Looking for the best 49ers vs. Jets Picks for Monday Night Football? You’ve come to the right place.
We’ll break down our best picks from Sleeper Fantasy for this powerhouse Week 1 matchup.
Best 49ers vs. Jets Picks
Josh Shepardson breaks down his top 49ers vs. Jets Picks for this Monday Night Football matchup.
Breece Hall “More” Than 3.5 Receptions (1.49x)
Breece Hall should be one of the primary beneficiaries of Aaron Rodgers returning after his remarkably short first season on the Jets. Rodgers is a massive upgrade over the horrendous collection of quarterbacks the Jets trotted out in Hall’s first two campaigns in the NFL. Even if Rodgers is just an average quarterback and can’t recapture his MVP form, the Jets should have more success moving the ball.
In addition, Rodgers has historically loved throwing to his running backs. According to Pro Football Reference, Aaron Jones averaged 3.5 receptions per game in 2021 and 3.5 in 2022. Jones’s pass-catching work was more impressive when accounting for his playing time and per-route rates. According to FantasyPros, Jones had a 59% snap share in 2021 and 58% in 2022. Furthermore, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Jones was targeted on 21.6% of his routes in 2021 and 22.9% in 2022.
Last year, Hall had a 61% snap share, held back by early-season snap shares of 31%, 34%, 49%, and 52% in his first four contests while he worked his way back from a torn ACL. In the final three weeks of last year, Hall had snap shares of 77%, 71%, and 89%. Hall also has excellent receiving chops, averaging 4.5 receptions per game and earning a target on 26.8% of his routes last season.
Finally, Hall’s matchup is stellar this week. According to The 33rd Team, the 49ers were tied for the fifth-most receptions allowed to running backs, ceding 5.3 per game to them. As a result, Hall is likely to exceed 3.5 receptions on Monday night.
Where to play: Breece Hall More Than 3.5 Receptions | 1.49x at Sleeper Fantasy
Deebo Samuel “Less” Than 4.5 Receptions (1.68x)
No one should wish injuries on players, yet they’re part of the violent game of football and a fringe benefit to betting unders. Even if a player is only sidelined for a brief portion of a game, it could be enough to send them under their player prop. Deebo Samuel also isn’t a stranger to bumps, bruises, and injuries. Regardless, projecting an injury would be absurd and isn’t the primary reason for selecting his under for receptions at Sleeper.
Instead, a challenging matchup is the primary reason for this selection. According to FantasyPoints Data Suite, the Jets had the eighth-highest man-coverage rate (30.7%) last season. Brandon Aiyuk is a markedly better receiver against man coverage than Samuel. Per PFF, Aiyuk earned 24.8% of his targets and had 2.37 Y/RR against man coverage in 2022, followed up by 25.4% and 3.24 Y/RR in 2023. Comparatively, Samuel had only 16.5% of his targets and 1.52 Y/RR against man coverage in 2022 and 17.4% and 1.14 Y/RR in 2023.
Gang Green’s defense was also a nightmare matchup for wideouts last year. According to The 33rd Team, the Jets allowed the fewest receptions (150) to wide receivers last season. Finally, Samuel averaged 4.1 receptions per game last year, falling short of 4.5 receptions 11 times in 18 games. Unders aren’t fun bets, but cashing Sleeper slips is fun. Deebo’s under for 4.5 receptions is an inviting pick.
Where to play: Deebo Samuel Less Than 4.5 Receptions | 1.68x at Sleeper Fantasy