College football bowl odds tend to get overshadowed, rightly so, by the two elephants in the room: the College Football Playoff semifinals. But remember, those two games are actually part of the New Year’s Six bowl odds market.
That means we’ve got four more marquee bowl games, including Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, and Utah vs. Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.
Multiple sportsbook insiders provided insights on opening/current lines and action in the New Year’s Six college football bowl odds market. Check back throughout the month for action updates.
College Football Bowl Odds: New Year’s Six
| Matchup | Time | Spread | Over/Under |
| Pittsburgh vs Michigan State | 7 p.m. ET Dec. 30 | Michigan State -3.5 | 55 |
| Oklahoma State vs Notre Dame | 1 p.m. ET Jan. 1 | Notre Dame -1 | 45.5 |
| Utah vs Ohio State | 5 p.m. ET Jan. 1 | Ohio State -4.5 | 63.5 |
| Baylor vs Mississippi | 8:45 p.m. ET Jan. 1 | Mississippi -2 | 60.5 |
Odds via TwinSpires Sportsbook and updated as of 8:15 p.m. ET on Jan. 1
Sugar Bowl
No. 7 Baylor vs No. 8 Mississippi
Opening line: Ole Miss -1.5, Over/Under 50.5
UPDATE 8:15 P.M. ET SATURDAY, JAN. 1: Shortly before kickoff, Mississippi has stretched out to -2, with a lot of activity in the past hour at TwinSpires. The line dropped from Ole Miss -1.5 to pick ’em, then shot, then bounced back to Ole Miss -2. Baylor is taking 58% of spread tickets and 56% of spread money.
“Sharp play on both sides now. Late sharp money on Ole Miss,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.
The total is all the way up to 60, a steady climb throughout the month from a 50.5 opener. Ticket count is 3/1 and money beyond 6/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY, JAN. 1: Both teams spent time as short favorites over the past four weeks at Caesars Sportsbook. Mississippi opened as a 2-point chalk, and within a day, the line flipped to Baylor -1.5. On Dec. 24, the line shifted to Rebels -1, then to Rebels -1.5 Monday. This morning, the number briefly dipped to pick, then returned to Ole Miss -1.
Mississippi is landing 58% of spread tickets and 71% of spread dollars. After opening at 51, the total reached 55 Dec. 14 and 56 Monday, then over the past two days shot up to 59. Ticket count is 6/1 on the Over, and practically all the cash is on the Over.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET THURSDAY, DEC. 30: This game has hovered around pick ’em at BetMGM Nevada since opening Mississippi -1.5 on Dec. 5. A day later, the line jumped the fence to Baylor -1, then went to Baylor -1.5 on Dec. 7. The point spread shifted back to pick on Dec. 16, then to Ole Miss -1 Sunday and -1.5 Tuesday — right back where it started.
“Tickets are dead even — literally two more tickets on Baylor. And money is really close, too, a few more dollars on Baylor,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said.
The total shot from 50.5 to 53.5 in the first three days it was on the board, and it’s now at 55.5.
“Definitely sharp play on the Over, at 50, 51, 53.5,” Shelton said. “Tickets are 4/1 on the Over, and money is almost 20/1 on the Over.”
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET TUESDAY, DEC. 21: This line bounced around a lot in the first two days it was up at TwinSpires. Mississippi opened -1.5, the number flipped to Baylor -1.5 on sharp play, and professional cash quickly took it back to Ole Miss -1.5.
So perhaps it’s apropos that this number is now pick ’em. Ticket count is just shy of 2/1 Baylor, and money is exactly 2/1 Bears.
“It’s a mix of public and sharp money on Baylor so far,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.
The total stretched from 50.5 to 54.5, with the Over attracting 60% of tickets/79% of money.
“Sharp money on the Over since this total opened,” Lucas said.
UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET MONDAY, DEC. 13: Baylor opened -1.5 at PointsBet USA and made a couple of early trips to -1, where the line has been since Wednesday.
“Good two-way action on this Sugar Bowl matchup. Baylor is currently attracting 81% of the spread-bet count, while Ole Miss is seeing 56% of the handle on its side,” PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said.
The total opened at 53.5 and twice reached 55, including this afternoon.
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET TUESDAY, DEC. 7: Baylor played CFP spoiler against Oklahoma State on Dec. 4, and in the process secured a lucrative New Year’s Six bowl bid. The Bears (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS) raced out to a 21-3 lead in the Big 12 title game, and their defense made a game-saving goal-line stand to secure a 21-16 victory as 7-point pups. Baylor went 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS in its last eight games, including a Week 10 upset of visiting Oklahoma.
