Betting Thursday Night Football: Best Puka Nacua Prop Bets vs Seahawks (12/18)

If you’re hunting for a Thursday Night Football prop that screams value, look no further than Puka Nacua’s receiving yards line. The Rams’ WR1 is averaging 105.2 yards per game in 2025, commands a ridiculous 29% target share and 31% air yard share in Sean McVay’s offense, and tonight he gets the ultimate boost: Davante Adams is DOUBTFUL with a hamstring injury.

That means Nacua isn’t just the Rams’ primary weapon—he’s the only elite weapon Matthew Stafford will trust in a must-win divisional battle at Lumen Field. Let’s talk about tonight’s matchup vs. Seattle.

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Puka Nacua Player Props Today (Dec. 18)

The Rams’ stud has 1,367 receiving yards in 13 games — that’s the headline stat. Nacua sits 6th in the NFL in receiving yards and has been Matthew Stafford’s security blanket all season long. Here’s what makes him different from your typical WR1:

• Target share: 29% of all Rams targets go to Nacua
• Air yard share: 31% of Matt Stafford’s downfield attempts are designed for Nacua
• Yards per reception: 13.4 YPR (elite efficiency)
• Games with 100+ yards: 8 of 13 games (61.5% hit rate)

When Adams is healthy, Nacua still dominates. When Adams is out, Nacua becomes the undisputed alpha in this offense. Tonight, with Adams doubtful, expect Nacua to see 10-12 targets minimum.

Puka Nacua Game Log

Let’s talk recent form, because this is where Nacua separates himself from the pack:

• Dec 14 vs Lions (HOME): 9 receptions, 181 yards, 39-yard long
• Dec 7 @ Cardinals (ROAD): 7 receptions, 167 yards, 2 TDs, 32-yard long
• Nov 30 @ Panthers (ROAD): 6 receptions, 72 yards (only “down” game)
• Nov 23 vs Buccaneers (HOME): 7 receptions, 97 yards
• Nov 16 vs Seahawks (HOME): 7 receptions, 75 yards (tonight’s opponent!)

In the last five games, Nacua is averaging 118.4 yards per game. That’s not sustainable for most receivers, but Nacua’s not most receivers. He’s operating in McVay’s system with Stafford—one of the most efficient QB-WR combos in the league—and he’s peaking at the perfect time.

Puka Nacua vs Seahawks: Career History Shows

Here’s the critical piece: Nacua has faced the Seahawks four times in his career (including playoffs), and the volume is always there:

• Sept 10, 2023 @ SEA: 10 receptions, 119 yards (15 targets)
• Nov 19, 2023 vs SEA: 5 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD (7 targets)
• Nov 3, 2024 @ SEA: 1 reception, 11 yards (4 targets) — injury-shortened game
• Nov 16, 2025 vs SEA: 7 receptions, 75 yards (8 targets)
• Career totals vs Seattle: 23 receptions, 275 yards, 1 TD on 34 targets

The pattern is clear. When Nacua is healthy and plays a full game against Seattle, he produces. In the three games where he wasn’t dealing with injury, he’s averaging 88 yards per game with consistent volume. Tonight, with Adams out, that volume could explode.

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Tonight’s Matchup: Why Seattle’s Defense is Vulnerable

Seattle’s defense gets credit for being solid—they rank 2nd in points allowed per game (17.3) and 8th in pass defense (246.3 yards allowed per game). But here’s what the stats don’t tell you:

Opponent passing yards allowed per game: 212.9 yards (this is slightly misleading because teams have run on Seattle more than passed)

BUT—and this is critical—Seattle’s secondary isn’t dominant in coverage. They’re disciplined and well-coached, but they don’t have lockdown corners who can erase elite WR1s in man coverage. Seattle plays a lot of zone coverage, which is exactly what Nacua exploits. The Seahawks play the 6th-highest amount of zone coverage in the NFL (via Fantasy Points).

Nacua operates primarily out of the slot and on intermediate crossers—routes designed to attack soft spots in zone coverage. Seattle’s defense is built to prevent explosive plays, but Nacua doesn’t need explosives. He needs volume and intermediate targets, which Stafford will provide all night long.

Puka Nacua Best Prop Today

This is the real story tonight. Davante Adams is DOUBTFUL with a right hamstring injury. He didn’t practice all week and is listed as “almost certainly” going to miss the game per Ian Rapoport.

When Stafford needs to lean on Nacua, Nacua delivers. Tonight, with Adams out, Stafford has no choice but to feed Nacua early and often.

