If you’re looking for Bucs vs 49ers predictions, you’re in the right place!
We’ve got a wild NFC showdown this week with the 49ers heading to Florida to battle Tampa Bay.
Baker Mayfield continues to get it done without Mike Evans and Bucky Irving, while the 49ers are more than holding their own without a bulk of their regular skill players.
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Bucs vs 49ers Predictions: Player Props and Preview
Matt LaMarca is here to circle his favorite player props for Sunday’s game.
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Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards – Higher Than 33.5
Would Baker Mayfield be the MVP of the league if the season ended after five weeks? It’s possible. That’s how good he’s been for Tampa Bay this season. He’s racked up 10 touchdown passes through his first five games, and he’s already engineered four “game-winning drives.”
He doesn’t grade out quite as well in some of the advanced metrics, but he still ranks in the top nine at the position in both PFF Grade and EPA + CPOE composite.
From a volume perspective, the Bucs have averaged the sixth-most passing yards per game this season, and there should be opportunities for Shepard to make some plays on Sunday.
The team is still without Mike Evans, while Chris Godwin has also been ruled out vs. the 49ers. That leaves only talented rookie Emeka Egbuka ahead of Shepard on the depth chart.
Shepard has already been a decent part of the Bucs’ passing attack of late. He has a 73% route participation for the year, and he’s been targeted on 16% of his routes run.
He took a step back from a route standpoint in Week 5, but that was with Godwin available. Even so, Shepard was still targeted on 25% of his routes, and he finished with four catches, 24 yards, and a score.
Shepard has ultimately seen at least four targets in every game this season, and he’s had at least 34 receiving yards in three of them. The two exceptions were the two games with Godwin back in the lineup, so this feels like an excellent buy-low opportunity.
The 49ers defense can be exploited through the air – they’re 19th in pass defense EPA – and with Mayfield playing as well as any quarterback in football at the moment, it’s logical to get some exposure to some of his pass-catchers.
Where to play: Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards – Higher Than 33.5 | Underdog
Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards – Higher Than 48.5
While the Bucs are clearly dealing with some injuries at receiver, the 49ers have been absolutely decimated of late.
They were without both Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall in Week 5, while Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle both remain out of the lineup. It’s possible that Jennings returns to the lineup in Week 6, but Pearsall is tentatively expected to miss another contest.
With so much talent on the sidelines, McCaffrey has had to take on a herculean workload. Specifically, he’s commanded a WR1-like workload as a receiver.
He owns a massive 27% target share through the first five weeks, which is the top mark at running back by a wide margin. Only 11 receivers have better marks than McCaffrey this season, so he’s been a legit alpha in the passing attack.
McCaffrey has responded with at least six catches and 52 receiving yards in all five games. It hasn’t mattered whether it’s been Brock Purdy or Mac Jones under center; the priority has been to get McCaffrey the ball.
He could be an even bigger focal point in this matchup. The Buccaneers have been stout against the run this season, so the 49ers could use short passes to their RB as a replacement for the run game.
Add it all up, and this number feels too low.
Where to play: Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards – Higher Than 48.5 | Underdog