Mississippi (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) also closed the season on a 7-1 run (5-3 ATS) in the ever-difficult SEC. In Week 13 against rival Mississippi State, the Rebels coasted to a 31-21 victory laying 2.5 points on the road.
This line has flipped a couple of times in the early going at TwinSpires. After opening Ole Miss -1.5, it quickly went to pick ’em, then to Baylor -1.5. But this afternoon, it’s back to Mississippi -1.5, with 53% of tickets/59% of money on Baylor.
“Sharp money [early] on Baylor +1.5 and pick. There’s sharp money on both sides so far,” Lucas said.
The total is already out to 53 from a 50.5 opener, with ticket count approaching 4/1 and money 5/1 on the Over.
“It’s a mix of public and sharp money on the Over,” Lucas said. “I can already see us needing the Under here.”
Rose Bowl
No. 11 Utah vs No. 6 Ohio State
Opening line: Ohio Sate -7, Over/Under 67
UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY, JAN. 1: Back on Dec. 5, Ohio State opened as a 7-point chalk at TwinSpires. Since then, the line has gone toward Utah, most notably this past week after Ohio State had key opt-outs. The Buckeyes bottomed out at -4, and with kickoff approaching just edged up to -4.5. Ohio State is taking 65% of tickets/59% of money.
“Sharp play on Utah,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. “There’s quite a bit of parlay liability tied to Ohio State moneyline.”
The total toggled between 67 and 66 early on, then dipped to 64 on the Ohio State opt-out news. Ticket count is almost even, while 65% of money is on the Under.
UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY, JAN. 1: Almost all the movement on this line came earlier this week, when opt-outs hit Ohio State. The Buckeyes opened -7 at Caesars Sportsbook on Dec. 5, quickly dipped to -6.5, then on Monday touched pretty much every number on the way down to -4. Ohio State is currently -4, but still a popular play, with tickets 2/1 and money 3/1 on the Buckeyes.
The total opened at 66.5, peaked early at 67 and is now down to 64, with 51% of bets/57% of cash on the Over.
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY, DEC. 30: Ohio State had a wave of bowl opt-outs earlier this week, which put a dent in this line. Among the the most prominent Buckeyes who have chosen to stay on the sidelines are star wideouts Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave — two players who this year combined for 135 catches, 1,994 yards, and 25 touchdowns.
Ohio State’s opt-outs led to a 2-point line drop at TwinSpires Sportsbook, from Buckeyes -6.5 to -4.5.
“There was sharp money on Utah +7 and +6,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.
It’s two-way action on the point spread, with 60% of tickets on Ohio State and 59% of money on Utah. The total moved from 67 to 66, returned to 67, then dropped to 64.5 on the opt-out news. The Over is seeing 55% of tickets, while the Under is collecting 58% of money.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET TUESDAY, DEC. 21: TwinSpires Sportsbook opened Ohio State -7, quickly dropped to -6.5, and is still at -6.5 tonight. The Buckeyes are collecting 69% of spread tickets and 54% of spread dollars.
“Sharp money on Utah +7,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.
The total dipped from 67 to 66, then returned to 67. Ticket count is almost 2/1 and money almost 3/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET MONDAY, DEC. 13: PointsBet USA opened Ohio State as a 7-point favorite and dipped to -6.5 early on. There’s been no movement since, even though early action is all Buckeyes.
“Heavy action on Ohio State spread as of now. The Buckeyes are currently attracting 82% of the bet count and 92% of the handle,” PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said. “That being said, we are seeing some reverse line movement globally on this spread, and after opening at Ohio State -7, we shifted it down to Ohio State -6.5. It will be interesting to see where this line movement goes in the next few weeks, leading up to the game.”
The total got down to 65.5 tonight after opening at 67.
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET TUESDAY, DEC. 7: Ohio State (10-2 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) saw its CFP hopes doused in a Week 13 setback at Michigan. The Buckeyes entered that contest as 6.5-point favorites and trailed only 14-13 at halftime. But they had no answer for Michigan in the second half, losing 41-27 to halt a 9-0 SU/6-3 ATS run.
Utah is perhaps a team nobody wants to mess with right now. In the past three weeks, the Utes (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS) have steamrolled Oregon twice by the combined score of 76-17. And Oregon went to Columbus in early September and stunned the Buckeyes 35-28 as a 15-point road pup.
