The stage is almost set for the National League! We’re here to share our NLCS Game 1 prediction for the Brewers vs Dodgers tonight!
The defending champion Dodgers are rolling into Milwaukee as road favorites despite getting swept 6-0 in the regular season. That’s not a typo.
Los Angeles sits at about -150 on the moneyline despite the Brewers owning baseball’s best record (97-65) and home-field advantage throughout.
Best DFS Apps in All States
Brewers vs Dodgers Tonight – October 13
The oddsmakers are banking on one simple fact—Blake Snell never faced Milwaukee during that July beatdown because he was on the IL. And the version of Snell that showed up for October? Absolutely unreal.
We’re talking 13 innings of 2-run ball across two playoff starts with 18 strikeouts. The two-time Cy Young winner is dealing video game numbers when it matters most.
Snell’s October dominance isn’t some small sample size fluke.
His arsenal is firing on all cylinders: 95 mph four-seamer with elite spin, a devastating slider opponents can’t touch, and a curveball that had hitters batting .132 against it last year. First time through the order, he’s a buzzsaw—opponents slashing just .165 with a .484 OPS.
But here’s where it gets interesting. Milwaukee posts the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball and led the NL with a .332 OBP. They’re not trying to launch dingers (just 166 homers, 22nd in MLB).
They’re woodpeckers, man—pecking away, working counts, grinding at-bats until you make a mistake. That’s a terrible matchup for Snell’s 9.5% walk rate, which sits in the 27th percentile.
The atmosphere at American Family Field is going to be electric—41,900 fans packed into a closed-roof cauldron with speakers “turned up to 11.”
The home team won every game in the Brewers-Cubs NLDS. Milwaukee’s riding an 11-game (home) winning streak and just broke a six-year pattern of postseason disappointment. That’s a tough environment for any road team, even defending champs.
Brewers Preview
The Brewers counter with their creative bullpen game. Manager Pat Murphy is expected to use Quinn Priester in a bulk role after an opener.
Priester dominated these same Dodgers in July with 6 innings and 10 strikeouts, riding a sinker-heavy approach (and a very high ground-ball rate) that keeps the ball in the park.
Yeah, he got shelled in NLDS Game 3, but he threw only 39 pitches and should be fully fresh.
Behind him? Milwaukee’s bullpen is legit—3.63 ERA during the regular season, third in the NL—and they just executed a perfect Game 5 blueprint against the Cubs with 9 innings of 1-run ball by committee.
Closer Abner Uribe saved that game on just 22 pitches. Trevor Megill looked electric as the possible opener. Jacob Misiorowski threw 31 pitches over 100 mph in one NLDS appearance—the most by any pitcher in a postseason game since they started tracking velocity.
Jackson Chourio has been unreal, slashing .389/.421/.667 in his first postseason despite playing through a hamstring injury.
He became the youngest player in MLB history with 3 homers in his first 5 playoff games. In NLDS Game 1, he was the first player ever to record 3 hits in the first two innings of a playoff game.
William Contreras has been Chourio’s wingman, hitting .300 with 2 tie-breaking homers. Brice Turang delivered the crucial insurance run in Game 5. This offense doesn’t blow you away with power, but they capitalize on mistakes and grind you down.
Dodgers Preview
Shohei Ohtani is hitting .056 (1-for-18) with 9 strikeouts since his two-homer Wild Card opener. That’s $700 million worth of struggles right there.
The good news? Milwaukee’s going with right-handed arms tonight, and Ohtani posted an ISO approaching .400 against righties this season (40 of 55 homers). He’s also 11-for-33 with 6 bombs against Brewers relievers in his career. One good swing could unlock everything.
While Ohtani’s been ice cold, Mookie Betts is scorching at .385 this postseason with extra-base hits in nearly every game. Since August 5, he’s slashing .352/.440/.578 with 7 homers.
Freddie Freeman brings World Series MVP credibility and just had extra rest for that ankle. If both these guys stay hot and Ohtani breaks out tonight, Milwaukee’s bullpen strategy faces impossible decisions.
The Dodgers’ playoff rotation has been elite, posting a 2.02 ERA across 35.2 innings with opponents hitting .160.
NLCS Game 1 Prediction: Betting Picks
I find myself drawn to the road favorite here. Snell’s October dominance, the Dodgers’ championship experience, and their desperation to grab Game 1 outweigh Milwaukee’s home-field advantage and regular-season success.
I also don’t mind some Mookie Betts hitting props against (likely) a soft-throwing Priester.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline
