Justin Bales unveils his top Bills vs. Dolphins SGP ahead of this Thursday Night Football matchup.
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Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins SGP
We’re getting great odds on Allen, who is set at 1.5 passing touchdowns in this game. We’re getting slightly boosted odds on the over, as he’s projected for the under, although it doesn’t make much sense.
Allen is the focal point of the Buffalo offense, and that’s going to be the case again in 2024. Although he only had 4 red zone pass attempts last week, he walked with a pair of passing touchdowns. He also ranked 8th in the NFL with 68 red zone attempts last season.
This game has odds set at even for a total of 5.5 touchdowns to be scored. The Buffalo Bills are small underdogs, so it is fair to suggest they may only score two touchdowns tonight, although that’s far from certain. Even if that’s the case, both can come from Allen’s arm, as he’s thrown 2+ touchdowns in each of his 12 career games against the Miami Dolphins.
I’m pairing Allen [kind of] with Shakir because I want the slot yards for Buffalo in this game. Shakir saw 21 routes with over 80% of them coming from the slot. He’s their top slot receiving with Dalton Kincaid also running plenty of his routes from the slot.
We aren’t likely going to see any Buffalo receiver peppered with targets like Stefon Diggs this season, but there will be more than enough to go around, specifically at a low number like this. Shakir turned 3 targets into 42 yards and 1 touchdown last week.
One of the benefits [and downfalls depending on how you look at it] is that Shakir gets “easy” targets. He had an aDOT of only 3.7 last week without seeing a target 10+ yards down the field. We know that isn’t going to be the case the entire season, as he was an outstanding deep threat when targeted in 2023.
I also want Shakir so I can avoid the outside cornerbacks for Miami. I much prefer to attack Kader Kohou than Jalen Ramsey or Kendell Fuller.
I’m getting who I believe is currently the most talented and well-polished receiver for Buffalo in the best matchup tonight.
On the other side, Hill is an unstoppable force. He posted 7 receptions for 130 yards and 1 touchdown on 12 targets in the first game of the season. The most important part of this is that he ran a team-high 17 routes from the slot.
When considering matchups, I want to attack Cam Lewis, and the easiest way to do that this week will be with Hill. Granted, they’re going to send extra bodies at him, but I don’t believe that’s going to matter all that much.
We saw Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane combine for 315 of Miami’s 338 receiving yards last week, and I’m fully expecting something similar this week.
It is important to note that Raheem Mostert’s already been ruled out, leaving Achane to play more running back. He’s technically injured, but I don’t believe Miami would push him for this game if he wasn’t essentially healthy.
Achane is still going to have a passing game role, but it may be slightly smaller, depending on how they use Jeff Wilson Jr. and Jaylen Wright. Regardless, it shouldn’t matter too much for Hill, who is going to get his opportunities regardless of who else is on the field.
This is an extremely high number, but Miami will continue to force-feed their top option, giving him ample opportunities to find success.
Where to Play:
Josh Allen o1.5 passing touchdowns
Khalil Shakir o40.5 receiving yards
Tyreek Hill o95.5 receiving yards