College Football Week 10 Odds: Michigan State Draws Dollars Vs Purdue

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sportsbook has been fairly stable at Michigan State -3 this week, despite a flood of action on the short underdog. In fact, the Spartans have attracted more spread tickets than any other team on the Week 10 docket. Michigan State is netting 89% of spread bets and 77% of spread cash.

“Any time you have a ranked team as a small favorite, that’s going to be a big public side,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “Michigan State also has a Heisman contender. Come Saturday, we’ll need Purdue for quite a bit. They’re going to be one of our biggest needs overall that day. There’s more sharp respect for Purdue, though.”

The total opened at 52, got to 54 a couple of times and has been at 53.5 since Thursday morning.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Michigan State bounced from -2.5 to -3 a couple of times Sunday at DraftKings, then Monday morning went to -3 and stuck there. The Spartans are currently -3 (-105) while taking practically all the tickets and money, at 94% and 93%, respectively. The total went from 52.5 to 52, then up to 54 before landing at 53 this morning. Ticket count is almost 4/1 and money 3/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET MONDAY: Michigan State notched its signature win of the season in Week 9, rallying from a 16-point third-quarter deficit to do so. The Spartans (8-0 SU, 6-0-2 ATS) knocked off in-state rival and previously unbeaten Michigan 37-33 as 4-point home underdogs.

Purdue (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) is unranked, but also has a signature win. In Week 7, the Boilermakers stunned then-unbeaten Iowa 24-7 as 11-point road ‘dogs.

This game has already gone on a wild ride at TwinSpires, where the Spartans initially fell to -2.5. Late Monday afternoon, the line reversed course and sped past the opening number up to Michigan State -3.5. The Spartans are taking 76% of early bets and 60% of early money.

“The public is all over Michigan State already,” Lucas said. “We saw sharp money come in on Purdue +3 at the open. There’s Pros vs. Joes potential here.”

The total clicked up to 53 on modest Over play, at 56% of tickets/59% of money.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: There’s slight variation between Caesars books in Nevada, at Alabama -29, and Caesars in other U.S jurisdictions, at -28.5. Regardless, bettors favor taking the points with LSU, which is drawing 56% of tickets and 67% of cash. The total opened at 65 and, again, there’s variation, with Nevada books at 67 and others at 66.5.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Alabama opened as a 28-point chalk at DraftKings and has spent pretty much all week at -28.5. It’s two-way action, with 55% of bets on the Crimson Tide and 57% of cash taking the huge points with the Tigers. The total is out to 67 from a 65 opener, with ticket count almost 5/1 and money 3/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET MONDAY: We’re now entering the Anticipated Blowout Section of this article, with four CFP contenders laying big numbers on the college football Week 10 odds board. Alabama (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) is coming off a bye after waxing Tennessee 52-24 as 24.5-point chalk.

LSU (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) is letting coach Ed Orgeron play out the string, but he’s gone at the end of the season. The Tigers also had a Week 9 bye, after losing at Mississippi 31-17 as 9-point pups.

The Crimson Tide actually dropped a point early to -27.5 at TwinSpires, but rebounded to -28.5 by late Monday afternoon. ‘Bama is getting 54% of tickets, while huge ‘dog LSU is taking 55% of money.

“Good two-way action so far. Sharp money on LSU +28.5,” Lucas said.

The total rose a full point to 66, with ticket count 2/1 and money 3/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Cincinnati is at -22.5 from a -23 opener at Caesars books, where 85% of tickets and dollars are on the Bearcats. The total is up a tick from 54.5 to 55.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: DraftKings moved from Cincinnati -23 to -22.5 Monday and hasn’t budged since, though the number now is slightly juiced to Bearcats -115. Ticket count is 3/1 and money 4/1 on Cincy, which for the moment is on the outside looking in for the four-team College Football Playoff. Which means the Bearcats need to beat the hell out of their final four opponents to have a shot at an invite. The total rose from 54 to 55 late Wednesday night, with almost every ticket and dollar on the Over so far.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: Cincinnati (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) has to keep pouring on points to stay in the College Football Playoff picture. Only one of the Bearcats’ final four foes has a winning record — 23rd-ranked SMU (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS), which visits Cincinnati in Week 12.

The Bearcats weren’t very impressive at 1-6 Tulane in Week 9, trailing 14-12 at halftime before going on to a 31-12 win but never threatening to cash as a 27.5-point road chalk. Meanwhile, Tulsa (3-5 SU and ATS) went off as a 12-point home favorite against Navy and lost outright, 20-17.

