Which Major League Baseball teams are best positioned for a World Series run?
Which clubs are primed to catch fire in the regular season’s final week (or in the St. Louis Cardinals’ case, stay absurdly hot) and carry that momentum deep into October?
Props.com analyzes the odds for each contender possibly capturing the National League and American League pennant.
Odds (courtesy of Circa Sports) and records updated as of 9 a.m. ET on Sept. 29.
Houston Astros
Record: 92-65 (1st in AL West)
Seed Projection: No. 2
Pennant Odds: +260
Remaining schedule: 2 games vs. Rays, 3 vs. Athletics
The Astros have been penciled in as AL West champions since the end of July, meaning the club has had plenty of time to prepare for the playoffs, which will start with the enigmatic White Sox in the Divisional Series round.
The betting community also has had time to break down Houston’s title chances from many angles. The team’s core players (Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa) have a ton of postseason experience, as does starting pitcher Zack Greinke. Beyond that, the Astros own the AL’s second-best home record, third-best road mark, and they lead the American League in run differential (plus-206 as of Sept. 28).
They also went 5-2 against the White Sox in the regular season.
Individually, the Astros’ lineup features eight players with an on-base percentage of .340 or higher, and the starting rotation includes five dependable assets, including Greinke, who might also be used in high-leverage relief situations during the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 97-60 (1st in AL East)
Seed Projection: No. 1
Pennant Odds: +310
Remaining schedule: 2 games at Astros, 3 at Yankees
Conventional wisdom suggests the Rays, as the American League’s No. 1 playoff seed, would prefer to avoid facing any of their AL East foes — the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays — in the Divisional Series round.
However, Tampa Bay might be quietly rooting for any of those rivals to advance out of the wild card. That’s because the Rays have a winning record this season against all three clubs. However, they’re 1-6 against the hard-charging Mariners, who now sit just a half-game out of the Wild Card #2 slot.
Of course, there’s a major difference between random regular-season outings and intense postseason pressure. Tampa Bay currently has the AL’s best home record, best road mark and the Junior Circuit’s second-best runs differential behind Houston.
Also, among AL clubs, the Rays’ offense ranks second in runs and RBI output. And while their pitching staff lacks marquee names, it is talented and deep.
Chicago White Sox
Record: 90-68 (1st in AL Central)
Seed Projection: No. 3
Pennant Odds: +310
Remaining schedule: 2 games vs. Reds, 3 vs. Tigers
The White Sox haven’t won a postseason series since capturing the 2005 World Series. Yet, they’re Circa Sports’ second-best betting option for the AL pennant (tied with the Rays, trailing the Astros).
That’s odd, considering Chicago has a 40-41 road record this season and is barely over .500 since the All-Star break (36-33 after the All-Star, as of Sept. 28).
As a counterpoint, at this time last year, the White Sox didn’t have a top-notch bullpen anchored by baseball’s best 1-2 closing duo (Liam Hendriks and Craig Kimbrel) or one of the AL’s deepest starting rotations (featuring Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Carlos Rodon).
The improved pitching complements a White Sox offense which currently ranks second with on-base percentage, fourth in batting average, fourth in OPS rate, fifth in runs, and fifth in RBI among American League clubs.
New York Yankees
Record: 90-67 (2nd in AL East)
Seed Projection: No. 4 (wild card #1)
Pennant Odds: +515
Remaining schedule: 2 games at Blue Jays, 3 vs. Rays
The Yankees now have the inside track to hosting next week’s AL Wild Card Game, thanks to getting hot at the absolute right time (seven consecutive victories as of Sept. 28). After breaking free from the five-team wild-card logjam, New York heads into Wednesday leading Boston by 2 games, Seattle by 2.5, and Toronto by 3.
Of course, Yankees fans are seldom content with merely making the playoffs. With stars like Gerrit Cole (AL Cy Young contender), Giancarlo Stanton, and Aaron Judge dotting the roster, expectations will be high for New York to advance through the wild card, then topple No. 1 seed Tampa Bay in the ALDS.
Are those expectations reasonable? On the plus side, closer Aroldis Chapman has surrendered just one run in his last nine appearances, and Cole will be on proper rest to start the Wild Card Game. On the downside, the Rays own a 9-7 seasonal edge over the Yankees, and likely wouldn’t encounter Cole until Game 3 of the ALDS.
Boston Red Sox
Record: 88-69 (2nd in AL East)
Seed Projection: No. 5 (wild card #2)
Pennant Odds: +865
Remaining schedule: 2 games at Orioles, 3 at Nationals
The Red Sox, losers of four straight games, have chosen the wrong time to hit the skids.
Last week, Boston was in prime position to snatch the top wild card berth; now, the club is desperately scraping for the last realistic morsel of postseason consideration, as it barely leads the Mariners (half-game) and Blue Jays (1 game) for the AL’s final playoff spot.
The Red Sox have baseball’s easiest schedule during the final week, taking on the porous Orioles and Nationals. However, on Tuesday, Boston wasted a strong start from Chris Sale and lost 4-2 in Baltimore. The Sox likely won’t have their ace back on the mound until Sunday — and by then, it could be too late.
Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 87-70 (4th in AL East)
Seed Projection: Missing the postseason
Pennant Odds: +1225
Remaining schedule: 2 games vs. Yankees, 3 vs. Orioles
The Blue Jays possess the requisite starting pitching (bolstered by Cy Young favorite Robbie Ray) and offensive punch (featuring Triple Crown candidate Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) to make a deep run in the American League playoffs. Trouble is, they might not get there.
After being in decent shape as recently as a week ago, Toronto has lost four of its last six and now must jump Seattle and Boston to get to the wild card No. 2 spot. That’s no easy feat, considering the Jays have two games remaining against the suddenly hot Yankees, who are also fighting for their playoff lives.
Seattle Mariners
Record: 88-70 (2nd in AL West)
Seed Projection: Missing the postseason
Pennant Odds: +3500
Remaining schedule: 1 game vs. Athletics, 3 vs. Angels
On the heels of a Sept. 18 blowout loss to the Kansas City Royals, the Mariners’ pennant odds at Circa were in the range of +75000. The rationale at the time: Seattle probably would need to win its remaining games just to have a mathematical chance of catching the Red Sox, Yankees or Blue Jays in the Wild Card standings.
Fast forward to the present: Seattle has won nine of its last 10 games, and stands just a half-game behind Boston for the second wild card.
With four games left on the docket, the Mariners’ dream of busting their 20-year postseason drought is be alive and well … for now.