The weather might be a bit crazy, but Stafford has a rocket arm, and Nacua can make noise in short routes over the middle.

• PLAYER PROP PICK: Puka Nacua Higher Than 16.55 Fantasy Points
• PLAYER PROP PICK: Puka Nacua Higher Than 91.5 Receiving Yards

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Matthew Stafford LAR QB LAR @ SEA Today 47m	o234.5 -112 u234.5 -112	o230.5 -137 u230.5 -137	o232.5 -112 u232.5 -112	o229.5 -153 u229.5 -107	o237.5 -115 u237.5 -115	o233.5 -111 u233.5 -121	o230.5 -115 u230.5 -115	o232.5 -137 u232.5 -137	-	-
Sam Darnold SEA QB LAR @ SEA Today 47m	o227.5 -111 u227.5 -113	o225.5 -137 u225.5 -137	o223.5 -112 u223.5 -112	o229.5 -123 u229.5 -133	o227.5 -115 u227.5 -115	o225.5 -111 u225.5 -121	o220.5 -120 u220.5 -110	o225.5 -137 u225.5 -137	-	-
Jalen Hurts PHI QB PHI @ WAS Dec 20 5:00 PM ET	o218.5 -111 u218.5 -113	o217.5 -137 u217.5 -137	o217.5 -114 u217.5 -114	o219.5 -128 u219.5 -128	o217.5 -115 u217.5 -115	o217.5 -115 u217.5 -114	o215.5 -115 u215.5 -115	o217.5 -137 u217.5 -137	-	-
Marcus Mariota WAS QB PHI @ WAS Dec 20 5:00 PM ET	o201.5 -112 u201.5 -112	o203.5 -137 u203.5 -137	o202.5 -114 u202.5 -114	o208.5 -116 u208.5 -140	o203.5 -115 u203.5 -118	o201.5 -114 u201.5 -115	o200.5 -110 u200.5 -120	o205.5 -137 u205.5 -137	-	-
Caleb Williams CHI QB GB @ CHI Dec 20 8:20 PM ET	o213.5 -113 u213.5 -111	o207.5 -137 u207.5 -137	o212.5 -114 u212.5 -114	o216.5 -119 u216.5 -138	o207.5 -115 u207.5 -115	o211.5 -114 u211.5 -117	o210.5 -115 u210.5 -115	o212.5 -137 u212.5 -137	-	-
Jordan Love GB QB GB @ CHI Dec 20 8:20 PM ET	o233.5 -112 u233.5 -112	o229.5 -137 u229.5 -137	o235.5 -114 u235.5 -114	o238.5 -117 u238.5 -138	o229.5 -115 u229.5 -115	o232.5 -115 u232.5 -114	o230.5 -120 u230.5 -110	o235.5 -137 u235.5 -137	-	-
Baker Mayfield TB QB TB @ CAR Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o227.5 -113 u227.5 -111	o228.5 -137 u228.5 -137	o228.5 -114 u228.5 -114	o228.5 -131 u228.5 -125	o228.5 -115 u228.5 -115	o228.5 -114 u228.5 -117	o225.5 -120 u225.5 -110	o230.5 -137 u230.5 -137	-	-
Brady Cook NYJ QB NYJ @ NO Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o173.5 -112 u173.5 -112	o170.5 -137 u170.5 -137	o169.5 -114 u169.5 -114	o166.5 -133 u166.5 -123	o171.5 -115 u171.5 -115	o171.5 -114 u171.5 -117	o170.5 -110 u170.5 -120	o170.5 -137 u170.5 -137	-	-
Bryce Young CAR QB TB @ CAR Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o206.5 -111 u206.5 -113	o207.5 -137 u207.5 -137	o204.5 -114 u204.5 -114	o206.5 -126 u206.5 -129	o206.5 -115 u206.5 -115	o205.5 -115 u205.5 -114	o200.5 -115 u200.5 -115	o207.5 -137 u207.5 -137	-	-
Cameron Ward TEN QB KC @ TEN Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o179.5 -113 u179.5 -111	o180.5 -137 u180.5 -137	o179.5 -114 u179.5 -114	o181.5 -128 u181.5 -128	o180.5 -115 u180.5 -115	o179.5 -118 u179.5 -113	o175.5 -120 u175.5 -110	o179.5 -137 u179.5 -137	-	-