Cincinnati is down a notch to 22.5 at TwinSpires, while drawing 67% of tickets and 54% of dollars.

“Sharp money on the ‘dog so far,” Lucas said.

The total rose to 54.5, with 55% of tickets/63% of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: In a matter of a few hours Sunday at DraftKings, Georgia opened -38, bottomed out at -37, peaked at -39 and went back to -38. On Tuesday, the Bulldogs inched up to -38.5, where the number sits now. Georgia is landing 60% of spread bets and 64% of spread dollars. The total rose from 57.5 to 60 on interesting splits: 75% of tickets on the Under, 60% of money on the Over.

This is the biggest spread in Week 10, and for good reason: The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS, while Missouri (0-8 ATS) has yet to cash all season.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: Georgia looked gettable and fallible for almost the entire first half against Florida in Week 9, leading just 3-0 with less than three minutes until halftime. Then the Bulldogs put up 21 points in just 129 seconds to take a 24-3 lead en route to a 34-7 bashing as a 14-point favorite.

And what can we can say about Missouri? Well, that it hasn’t covered the spread once all season, including against FCS foe Southeast Missouri State. To be fair, though, the Tigers were favored by 35.5 in that tilt and won 59-28. Still, Mizzou is 4-4 SU and 0-8 ATS, including 0-7 ATS against big-boy FBS competition.

But 38.5 points is a lot of points. And the first move at TwinSpires was down to 37.5, with Missouri landing 58% of tickets and 55% of money.

“The public is taking the points early in the week,” Lucas said.

The total hasn’t moved, with 72% of tickets/56% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: DraftKings went up a bit higher on this game, opening Ohio State as a 16.5-point road favorite. Within minutes Sunday, the line dipped to -15, and on Tuesday afternoon, it moved to -14.5, where it sits now. Contrary to the move, however, the Buckeyes are bagging 91% of spread tickets and 95% of spread cash. The total tumbled from 68 to 64 early in the week, rebounded to 67, and is now 66. The Over is taking 87% of tickets/72% of money.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: Ohio State probably would be favored by significantly more in this tilt if not for having its hands full last week as an 18.5-points home favorite vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes (7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) held off the Nittany Lions 33-24.

Nebraska (3-6 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) is on a three-game SU and ATS skid. In Week 9, the Huskers went off as 7.5-point home favorites against Purdue and lost outright, 28-23.

Bettors still jumped on the Buckeyes early, pushing this line to -15.5 at TwinSpires. Ticket count is 4/1 and money beyond 5/1 on Ohio State.

“This is already shaping up to be one of our biggest liabilities of the weekend. A flood of Ohio State tickets and money so far,” Lucas said. “The public is [also] on the Over.”

As such, the total is up a point to 64, with tickets and money both in the 3/1 range on the Over.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars pegged Texas A&M a 5-point favorite at the outset, quickly dipped to -4.5 and stuck there all week. Ticket count is two-way with a lean toward the Aggies, at 54%, but the road ‘dog Tigers are collecting 80% of money.

“A&M’s gotten a lot of mileage off the Alabama win, which is definitely impressive,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “But Auburn has been impressive too — they’ve only lost to Georgia and Penn State, while beating Arkansas and Ole Miss by double digits. A&M’s last two games were against Missouri and South Carolina, so this is a big step up in class.”

The total nudged from 50 to 49.5 midweek.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Texas A&M went from -4 to -5 and back to -4 in less than three hours Sunday at DraftKings. The Aggies have been at -4.5 since Monday morning, currently juiced to -115, with 69% of bets on A&M and money running almost dead even. The total went from 49 to 50 and back to 49 on rather wild splits: 92% of bets on the Over, 53% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: Auburn (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) notched a solid Week 9 win, beating Heisman Trophy candidate Matt Corral and Mississippi 31-20 as a 3-point home fave. Texas A&M (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) is on a three-game SU and ATS run that began with its 41-38 upset of Alabama catching 18.5 points at home. In Week 9, the Aggies pounded South Carolina 44-19 laying 19 points at home.

Texas A&M is down to -4 at TwinSpires, with 65% of tickets on the Aggies and 59% of dollars on the Tigers.

“Sharp money on Auburn +5 and +4.5. There’s a lot of interest so far in this game, likely one of our top handle games,” Lucas said.