On Nov. 20, Utah was a 3.5-point home chalk against the Ducks and rumbled to a 38-7 victory. In the Dec. 4 Big 12 final, Utah was a 3-point neutral-site fave and essentially provided a repeat, winning 38-10.
TwinSpires’ first move on the Rose Bowl was toward Utah, with Ohio State dipping to -6.5. Still, the Buckeyes are seeing 74% of early spread bets, but just 55% of early spread cash.
“Sharp money on Utah +7,” Lucas said. “There’s still a lot of time, but this could end up being a Pros vs. Joes game.”
The total opened at and remains 67, with early tickets and money in the 3/1 range on the Over.
Fiesta Bowl
No. 9 Oklahoma State vs No. 5 Notre Dame
Opening line: Notre Dame -2, Over/Under 45
UPDATE 11:15 A.M. ET SATURDAY, JAN. 1: Notre Dame was a slim favorite throughout December at Caesars Sportsbook, opening -1.5, peaking early at -2.5, and returning to -1.5 Dec. 19. On Friday, the Fighting Irish dipped to -1 and then to pick, before rebounding to -1 this morning. Ticket count and money are just beyond 2/1 on Notre Dame. The total rose from 45.5 to 46 on Monday, then back to 45.5 this morning, 69% of tickets on the Over/62% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY, DEC. 29: Notre Dame hit Caesars Sportsbook’s odds board as a 2.5-point favorite and dipped to -1.5 a couple of times. In fact, at Caesars in Nevada, the line is still Fighting Irish -1.5, though it’s -2 in several other jurisdictions. Notre Dame is attracting 71% of tickets and 70% of money on the spread. However, Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesars, is more sold on the short underdog.
“I actually think Oklahoma State’s the better team. I made them a small favorite,” Pullen said. “The Big 12 is a tough conference, and I rate [it] quite highly in terms of strength of conference. If you throw out Kansas, every game is a battle. But Notre Dame has the name, and they’re only a small favorite, so I’m not surprised they’re getting most of the action so far. Their recent history in these big bowl games hasn’t been good, but every game and every year is different.”
The total moved from 44.5 to 45.5 on interesting splits: 65% of tickets on the Over/63% of money on the Under.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET TUESDAY, DEC. 21: Notre Dame opened as a 2-point chalk at TwinSpires Sportsbook and quickly went to -2.5 on sharp play. But the Fighting Irish then receded to the opener and are now -1.5. Notre Dame is netting 56% of spread tickets, while 61% of spread money is on Oklahoma State.
“Sharp money on Oklahoma State +2,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.
The total moved from 45 to 44.5 to 45.5 within the first couple of days, and it remains 45.5 tonight. The Over is landing 60% of tickets/68% of money.
UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET MONDAY, DEC. 13: Notre Dame landed on PointsBet USA’s college football bowl odds board as a slim 1.5-point chalk. From there, the Fighting Irish made a couple trips to -2.5, and they’re now at -2.
“We’re currently seeing heavy Notre Dame action on the spread, with 84% of the bet count and 78% of the handle,” PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said.
The total briefly moved from 45.5 to 46, then returned to 45.5 since Dec. 7. Splits aren’t yet available, as action on the total is limited thus far.
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET TUESDAY, DEC. 7: Notre Dame was on the cusp of the CFP, finishing No. 5 in the final rankings. That was entirely due to a regular-season home loss to No. 4 Cincinnati on Oct. 2. Since then, the Fighting Irish (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) have been a winning and spread-covering machine, at 7-0 SU and ATS. Six of those wins were double-digit blowouts, with the last four all coming by at least 25 points.
The Irish capped the regular season with a 45-14 rout of Stanford as a 20.5-point road favorite. But in the wake of that game, coach Brian Kelly darted for LSU . Marcus Freeman was promoted from defensive coordinator to head coach and will guide Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.
Oklahoma State had a legitimate CFP shot and might have thrown a monkey wrench into Cincinnati’s season if the Cowboys took care of Baylor in the Big 12 championship. Which they did not. Oklahoma State fell behind 21-3 and saw its CFP hopes crash in a 21-16 loss. The Cowboys (11-2 SU, 9-3-1 ATS) had first-and-goal at the 2-yard line in the final minutes and failed on all four plays.
Notre Dame is up a tick to -2.5 in TwinSpires’ college football bowl odds market. The Cowboys are drawing 55% of tickets and the Irish 64% of money on the spread.
