Each week, Props.com highlights the handful of schools that oddsmakers currently believe have the best College Football Playoff Odds — with the Orange and Cotton bowls hosting the semifinals on Dec. 31. While each contender’s ranking in the Associated Press Top 25 poll is included below, this exercise is all about chronicling where these teams currently stand in the betting market.
Odds are courtesy of DraftKings and updated as of 9 a.m. ET on Oct. 20.
Georgia Bulldogs
Record: 7-0
Ranking: 1st (last week: 1st)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -1200 / No +750
Georgia just handled a supposedly stringent three-game stretch against ranked SEC foes (Arkansas, Auburn, and Kentucky) by a cumulative score of 101-23. Underscoring how impressively dominant the Bulldogs were in that trio of contests, consider this: Arkansas, Auburn, and Kentucky entered their respective matchups against Georgia with combined records of 15-1 SU and 12-2 ATS (in lined games). And yet they got blitzed by margins of 37, 24, and 17 points.
When contemplating the Bulldogs’ remaining schedule, it’s possible a Nov. 27 trip to in-state rival Georgia Tech might be more cumbersome than imminent conference clashes with Florida, Missouri, and Tennessee.
Simply put, go ahead and pencil in Georgia (5-0 in league play) for the SEC championship game on Dec. 4 in Atlanta. And since it’s highly likely the Dawgs will be 12-0 by then and own the No. 1 rankings in both the Associated Press and College Football Playoff polls, a loss in the SEC title tilt almost certainly won’t knock Georgia out of the Final Four (especially if that loss is to Alabama).
These are the spoils granted to the nation’s best total defense (208.4 yards per game), best scoring defense (6.57 points per game), and an offense that has averaged 43.1 points in its last six outings. And that’s with backup quarterback Stetson Bennett IV taking the lion’s share of snaps.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Record: 6-1
Ranking: 4th (last week: 5th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -165 / No +145
Outside of top-ranked Georgia, Alabama has the best odds of any playoff contender, which might have some SEC fans feeling supremely confident about the conference squeezing both schools into the four-team semifinals (assuming the one-loss Crimson Tide run the table, including beating Georgia in the league championship game).
According to one metric, Alabama and Georgia currently rank 1-2 nationally in strength-of-schedule quotient. Thus, as noted above, it’s difficult to envision the College Football Playoff Committee heavily penalizing Georgia if they fall to the Crimson Tide in the SEC championship bout.
As if the defending champs actually need it, they’re getting a huge schedule break the rest of the way: Following consecutive trips to Texas A&M and Mississippi State the last two weeks, Alabama hosts its next four opponents—Tennessee, LSU, New Mexico State, and Arkansas—in Tuscaloosa, then ends the regular season with a short bus trip to face Auburn in the Iron Bowl on Nov. 27. Yep, the Tide don’t leave their home state the rest of the regular season.
That’s an ideal finishing kick for a powerhouse program that controls its own playoff destiny, despite the Texas A&M loss still being visible in the rear-view mirror.
Oklahoma Sooners
Record: 7-0
Ranking: 3rd (last week: 4th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -180 / No +155
Are we crazy here? Has Oklahoma’s national perception changed dramatically in less than two weeks simply because of a quarterback swap?
Judging from the most recent Heisman Trophy odds, along with the various sportsbooks making notable adjustments among the cluster of national-title contenders, the answer seems to be a resounding, “Yes!”
In early October, Caleb Williams was a relative nobody in college football circles, dutifully spending time on the Sooners bench backing up Spencer Rattler (the preseason Heisman Trophy favorite and presumptive first-round NFL draft pick).
But after Williams replaced the inconsistent Rattler after halftime on Oct. 9 and led a frenetic comeback victory over Texas (rallying from 21 down for a 55-48 victory), and then accounting for five total touchdowns in an easy rout of TCU last Saturday, the revitalized Sooners sit comfortably in the driver’s seat with a clear path to playoff prominence.
If Williams, who is completing 67.8 percent of his passes and has yet to throw an interception, can put an exclamation mark on this overnight-hero story and lead Oklahoma to an undefeated regular season and Big 12 championship, the Sooners will get an E-Z pass invite to the four-team playoff. Because in the College Football Playoff’s brief history, no undefeated Power Five conference champion has ever been left out of the party.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 5-1
Ranking: 5th (last week: 6th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes -115 / No -105
With regard to its Big Ten championship game prospects, Ohio State doesn’t need to waste any time scoreboard watching down the stretch. With upcoming matchups against Indiana (road), No. 7 Penn State (home), Nebraska (road), No. 25 Purdue (home), No. 9 Michigan State (home), and No. 7 Michigan (road), the Buckeyes (3-0 in conference) fully control their destiny in the race for the Big Ten East crown.
Just keep winning, and they won’t have to worry about any tiebreaker scenarios.
What makes Ohio State’s CFP odds better than anyone else in the loaded Big Ten? For starters, the Buckeyes lead all conference foes in total offense (562.7 yards per game), passing offense (352.2 ypg), and scoring offense (48.5 points per game). Also, OSU’s physical defense has allowed just 57 points in its last four outings (all victories).
Then there’s this: Of the four currently ranked teams on the Buckeyes’ upcoming schedule, three of them — Penn State, Michigan State, and Purdue — come to Columbus over the season’s final weeks.
Now for the “but”: While Ohio State’s path to the league title game is completely clear, its path to the College Football Playoff could be littered with roadblocks. If Cincinnati and Oklahoma remain undefeated through Championship Weekend; if Alabama knocks off Georgia in the SEC title game; and if Oregon wins out and forces an apples-to-apples résumé comparison with Ohio State — a team the Ducks beat in Columbus in September — the Buckeyes could very well be the odd team out.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Record: 6-0
Ranking: 2nd (last week: 3rd)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +110 / No -130
The College Football Playoff committee would never acknowledge it publicly, but with each passing week, it’s getting more difficult to trivialize Cincinnati’s chances of making the four-team playoff. Here’s why:
— The Bearcats are No. 2 in the Associated Press poll — the highest ranking of any non-Power Five team in the College Football Playoff era (2014-present).
— Iowa’s desultory home loss to Purdue last weekend guarantees that none of the Power Five leagues will have a championship game matching two undefeated squads. Yes, No. 4 Oklahoma and No. 8 Oklahoma State currently have unblemished records, but the Sooners and Cowboys also square off Nov. 27 in Stillwater.
— Cincinnati’s win over then-No. 9 Notre Dame subjectively ranks as college football’s second-best road victory of the season, trailing only Oregon over Ohio State. That has to help the Bearcats when the CFP committee starts discussing the merits of Final Four candidates.
Michigan Wolverines
Record: 6-0
Ranking: 6th (last week: 8th)
College Football Playoff odds: Yes +390 / No -525
Here’s hoping Michigan’s players and coaches got plenty of rest during the team’s bye week. Because the latter half of the schedule is filled with minefields, starting with trips to No. 9 Michigan State (Oct. 30) and No. 7 Penn State (Nov. 13), and concluding with a titanic home encounter against No. 5 Ohio State (Nov. 27).
The Wolverines would likely need to win all three top-10 clashes to clinch a no-brainer berth in the four-team playoff. That’s because a potential meeting with (and victory over) Big Ten West champ Iowa or Purdue in the conference championship game wouldn’t lead to a strength-of-schedule bump.