The total is at 50.5, with 54% of bets on the Under and 58% of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: North Carolina landed on DraftKings’ odds board as a 1-point favorite and quickly stretched to -3, but has spent much of the week at -2.5. That said, ticket count is almost 4/1 and money almost 2/1 on unbeaten underdog Wake Forest. The total made a quick drop from 77 to 75.5, returned to 77 late Sunday night and settled at 76.5 Wednesday afternoon. The Over is landing 61% of bets and the Under 62% of cash.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: Wake Forest (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) is another unbeaten team going on the road against an unranked opponent. In this case, oddsmakers have even less faith in Wake than in Michigan State, with the Demon Deacons an underdog.

And that’s after Wake Forest punished Duke 45-7 as a 16-point home favorite in Week 9.

North Carolina (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) was a top-10 outfit to start the season but hasn’t played up to that form. In Week 9, the Tar Heels gave Notre Dame a run for three quarters but lost 44-34 as 3.5-point road pups.

North Carolina is still -2.5 at TwinSpires, but the price is juiced a bit to -117. Wake Forest is netting 70% of tickets and 54% of cash.

“This is another Pros vs. Joes game. The public is all over the ranked ‘dog, as we’ve seen many times before,” Lucas said. “We’ve seen some sharp play on UNC. [But] Wake Forest being in the top 10 for the first time in school history is going to attract a lot of support. [ESPN’s] Chris Fallica tweeted out that Wake Forest is the second team 8-0 or better to be an underdog vs. a team that did not have a winning record. Food for thought.”

The total crept to 76, with 58% of bets on the Under/54% of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Texas-San Antonio initially went from -11.5 to -12.5 at DraftKings, then dialed down to -10.5 by Monday afternoon. On Tuesday afternoon, UTSA rose to -11, where it remains now. Ticket count is 3/1-plus and money just shy of 2/1 on the the favored Roadrunners. The total opened at 52 and has been at 53 pretty much all week, with almost every ticket and 65% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: It’s a Conference USA battle of abbreviated Texas teams. Texas-San Antonio has been a winner on the field and against the bookies this season, standing 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS. Meanwhile, Texas-El Paso is a respectable 6-2 SU and ATS, but is a sizable home ‘dog this week.

TwinSpires’ initial line move was down to -11.5, with 65% of bets on UTSA and 55% of money on UTEP.

“Sharp money on UTEP +12 early in the week,” Lucas said.

The total also fell a half-point to 52.5, with 64% of bets/59% of cash on the Under.

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Notre Dame is a full three touchdown favorite at Caesars Sportsbook, up a half-point from the 20.5 opener. It’s two-way point-spread action, with ticket count running dead even and Navy actually netting 55% of money.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Notre Dame went from -20.5 to -22 in short order at DraftKings, then returned to -20.5 by late Sunday night. The Fighting Irish have since spent the week toggling between -21 and -20, but currently sit at the higher number. Navy is actually netting 60% of spread bets, while Notre Dame is nabbing 65% of spread money. The total is at 47.5 from a 46.5 opener and 46 low point, with ticket count 2/1 and money 5/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: Perhaps Notre Dame could’ve been included in the above Anticipated Blowout Section for CFP contenders. But are the Fighting Irish really CFP contenders? And do we even want to see them in the playoff again?

Notre Dame (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) took care of North Carolina 44-34 as 3.5-point home chalk in Week 9. Navy (2-6 SU, 5-3 ATS) upset Tulsa 20-17 as a 12-point road pup, a week after giving now-No. 2 Cincinnati a little scare in a 27-20 road loss catching 28.5 points.

The Irish are down a tick to -20.5 at TwinSpires, with tickets and money running 2/1 on the Midshipmen.

“After beating Tulsa and staying within one score of Cincy, the public is siding with Navy getting three TDs,” Lucas said.

The total inched down to 46.5, with 64% of tickets on the Over/52% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Mississippi is a 9.5-point fave at DraftKings, after opening -10, rising to -10.5, then dropping to -8.5 by Tuesday afternoon. Ticket count and money are both in the 5/1 range on the Rebels. The total initially inched from 68.5 to 69, but it’s now down 66.5, even though the Over is seeing 62% of bets/80% of cash.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: We’re throwing in this game just in case it becomes a sneaky good matchup come Saturday. In Week 9, Ole Miss (6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) lost at Auburn 31-20 as a 3-point ‘dog to snap a three-game upswing. Liberty (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) hasn’t played anyone near Ole Miss’ caliber and enters this game off a 62-17 wipeout of Massachusetts as 35.5-point faves.

The first line move at TwinSpires was actually down to Rebels -9.5, with 71% of tickets/62% of money on Ole Miss.

“Not a lot of attention on this game yet,” Lucas said.

The total is up a point to 69.5, with ticket count 2/1 and money 3/1 on the Over.