Dak Prescott DAL QB LAC @ DAL Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o250.5 -113 u250.5 -111	o250.5 -137 u250.5 -137	o246.5 -114 u246.5 -114	o245.5 -147 u245.5 -112	o253.5 -115 u253.5 -115	o249.5 -114 u249.5 -115	o245.5 -120 u245.5 -110	o249.5 -137 u249.5 -137	-	-
Gardner Minshew KC QB KC @ TEN Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o212.5 -111 u212.5 -113	o212.5 -137 u212.5 -137	o212.5 -114 u212.5 -114	o213.5 -125 u213.5 -131	o221.5 -115 u221.5 -115	o214.5 -115 u214.5 -115	o210.5 -110 u210.5 -120	o212.5 -137 u212.5 -137	-	-
Jaxson Dart NYG QB MIN @ NYG Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o196.5 -111 u196.5 -113	o197.5 -137 u197.5 -137	o195.5 -114 u195.5 -114	o195.5 -128 u195.5 -128	o199.5 -115 u199.5 -115	o196.5 -110 u196.5 -125	o190.5 -120 u190.5 -110	o197.5 -137 u197.5 -137	-	-
J.J. McCarthy MIN QB MIN @ NYG Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o187.5 -111 u187.5 -113	o189.5 -137 u189.5 -137	o187.5 -114 u187.5 -114	o188.5 -128 u188.5 -128	o187.5 -115 u187.5 -115	o187.5 -114 u187.5 -115	o185.5 -115 u185.5 -115	o188.5 -137 u188.5 -137	-	-
Joe Burrow CIN QB CIN @ MIA Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o256.5 -111 u256.5 -113	o258.5 -137 u258.5 -137	o258.5 -114 u258.5 -114	o255.5 -138 u255.5 -119	o258.5 -115 u258.5 -115	o258.5 -115 u258.5 -114	o255.5 -110 u255.5 -120	o258.5 -137 u258.5 -137	-	-
Josh Allen BUF QB BUF @ CLE Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o210.5 -113 u210.5 -111	o216.5 -137 u216.5 -137	o213.5 -114 u213.5 -114	o216.5 -120 u216.5 -135	o208.5 -115 u208.5 -115	o210.5 -115 u210.5 -114	o205.5 -120 u205.5 -110	o210.5 -137 u210.5 -137	-	-
Justin Herbert LAC QB LAC @ DAL Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o241.5 -113 u241.5 -111	o245.5 -137 u245.5 -137	o247.5 -114 u247.5 -114	o247.5 -129 u247.5 -126	o240.5 -115 u240.5 -115	o244.5 -112 u244.5 -120	o245.5 -115 u245.5 -115	o245.5 -137 u245.5 -137	-	-
Quinn Ewers MIA QB CIN @ MIA Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o183.5 -112 u183.5 -112	o185.5 -137 u185.5 -137	o179.5 -114 u179.5 -114	o179.5 -144 u179.5 -113	o192.5 -115 u192.5 -115	o183.5 -108 u183.5 -125	-	o185.5 -137 u185.5 -137	-	-
Shedeur Sanders CLE QB BUF @ CLE Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o177.5 -112 u177.5 -112	o181.5 -137 u181.5 -137	o177.5 -114 u177.5 -114	o179.5 -121 u179.5 -133	o181.5 -115 u181.5 -115	o178.5 -110 u178.5 -125	o180.5 -110 u180.5 -120	o181.5 -137 u181.5 -137	-	-
Tua Tagovailoa MIA QB CIN @ MIA Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o218.5 -112 u218.5 -112	o219.5 -137 u219.5 -137	o218.5 -114 u218.5 -114	o218.5 -125 u218.5 -131	o188.5 -115 u188.5 -115	o218.5 -115 u218.5 -115	o220.5 -110 u220.5 -120	o219.5 -137 u219.5 -137	-	-
Tyler Shough NO QB NYJ @ NO Dec 21 1:00 PM ET	o215.5 -112 u215.5 -113	o217.5 -137 u217.5 -137	o217.5 -114 u217.5 -114	o218.5 -119 u218.5 -138	o210.5 -115 u210.5 -115	o215.5 -114 u215.5 -117	o215.5 -115 u215.5 -115	o210.5 -137 u210.5 -137	-	-