“Sharp money on Notre Dame -2 as soon as this line opened,” said Lucas, a trading analyst with TwinSpires.
The total moved from 45 to 44.5, then up to 45.5, with 63% of bets/59% of money on the Over.
Peach Bowl
No. 12 Pittsburgh vs No. 10 Michigan State
Opening line: Pittsburgh -4.5, Over/Under 63
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY, DEC. 30: An hour before kickoff, Michigan State is a 3.5-point favorite at BetMGM Nevada, which opened this contest Pittsburgh -3.5. As noted previously, Pitt QB Kenny Pickett opted out, as did Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III. But bettors and oddsmakers clearly feel Pitt is at a bigger disadvantage.
“We need Pittsburgh here,” BetMGM Nevada’s Jeff Stoneback said of the position the book’s Vegas operations hold. “There are quite a few tickets on the game. We’re looking at 4/1 tickets on Michigan State, and the money is 5/1.”
The total opened at 63.5, plunged to 57 mid-December on the opt-outs, and bottomed out at 55. It’s now 55.5, with ticket count very close, but money 7/1 on the Under.
“We actually do need the Over,” Stoneback said.
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY, DEC. 30: Less than seven hours until the first of the New Year’s Six bowls, Michigan State is a 3.5-point favorite at WynnBet. The line opened at Pittsburgh -4 back on Dec. 6, but the mid-December opt-out of Panthers QB Kenny Pickett sent this line running the other direction. By Dec. 18, the Spartans — even with the opt-out of star running back Kenneth Walker III — went to -2.5.
The line stuck at -2.5 until this morning, when it rose to Spartans -3, then to -3.5. Point-spread ticket count is beyond 3/1 and money beyond 9/1 on Michigan State. The total tumbled from 63 to 56 by Dec. 18 and this morning hit its low point of 55. Tickets are just shy of 2/1 on the Over, while money is just beyond 2/1 on the Under.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET TUESDAY, DEC. 21: This game is quickly becoming more about who’s not playing than who is. Pitt QB Kenny Pickett announced Dec. 16 that he’s opting out and heading to the NFL Draft. That same day, Michigan State star running back Kenneth Walker III also opted out and declared for the draft.
Oddsmakers and bettors clearly put more weight on Pickett than Walker. At TwinSpires, Pittsburgh opened -4.5 at TwinSpires, and the line is now Michigan State -2.5. The Spartans are getting a nominal majority 54% of bets, but that’s translating to 75% of cash.
“An influx of money on Michigan State since the Pickett news. We’ll need Pittsburgh for a sizable amount,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.
With star power absent from both teams, the total plunged from 63 to 55.5. Ticket count is almost 2/1 and money 4/1 on the Under for this Dec. 30 clash, the first of the New Year’s Six games.
UPDATE 9:30 P.M. ET MONDAY, DEC. 13: This line has seen the most significant movement of all the New Year’s Six contests. And it’s a big move, 6 points in all at PointsBet USA, jumping the fence with Michigan State now the favorite.
“Michigan State is currently attracting 76% of the spread-bet count and 95% of the spread handle. In addition, there have been rumors swirling that Pitt QB [and projected first-round NFL draft pick] Kenny Pickett may sit out the game. Consequently, after opening Pitt as 4-point favorites, that line has fully flipped and Michigan State is laying 2,” PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said.
Pickett’s uncertainty is also impacting the total, which dipped from 63 a week ago to 59.5 by this morning. The total is now at 60.
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET TUESDAY, DEC. 7: Michigan State was riding high after a Week 9 home upset of in-state rival Michigan kept alive a perfect season. But the Spartans lost two of their last four to finish 10-2 SU (8-2-2 ATS). In the regular-season finale, Michigan State edged Penn State 30-27 catching 3.5 points at home.
Pittsburgh (11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS) has somewhat quietly been delivering on the field and on the odds board. The Panthers thumped Wake Forest 45-21 laying 3.5 points in the ACC title tilt, outscoring the Demon Deacons 31-0 after the first quarer. Pitt is on a 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS tear, including 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in its last five.
However, the line at TwinSpires is moving against the Panthers. After initially dipping to -4 and returning to -4.5, the Panthers are now down to -2.5. The Spartans are taking 58% of spread tickets/68% of spread dollars.
“Sharp action on Michigan State +4.5 and +3.5,” Lucas said.
The total shifted from 63 to 62.5, then to 63.5, with the Over taking 63% of tickets/59% of cash.
