 91% of spread cash. The total rose from 55 to 57.5 on almost exclusively Over play, at 92% of tickets/97% of cash.

UPDATE NOON ET THURSDAY: This line has been nailed to Michigan -14.5 at DraftKings all week, without even a juice adjustment. That’s despite very lopsided Wolverines point-spread play, at 92% of tickets and 91% of money. The total is up to 56.5 from a 55 opener. However, it’s two-way action, with 53% of tickets/51% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: Michigan (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) sits No. 6 in the CFP and certainly still has a path to the four-team playoff. But it’ll require not tripping up at Maryland, then a victory over visiting Ohio State in Week 13. And of course a win in the Big Ten title game.

In Week 11, Michigan narrowly fended off Penn State 21-17 as a 2.5-point road favorite. Meanwhile, Maryland (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) lost 40-21 at Michigan State as an 11.5-point ‘dog.

This game pits one of the best ATS teams in the nation (Michigan) against one of the worst (Maryland has failed to cover in six straight outings).

The Wolverines are up a notch to -15 at TwinSpires while drawing 63% of spread tickets/58% of spread money. The total is unchanged, with 57% of early tickets/64% of early money on the Over.

UPDATE NOON ET THURSDAY: By Wednesday night, Oklahoma was down to -3.5 from a -5 opener at DraftKings. Ticket count is 3/1 on the Sooners, but money is 2/1 on the underdog Cyclones. The total surged from 59.5 to 62 by late Monday night but has since receded to the 59.5 opener. The Under is drawing 56% of tickets/51% of money.

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: Oklahoma (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) might have just played its way out of the CFP, in which the Sooners are currently eighth. That’ll change when the new rankings come out Tuesday night after the Sooners lost at Baylor 27-14 as 4-point faves.

Iowa State (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) tumbled as a more significant chalk, 41-38  at Texas Tech as a 13-point road choice.

The first move at TwinSpires was toward the Cyclones, with the Sooners dipping to 4.5. Oklahoma is getting 68% of early bets and Iowa State 55% of early money.

“Sharp play on Iowa State +5,” Lucas said.

The total is unchanged, with 60% of tickets/67% of money on the Over. Iowa State has topped the total in all four of its road contests.

UPDATE NOON ET THURSDAY: Clemson opened as a 4-point fave at DraftKings, backed up to -3.5, then rose to -4.5, all by Monday afternoon. However, ticket count and money are running 5/1 on Wake Forest. The total moved from 56 to 55, then made its way to 57, with ticket count almost 9/1 and money 3/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: Neither of these teams will sniff the CFP, but this contest still has ACC championship game implications. Clemson (7-3 SU, 2-8 ATS), trying to salvage its season, won its third in a row in Week 11, drubbing Connecticut 44-7 as a 41-point home favorite. Wake Forest (9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS) rebounded from its loss at North Carolina, outlasting North Carolina State 45-42 as a 1-point home fave.

Clemson — which is among the worst point-spread teams in the country — is down to -3.5 at TwinSpires, where ticket count is almost 3/1 and money 4/1 on Wake.

“A mix of public and sharp money on Wake Forest. It’s already shaping up to as a big liability for us,” Lucas said.

The total is down 1.5 points to 54.5, with 53% of early bets/62% of early cash on the Under.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: WynnBet tabbed Notre Dame a 14-point chalk at the outset and is now up to -17. The Fighting Irish are landing 78% of spread tickets and and a whopping 99.2% of spread dollars. Notre Dame spread is WynnBet’s third-largest liability on the Week 12 docket. The total moved from 58 to 59, with 61% of tickets on the Under, but 79% of dollars on the Over.

UPDATE NOON ET THURSDAY: Notre Dame is out to -17 after opening -15.5 at DraftKings, and it’s practically all Fighting Irish on the spread. The favorite is attracting 86% of bets and 96% of money. The total has been at 59.5 pretty much all week, with 85% of bets/90% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: At No. 9 in the CFP rankings, Notre Dame still harbors slim playoff hopes but needs significant help. In Week 11, the Fighting Irish (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) rolled over Virginia 28-3 as a 9-point chalk — their fifth consecutive spread-cover.

Georgia Tech (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six, including a 41-30 Week 11 home loss getting 2 points vs. Boston College.

The line hasn’t moved yet, while Notre Dame is drawing 71% of spread tickets/61% of spread money. The total is up a point to 60.5, with tickets about 2/1 on the Under, but money 2/1 on the Over.

“Sharp play on Over 59.5,” Lucas said.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: WynnBet pegged this Big 12 clash a pick ’em, and it’s now at Kansas State -1. Baylor is taking 72% of tickets, but K-State is drawing 77% of money. The total is up to 49.5 from a 47.5 opener, with tickets 5/1 and money almost 3/1 on the Over.

UPDATE NOON ET THURSDAY: Kansas State opened -1 at DraftKings, where the line quickly flipped to Baylor -1.5 Sunday night, then to Baylor -1 Monday. Early Wednesday, it flipped again to K-State -1, where it sits now. But the Bears remain the play at this point, collecting 80% of bets and 64% of cash. The total opened at 50, briefly touched 50.5, dipped to 49 late Monday night, and is now back at the opener. The Over is getting 56% of bets and the Under 77% of money.

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: Baylor likely played CFP spoiler against Oklahoma in Week 11, with the Bears (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) winning 27-14 as 4-point home pups. Kansas State (7-3 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) posted a 34-17 win laying 6 points at home against West Virginia.

This line already jumped the fence at TwinSpires, with Baylor at -1.5. Ticket count is just shy of 2/1 and money almost 3/1 on the Bears, who have covered five of their last six. K-State, meanwhile, is 6-1 ATS in its last seven, cashing in the last four in a row.

“Sharp play on Baylor +1 and -1. The public is siding with Baylor, as well,” Lucas said.

The total is unchanged, with 55% of tickets on the Over/54% of money on the Under.