Welcome to our College Football Week 11 predictions! We’ll look at the top games of the day, odds on the betting board, and what that means for our favorite CFB picks and player props.
Check our NCAAF News Hub for all things Week 11!
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College Football Week 11 Predictions and Picks
Week 11 is here — and the playoff picture is narrowing fast. We’ve got heavyweight showdowns, resume-builders, and two or three “who will blink first” moments. Below: the top matchups, the storylines, and my picks.
Indiana Hoosiers at Penn State Nittany Lions
Line: Indiana –14.5. Total ~48.5.
Storyline:
- Indiana (9-0, 6-0 in Big Ten) is still undefeated, ranking No. 2 in the latest CFP/Top 25, and features QB Fernando Mendoza in Heisman chatter.
- Penn State enters at 3-5 (0-5 in Big Ten) under interim head coach Terry Smith after the departure of James Franklin
- Historically, PSU is far ahead against Indiana (25-2 all time) and has never lost to them at Beaver Stadium. But this Hoosiers team is different.
- Why it matters: Indiana has both offense and defense clicking; Penn State is in free-fall. If Indiana wants to solidify its playoff status, this is a game to dominate.
Pick: Indiana –14 — I expect the Hoosiers to win convincingly and cover.
Georgia Bulldogs at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Line: Georgia around –8.5. Total ~56.5.
Storyline:
- Georgia (7-1) has edged past its last two foes by narrow margins, signaling that every opponent takes them seriously.
- Mississippi State (5-4) came out strong earlier in the season, but has cooled off; however, they have shown they’re dangerous at home and can rally in the fourth quarter. They scored 31 points in the second half last week to come back against Arkansas.
- Why it matters: Georgia cannot take this game lightly — a slip here could puncture the playoff resume. MSU sees an opportunity.
Pick: MSU +8.5
Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers
Line: Texas A&M around –7.0. Total ~48.5
Storyline:
- A&M (8-0) remains the lone undefeated SEC team and has sights set on the league title game.
- Missouri (6-2) still has a chance for the playoff conversation, but is thin at QB and must run effectively.
- Why it matters: This is a “what do you want to be?” game — A&M wants to prove it’s for real; Missouri wants to show it belongs.
Pick: Texas A&M –7 — I expect the Aggies to take over and make this statement.
Oregon Ducks at Iowa Hawkeyes
Line: Oregon –6.5. Total ~42.5.
Storyline:
- Oregon (7-1) has strong offensive numbers but lacks signature wins outside Penn State; this road trip to Iowa is a chance to silence critics.
- Iowa (6-2) is comfortable at home and features a dominant offensive-line/run game combination that can slow down high-powered offenses.
- Why it matters: This is a true “prove-it” game for Oregon. If they win here, they bolster their playoff credentials. If Iowa wins, they refute the “offensive-line anchor” narrative.
Pick: Oregon –6.5.
BYU Cougars at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Line: Texas Tech –10.5. Total ~52.5.
Storyline:
- BYU (8-0) remains undefeated and has momentum, but hasn’t yet played a truly elite road test. They barely beat #23 Utah two weeks ago.
- Texas Tech (8-1) has looked dominant and is loaded up front on both sides of the ball — especially its defensive front.
- Why it matters: Big 12 title implications. A Tech win could hand them control; a BYU win could secure their place in the playoff conversation.
Pick: Texas Tech ML — I like the home-team edge and matchup advantage here.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers
Line: Alabama –9.5. Total ~49.5.
Storyline:
- Alabama (7-1) coming in solid, wanting to stay tight in the playoff race. Ty Simpson has been electric (20 TDs vs 1 INT)
- LSU (5-3) is in the first game post-Brian Kelly era and is under pressure to salvage something major late in the season.
- Why it matters: While LSU’s playoff hopes are cooked, this game still matters for conference positioning and perception. Alabama wants to dominate.
Pick: Alabama –9.5 — Tide handles business, doesn’t slip.
