As the season marches toward the College Football Playoff, Props.com will offer a substantive look into the odds of the country’s top teams that are gunning for a spot in the sport’s marquee event.
To the surprise of no one, head coach Nick Saban — he of the seven national championships, including six with Alabama — has his Crimson Tide positioned well to return to the four-team playoff and defend its 2020 title. It’s the cumulative result of being stacked with 5-star recruits on offense and having a large cluster of experienced athletes patrolling the defensive side of the ball.
But are the Crimson Tide the only robust favorite for this year’s Cotton and Orange bowls, which will host this year’s CFP semifinals?
The short answer: Nope.
Odds via DraftKings and FanDuel updated as of Tuesday, September 14 at 3:30 p.m. ET
ALABAMA (2-0)
THIS WEEK’S CFP ODDS:
DRAFTKINGS: Yes -700 / No +425
FANDUEL: Yes -700 / No +450
WHY ALABAMA HOLDS ALL THE PLAYOFF CARDS:
— The top-ranked Crimson Tide have won 16 straight games dating to the end of the 2019 season. During this run of excellence, Alabama has been favored by 15 points or more in all but one game.
— Charting Alabama’s last 12 outings, only one opponent scored more than 24 points (Florida in last year’s SEC title game) — and the Tide return the majority of the starters who were responsible for last season’s suffocating defense.
If Alabama rolls through the regular season unbeaten but loses to Georgia in the SEC title game (as a No. 1 vs. 2 matchup), the Crimson Tide likely would have enough goodwill built up to secure the fourth and final spot in the national semifinals.
— That’s because three potential playoff contenders — Clemson, Ohio State and Iowa State — have already suffered early losses.
— If the decision for the final CFP playoff slot came down to those four one-loss teams, the Crimson Tide almost certainly would get the nod from the playoff committee, based on strength of schedule, historical greatness (‘Bama has made the CFB a record six times) and TV ratings considerations (always a subtle factor).
— Speaking of schedule strength, Alabama’s slated to face five teams currently ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 (Florida, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Auburn). And the Crimson Tide will be prohibitive favorites in each matchup — in fact, according to BetPrep.com, the Tide are 15-point favorites for Saturday’s road showdown with No. 11 Florida. That could be the lowest point spread Bama will lay the rest of the regular season.
GEORGIA (2-0)
THIS WEEK’S ODDS:
DRAFTKINGS: Yes -210 / No +165
FANDUEL: Yes -235 / No +180
THE LATEST ON THE CRIMSON TIDE:
— Let’s start with the presumptive battle for the SEC East title between Florida and Georgia: Florida’s brutal regular-season slate includes No. 1 Alabama (Saturday), LSU, and the second-ranked Bulldogs. On the flip side, Georgia’s toughest conference outings could be Arkansas, Auburn, and Florida.
In other words, even if the Dawgs lose the head-to-head encounter to the Gators (October 30 in Jacksonville, Florida), UGA could still win the outright East crown.
— Through two games this season, Georgia ranks No. 1 nationally in scoring and total defense, allowing a mere 177 yards and 5 points per game (the latter is tied with Auburn). Offensively, the Dawgs have a strong core of playmakers and two highly capable quarterbacks in JT Daniels and Stetson Bennett IV, with the latter tossing five touchdowns in Saturday’s rout of UAB.
— Ohio State and Clemson, a pair of top-five teams entering the season, have already incurred early defeats. So unless the Big Ten, Pac-12, and ACC champions all go undefeated, a one-loss Georgia team probably would garner the fourth playoff slot.
OKLAHOMA (2-0)
THIS WEEK’S ODDS:
DRAFTKINGS: Yes -210 / No +165
FANDUEL: Yes -192 / No +144
THE LATEST ON THE SOONERS:
— Not only are the No. 4 Sooners are the highest-ranked team in the Big 12, by a considerable margin (10 slots ahead of Iowa State), but they will be prohibitive favorites heading into their remaining regular-season games, including November battles with Baylor (road), Iowa State (home) and Oklahoma State (road).
Oklahoma also will be heavy favorites against Kansas State on October 2 in Manhattan, as was the case the last two times the Sooners faced the Wildcats … and lost.
— The Sooners this season shouldn’t have the added stress that comes with scoreboard-watching. If they keep winning, they’re a lock for the national semifinals (Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl). Simple as that.
CLEMSON (1-1)
THIS WEEK’S ODDS:
DRAFTKINGS: Yes -145 / No +115
FANDUEL: Yes -140 / No +110
THE LATEST ON THE TIGERS:
— Georgia might be the only top-10 opponent on Clemson’s schedule this fall, and the Tigers failed that test over Labor Day weekend, managing just a field goal in a 10-3 loss.