Bo Nix DEN QB JAX @ DEN Dec 21 4:05 PM ET	o238.5 -113 u238.5 -111	o235.5 -137 u235.5 -137	o236.5 -114 u236.5 -114	o236.5 -129 u236.5 -126	o235.5 -115 u235.5 -115	o236.5 -125 u236.5 -108	o235.5 -120 u235.5 -110	o236.5 -137 u236.5 -137	-	-
Jacoby Brissett ARI QB ATL @ ARI Dec 21 4:05 PM ET	o253.5 -112 u253.5 -112	o249.5 -137 u249.5 -137	o249.5 -114 u249.5 -114	o248.5 -140 u248.5 -117	o249.5 -115 u249.5 -115	o250.5 -125 u250.5 -108	o250.5 -115 u250.5 -115	o253.5 -137 u253.5 -137	-	-
Kirk Cousins ATL QB ATL @ ARI Dec 21 4:05 PM ET	o227.5 -111 u227.5 -113	o228.5 -137 u228.5 -137	o227.5 -114 u227.5 -114	o225.5 -131 u225.5 -125	o228.5 -115 u228.5 -115	o227.5 -114 u227.5 -115	o225.5 -110 u225.5 -120	o228.5 -137 u228.5 -137	-	-
Trevor Lawrence JAX QB JAX @ DEN Dec 21 4:05 PM ET	o222.5 -112 u222.5 -112	o221.5 -137 u221.5 -137	o223.5 -114 u223.5 -114	o226.5 -125 u226.5 -131	o221.5 -115 u221.5 -115	o222.5 -114 u222.5 -115	o220.5 -110 u220.5 -120	o222.5 -137 u222.5 -137	-	-
Aaron Rodgers PIT QB PIT @ DET Dec 21 4:25 PM ET	o228.5 -113 u228.5 -111	o228.5 -137 u228.5 -137	o230.5 -114 u230.5 -114	o225.5 -129 u225.5 -126	o227.5 -115 u227.5 -115	o230.5 -115 u230.5 -114	o230.5 -110 u230.5 -120	o228.5 -137 u228.5 -137	-	-
C.J. Stroud HOU QB LV @ HOU Dec 21 4:25 PM ET	o225.5 -111 u225.5 -113	o227.5 -137 u227.5 -137	o227.5 -114 u227.5 -114	o231.5 -116 u231.5 -140	o220.5 -115 u220.5 -115	o224.5 -118 u224.5 -113	o220.5 -120 u220.5 -110	o227.5 -137 u227.5 -137	-	-
Geno Smith LV QB LV @ HOU Dec 21 4:25 PM ET	o194.5 -112 u194.5 -112	o195.5 -137 u195.5 -137	o196.5 -114 u196.5 -114	o197.5 -116 u197.5 -140	o189.5 -115 u189.5 -115	o194.5 -111 u194.5 -121	o190.5 -115 u190.5 -115	o196.5 -137 u196.5 -137	-	-
Jared Goff DET QB PIT @ DET Dec 21 4:25 PM ET	o263.5 -113 u263.5 -111	o265.5 -137 u265.5 -137	o264.5 -114 u264.5 -114	o261.5 -131 u261.5 -125	o273.5 -115 u273.5 -115	o267.5 -114 u267.5 -115	o260.5 -110 u260.5 -120	o264.5 -137 u264.5 -137	-	-
Drake Maye NE QB NE @ BAL Dec 21 8:20 PM ET	o242.5 -113 u242.5 -111	o238.5 -137 u238.5 -137	o237.5 -114 u237.5 -114	o240.5 -129 u240.5 -125	o236.5 -115 u236.5 -115	o237.5 -114 u237.5 -115	o235.5 -115 u235.5 -115	o239.5 -137 u239.5 -137	-	-
Lamar Jackson BAL QB NE @ BAL Dec 21 8:20 PM ET	o211.5 -112 u211.5 -112	o206.5 -137 u206.5 -137	o212.5 -114 u212.5 -114	o212.5 -128 u212.5 -128	o206.5 -115 u206.5 -115	o210.5 -114 u210.5 -115	o210.5 -115 u210.5 -115	o206.5 -137 u206.5 -137	-	-
Brock Purdy SF QB SF @ IND Dec 22 8:15 PM ET	o246.5 -113 u246.5 -111	o245.5 -137 u245.5 -137	o243.5 -114 u243.5 -114	o242.5 -142 u242.5 -114	o245.5 -115 u245.5 -115	o244.5 -115 u244.5 -115	o240.5 -120 u240.5 -110	o245.5 -137 u245.5 -137	-	-
Philip Rivers IND QB SF @ IND Dec 22 8:15 PM ET	o157.5 -113 u157.5 -112	o155.5 -137 u155.5 -137	o154.5 -114 u154.5 -114	o154.5 -129 u154.5 -126	o163.5 -115 u163.5 -115	o155.5 -120 u155.5 -112	o155.5 -105 u155.5 -125	o157.5 -137 u157.5 -137	-	-

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Last updated: Dec 18, 2025 7:27 PM | Showing 10 of 33 props

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