Welcome to our College Football Week 5 predictions! We’ll look at the top games of the day and what that means for our favorite CFB picks and player props.
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College Football Week 5 Predictions & Preview
We’re into Week 5—the last weekend of September—and while the first month hasn’t seen too many shocking shake-ups, the table is set for a major shake this Saturday.
The AP poll’s top 9 teams are still unbeaten, but with several ranked-vs-ranked matchups and road challenges for contenders, that’s about to change. This week finally delivers the heavyweight battles fans have been waiting for.
Reminder: all picks below are based on opening lines available Thursday. Check your sportsbook for updated numbers—late movement could shift things before kickoff.
Friday Night Spotlight
No. 8 Florida State at Virginia (ESPN, 7 p.m.) – FSU opened the season by shocking Alabama and has steamrolled lesser opponents since (two 65+ point outbursts). Virginia, 3–1, is scrappy but dropped a close one to NC State. Florida State has Miami looming next week, so expect a focused tune-up. Pick: Florida State (-6) to handle business on the road in this ACC clash.
No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (9 p.m., ESPN2) – TCU has been shaky late in games, letting SMU hang around last week. Meanwhile, ASU is off a gritty three-point road win (almost half their points were via field goal) at Baylor and returns home under the Friday night lights. Momentum and home energy tilt this one toward Tempe. Pick: Arizona State ML pulls the upset in a tight one.
Saturday Slate – Noon Kickoffs
No. 16 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (ESPN) – Haynes King has been a dual-threat revelation—five rushing TDs already—and the Yellow Jackets look like a legit ACC dark horse. Wake hasn’t faced a real test yet. Pick: Georgia Tech rolls, King strengthens his quiet Heisman case.
No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois (FOX Big Noon) – USC QB Jayden Maiava is averaging 10 yards per completion and has nine TDs with no picks. Illinois? Just got shredded by Indiana, allowing 63 points. The Illini defense isn’t Playoff-caliber, they are pretenders and won’t be ranked next week. Pick: USC ML.
Afternoon Showdowns (3:30 p.m.)
No. 1 Ohio State at Washington (CBS) – Ohio State QB Julian Sayin is passable (7 TDs, 3 INTs) but hasn’t looked untouchable. Washington has quietly put up 38+ in every game and QB Demond Williams Jr. is electric, averaging 73% completions. Huskies won’t back down at Husky Stadium. Pick: Washington keeps it close, OSU squeaks out a win after their bye week.
No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (ABC) – Great ranked matchup. Biggest storyline? Off the field, Lane Kiffin’s daughter announced a relationship with LSU linebacker Whit Weeks. Lane tweeted take the over. I’m listening to coach Pick: OVER
No. 11 Indiana at Iowa (FOX) – Transfer QB Fernando Mendoza has lit it up—14 TDs, no picks—and looks like a real Heisman name. Iowa’s defense isn’t its usual elite form and got gashed by Rutgers last week for 28 points Pick: Indiana (-8.5) to stay unbeaten.
Prime-Time Blockbusters (7:30 p.m.)
No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (ABC) – This is the White Out game, and Beaver Stadium will be wild. But history isn’t kind to James Franklin (just 4–20 vs. AP top-10 teams). Oregon’s freshman QB Dante Moore has handled every test so far, and PSU’s Drew Allar has looked shaky in spots. Pick: Oregon +3.5 to cover, with real upset potential.
No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (CBS) – Ty Simpson has turned Alabama’s offense around the last two weeks, but the Tide were pushed around by Florida State in Week 1. Georgia has been leaky defensively (Tennessee dropped 41 on them), so expect points. At home, the Bulldogs should edge it. Pick: Georgia wins, but the safer bet is the over (53.5).
Quick Hits & Storylines
- Heisman Watch: Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) is now the frontrunner after dismantling Illinois. Haynes King (Georgia Tech) lurks as a sleeper.
- SEC Wildcards: Auburn–Texas A&M and LSU–Ole Miss could define the league’s middle tier and the Playoff race.
- Upset Radar: Arizona State on Friday night, Washington in the afternoon, and Ole Miss all have realistic paths to big-time statement wins.
That’s the Week 5 rundown: marquee games finally on deck, Heisman contenders emerging, and unbeaten giants walking into real danger. Buckle up—the last week of September could be the one that rewrites the Playoff picture.