— Because of that result, it’s hard to imagine Clemson leapfrogging the likes of Ohio State, Oregon, Texas A&M, Florida, Iowa State, or even UCLA if all those squads finish with one loss.
— Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei started the season with plenty of Heisman Trophy hype, but the on-field results have been so-so, to date.
— Even after Saturday’s 49-3 rout of lowly South Carolina State, the Tigers rank 11th in the 14-team ACC in total offense and scoring offense, and dead last rushing. Hardly vintage stuff.
OHIO STATE (1-1)
THIS WEEK’S ODDS:
DRAFTKINGS: Yes -140 / No +110
FANDUEL: Yes -142 / No +112
THE LATEST ON THE BUCKEYES:
— Saturday’s home loss to Oregon, while deflating, likely wouldn’t prevent Ohio State from reaching the four-team Playoff—presuming the Buckeyes breeze through the Big Ten regular-season and subsequent title game without a blemish.
— In that hypothetical case, strength-of-schedule victories over Indiana, No. 10 Penn State, No. 25 Michigan and perhaps No. 5 Iowa (in the conference championship game) would carry significant weight with the playoff committee.
History tells us Ohio State can absorb a September defeat and remain in the playoff hunt.
— The 2014 national championship squad fell to Virginia Tech at home before catching fire down the stretch and beating Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Alabama, and Oregon).
— The Buckeyes might have the best 1-2 receiver punch in the country, with Chris Olave (on track to become Ohio State’s all-time wideout) and Jaxson Smith-Njigba (7 catches, 145 yards, 2 TDs vs. Oregon). Throw in electrifying quarterback CJ Stroud—a serious Heisman contender—and it’s reasonable to think the Buckeyes can run the table from here.
OREGON (2-0)
THIS WEEK’S ODDS:
DRAFTKINGS: Yes +300 / No -425
FANDUEL: Yes +270 / No -380
THE LATEST ON THE DUCKS:
— Good luck finding a better résumé-building win than Oregon’s impressive road victory over No. 3 Ohio State. Playing in a hostile environment, the Ducks rolled for 500-plus total yards and forged leads of multiple touchdowns at three different times on Saturday. And they did it without their best player, DE Kayvon Thibodeaux (injury).
— Oregon, which climbed eight spots to No. 4 in this week’s AP poll, doesn’t have No. 19 Arizona State or USC on the regular-season docket.
The only major hurdle appears to be No. 13 UCLA on October 23. Survive that trip to Pasadena and the Ducks likely become heavy favorites for the Pac-12 title game (potential rematch with the Bruins).
— The Pac-12 has had just two representatives selected for the College Football Playoff since its inception seven years ago (Oregon in 2014, Washington in 2016).
— So history isn’t on the Ducks’ side. However, if they make it through the regular season unscathed, there’s no way they will get left out of the party — thanks to the Ohio State upset.
IOWA (2-0)
THIS WEEK’S ODDS:
DRAFTKINGS: Yes +650 / No -1200
FANDUEL: Yes +750 / No -1300
THE LATEST ON THE HAWKEYES:
— There’s no Ohio State on the regular-season slate, meaning the Hawkeyes wouldn’t be obligated to knock off the Buckeyes — unless they meet in the Big Ten title game.
— With signature victories over No. 17 Indiana and No. 9 Iowa State (on the road), Iowa is the only Power 5 school to beat multiple Top 25 teams to date — and the Hawkeyes’ criminally underrated defense surrendered a total of 23 points in both wins.
— The Hawkeyes only have to clear two more regular-season hurdles against current Top 25 teams: vs. Penn State (October 9) and at Wisconsin (October 30).
PENN STATE (2-0)
THIS WEEK’S ODDS:
DRAFTKINGS: Yes +700 / No -1400
FANDUEL: Yes +610 / No -1200
THE LATEST ON THE NITTANY LIONS:
— With road games against Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio State this season, along with this Saturday’s home clash versus No. 22 Auburn, Penn State might have the Big Ten’s highest strength-of-schedule and strength-of-opponents quotients by season’s end.
— So in a hypothetical world, Penn State has the capacity to absorb a regular-season defeat to Iowa (October 9), get revenge against the Hawkeyes in the conference title game, then represent the Big Ten in the CFP.
— Speaking of Iowa: Dating back to 2012, Penn State is 3-for-3 in its last three visits to Iowa City. As an undefeated Big Ten champion, Penn State likely would rate no lower than the No. 2 seed, as a result of its arduous road schedule.
CINCINNATI (2-0)
THIS WEEK’S ODDS:
DRAFTKINGS: Yes +1200 / No -3000
FANDUEL: Yes +1600 / No -3500
THE LATEST ON THE BEARCATS
— Remember the 2017 UCF team that went 13-0 overall, got left out of the national semifinals, then went on to shock Auburn in the Peach Bowl? Well, the current Cincinnati squad — ranked No. 8 in the AP poll — has seemingly heeded a valuable lesson from Central Florida’s heartache of four years ago.
— Throwing caution to the wind with their non-conference scheduling, the Bearcats have secured road trips to Indiana (Saturday) and Notre Dame (October 2) over the next three Saturdays. Both are must-win games if Cincy is going to be considered a legit playoff contender.
— With preseason playoff favorites like Ohio State, Iowa State, and Clemson already posting early-season losses, it would be difficult for the committee to leave an undefeated Cincinnati team off the CFP invite list. That is, unless four Power 5 conference champions are undefeated.
NOTRE DAME (2-0)
THIS WEEK’S ODDS:
DRAFTKINGS: Yes +1300 / No -4000
FANDUEL: Yes +1800 / No -4500
THE LATEST ON THE IRISH:
— With brand names such as Florida State, Wisconsin, USC, Cincinnati, Purdue, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Stanford, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech occupying Notre Dame’s schedule, no one could accuse the Fighting Irish of ducking opponents in 2021.
— But here’s the reality: With the Seminoles, Trojans, Boilermakers, Cardinal, Tar Heels, Yellow Jackets, and maybe even the Badgers enduring so-so seasons, the Irish almost certainly can’t afford a single loss — and they almost had one last week against Toledo in South Bend.
— With basically no margin for error, Notre Dame this week kicks off a four-week gauntlet of Purdue (Saturday in South Bend), No. 18 Wisconsin (neutral field), No. 8 Cincinnati (home), and No. 15 Virginia Tech (road) without a breather.
TEXAS A&M (2-0)
THIS WEEK’S ODDS:
DRAFTKINGS: Yes +1400 / No -4000
FANDUEL: Yes +1800 / No -4500
THE LATEST ON THE AGGIES:
— Last week, with starting QB Haynes King (leg fracture) on the sidelines, Texas A&M required a last-minute touchdown from tailback Isaiah Spiller to eke out a 10-7 victory at unranked Colorado. Not exactly the kind of non-conference road triumph that appeals to the CFP committee.
— Texas A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Arkansas are all in the same boat, in terms of true playoff viability: They all need to get to the SEC title game to have a chance, and the only conceivable way they do that is to beat SEC West rival Alabama head-to-head — unless the Crimson Tide lose twice (highly unlikely).
— Why is it difficult to believe the Aggies will take down Alabama on October 9 in College Station? Besides the fact King won’t be on the field, the Crimson Tide has whipped A&M eight straight times. Average victory margin: only 22.5 points.
MICHIGAN (2-0)
THIS WEEK’S ODDS:
DRAFTKINGS: Yes +1600 / No -5000
FANDUEL: Yes +1800 / No -4500
THE LATEST ON THE WOLVERINES:
— Michigan’s upcoming schedule includes three daunting trips to Wisconsin (October 2), Michigan State (October 30), and No. 10 Penn State (October 30). Then there’s the November 27 home tilt against Ohio State, which has beaten the Wolverines 15 times since 2004, scoring 30 or more points in every meeting since 2013.
— While the Wolverines have looked strong in their two season-opening blowout victories, they also suffered one big loss: Ronnie Bell, arguably the Wolverines’ most dynamic playmaker, suffered a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago.
— Michigan’s victory over Washington on Saturday lost some value simply because the Huskies fell to FCS school Montana at home the previous week … while scoring only seven points.
FLORIDA (2-0)
THIS WEEK’S ODDS:
DRAFTKINGS: Yes +1800 / No -6000
FANDUEL: Yes +2300 / No -6000
THE LATEST ON THE GATORS:
— Florida’s scheduling problems don’t end with Saturday’s clash against Alabama in Gainesville. Soon after, there’s a sneaky-tough trip to Kentucky (October 2), the annual crossover grudge match with LSU (October 16 in Baton Rouge), and the high-profile clash with No. 2 Georgia on Halloween weekend (neutral site). It’s a formidable stretch for a Gators team that’s essentially breaking in two new quarterbacks on the fly (Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson).
— The Gators have never reached the four-team playoff, and it most likely won’t happen this season if they’re obligated to face (and defeat) Alabama twice (including in the SEC title game). Also, Florida’s non-conference opponents (South Florida, Samford, and currently winless Florida State) will not help their chances.
