We asked our Props analyst, Justin Bales, to come up with his best CFB ladder bet for Week 1’s Saturday slate. If you’re not familiar with this kind of bet, don’t worry, we’ll break it down.
A ladder bet is essentially betting on a prop at multiple lines with the odds getting progressively larger the further up the ladder you go.
We’ve done the research for you here and below we’ll dive into all of the rationale for this best CFB ladder bet for Week 1.
Parker Jenkins Rushing Yards Ladder
Jenkins found some success as a freshman, leading the Houston Cougars with 603 yards and 6 touchdowns on 116 carries. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry, and 66.3% of his yards came after contact in 2023. He flashed some upside, but we didn’t see the game-breaking upside we know he possesses.
Jenkins recorded double-digit carries in only four games last season. He posted 56+ rushing yards in each of those games, averaging 71.8 yards on 14.0 carries per game in those contests. He also posted 104 yards on 19 carries, which was his most involved game as a freshman.
The big key is that this rushing total is indicative of the last coaching staff. This will be the first season under head coach Willie Fritz, who is coming over from Tulane. We’ve consistently seen Fritz’s running backs dominate, as Makhi Hughes and Tyjae Spears combined for nearly 3,000 rushing yards over the last two seasons.
Houston ran an air raid style of offense last season, but that won’t be the case in 2024. We know that Fritz is going to want to establish the run, and it’s easy to make the case that Jenkins is their best offensive weapon.
The sophomore running back notably recorded several breakaway runs in Houston’s spring game. The most impressive was a 60-yard touchdown, which flashed more upside than any individual touch in 2023.
Jenkins gets an interesting matchup against UNLV this week. They aren’t likely to feature one of the worst run defenses in the NCAA, but they also aren’t going to be a defense to avoid. Houston’s a small favorite in this game as well, meaning they could be running the clock out late.
We’re getting +950 odds on 110+ rushing yards, and there’s a very real scenario where Jenkins finds 20+ carries in this game. I believe this will be the last week we get these types of odds.
Where to Bet: Parker Jenkins 60+ rushing yards (-105) through 110+ rushing yards (+950) | DraftKings Sportsbook
NCAA Football Prop Betting Tips
Even though betting on NCAA football props isn’t extremely difficult to do, it still isn’t one of the easiest betting types to cash in. There are some NCAA football prop betting tips that can help you be more successful, and three of those are outlined and discussed below.
Check For Injuries
One of the first things you will want to look at is the injury report. You want to look for players that might be sidelined by an injury, as that could affect how the prop bet plays out. Betting sites will be looking for this information as well, and this is where you could see some movement in the NCAA football prop betting odds.
Find The Value
As discussed above, sportsbooks continue to find and offer new college football prop betting markets. Betting sites want your action, and they will entice you to make a play by adding new props to the site.
While you should always be looking for prop bets that you can win, you also need to be looking for NCAA football prop bets that have some value. This means that you should be trying to identify a prop bet that has a good chance to cash, not necessarily just browsing for the “big games” or your favorite team.
You might have to dig deep and look really hard to find the most valuable NCAA football prop bet to make, but there will be some that are available to you. If you don’t think that a bet is valuable enough to make, then you simply need to wait for the next weekend and make a wager at that time.
