The AFC North is an annual bloodbath with a lack of gimme wins within the division. Last year, three teams from the AFC North reached the postseason, and all four clubs had a winning record.
The Cleveland Browns are the only team in the division that hasn’t won an AFC North title since 2014. The Pittsburgh Steelers (2014, 2016, 2017, and 2020), Cincinnati Bengals (2015, 2021, and 2022), and Baltimore Ravens (2018, 2019, and 2023) have each won the division at least three times in the past decade. Can the Ravens repeat as the AFC North head honcho, or will someone topple them? Let’s dive into the division to see where the betting value lies.
AFC North Division Odds
- Bengals +140
- Ravens +145
- Browns +600
- Steelers +800
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 13.
Baltimore Ravens Odds to Win AFC North: (+140)
The Ravens had a fantastic season last year, capturing the AFC’s No. 1 seed and reaching the AFC Conference Championship Game. Unfortunately, they couldn’t get over the hump against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Chiefs.
Now, they must pay the price for success and having a high-salaried quarterback, the NFL’s reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson. The Ravens made a splash in free agency by signing Derrick Henry, and adding offensive tackle Josh Jones was also noteworthy. Yet, they lost Patrick Queen, Jadeveon Clowney, Geno Stone, and Ronald Darby from their elite defense. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), all four of their departed defenders played over 500 snaps for Baltimore last year.
They also lost starting guards John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler in free agency and traded starting tackle Morgan Moses to the New York Jets. In other words, they’re turning over 60% of their starting offensive line.
While the player losses in the offseason were crucial, they might not have been the most critical loss. Instead, losing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to serve as the new head coach of the Seattle Seahawks could be the most damaging to Baltimore’s 2024 outlook.
According to FTN Fantasy, the Ravens were first in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) last season. In addition, per Pro-Football-Reference, Baltimore had the best point differential (+203) in the NFL. Thus, they have wiggle room to regress and compete for a division title or more.
Cincinnati Bengals Odds to Win AFC North: (+145)
The Bengals were back-to-back AFC North champs in Joe Burrow’s previous two fully healthy seasons, and they reached the Super Bowl in 2021 and the AFC Championship Game in 2022. Yet, last year might have been Zac Taylor’s most impressive as a head coach. First, he worked around Burrow’s early-season calf injury. Then, he guided the team to a 4-3 record in Jake Browning’s seven starts. In addition to Burrow’s injuries, Tee Higgins was also out for five games.
More favorable injury luck would do wonders for the Bengals this season. Like the Ravens, they’ve lost talent in free agency. Yet, they found stellar replacements for their most impactful losses and even poached Stone from Baltimore’s secondary.
Moreover, the Bengals also lost one of their top coordinators to a head coaching vacancy. Their offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan, is now the head coach of the Tennessee Titans. Nevertheless, in theory, his loss shouldn’t hurt as much as Macdonald’s damages Baltimore’s outlook. Taylor’s background was as an offensive coordinator, and he has served as the club’s playcaller. Again, if Burrow and Cincinnati’s top players stay healthy, they’ll be in the mix to win the division and should have even greater aspirations.
Cleveland Browns Odds to Win AFC North: (+600)
The Browns won 11 games last year despite having five quarterbacks start games for them. Jeff Driskel lost a meaningless start in Week 18, and Deshaun Watson, Joe Flacco – fresh off his couch –Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and P.J. Walker each won at least one start. Kevin Stefanski coached his butt off and won the NFL’s Coach of the Year Award for the second time in his career.
The Houston Texans trounced the Browns in the Wild Card Round. Still, the Browns were eighth in total DVOA and had a +34 point differential. Cleveland’s defense was its strength. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they were tied for the fourth-fewest yards per play allowed (4.6), tied for fifth in turnovers forced (28), and tied for 13th in scoring defense (21.3 points per game). The Browns were also second in defense DVOA.
The glass-half-full view was that the Browns went 5-1 in Watson’s six starts. The glass-half-empty view was that Watson was once again dreadful despite his sterling win-loss record, and defenses tend to be less sticky than offenses season over season. The Browns lost Flacco in free agency but added Jameis Winston and Tyler Huntley as backups, providing them insurance if Watson gets hurt. They also traded for Jerry Jeudy to provide Watson with another weapon. Regardless, Cleveland’s quarterback situation is markedly worse than Baltimore’s and Cincinnati’s, putting a lot of pressure on the defense if Watson can’t elevate his play to at least league average.
Pittsburgh Steelers Odds to Win AFC North: (+800)
By now, even the most casual NFL viewer is keenly aware Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 17 years as Pittsburgh’s head coach. It’s an impressive accomplishment, but the Steelers have also won more than 10 games only once since 2018, winning 12 games in 2020.
The Steelers fluked their way into the playoffs by winning a close game against Baltimore’s reserves in a rainy game in Week 18 that was meaningless to the Ravens. Pittsburgh overachieved last season, and they completely overhauled their quarterback room, letting Mason Rudolph leave in free agency, releasing Mitch Trubisky, and trading Kenny Pickett. They’ve replaced the most critical position in the NFL with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, who are hardly an inspiring duo.
If the Steelers are to have another winning season and contend for the playoffs, they’ll likely need to rely on their talented defense and the one-two backfield punch of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Fortunately for the Steelers, they were sixth in defense DVOA last year, and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith loves to establish the run, evidenced by his tenure as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons and when he was the offensive coordinator for the Titans. The recipe might lead to another winning season and a playoff berth. Still, barring unexpectedly good play from Wilson or Fields, it’s unlikely enough to win arguably the best division in the NFL.
AFC North Predictions & Best Bet
The Bengals were the best team in the AFC North in Burrow’s past two healthy seasons, and the nucleus of those teams is mainly intact. The Ravens won’t roll over, but overturning 60% of the offensive line and losing their defensive whiz at defensive coordinator will prove challenging to overcome.
Watson hasn’t resembled a quality NFL starter since before he was suspended, but Cleveland’s defense is a cut above Pittsburgh’s. As a result, I expect the Browns to edge out the Steelers for third place in the AFC North. This isn’t a shoo-in bet by any stretch of the imagination. Nonetheless, it’s logical, and the +800 odds make it worth tying up funds on a futures wager.
Best Bet: AFC North 2024/2025 Exact Order – CIN/BAL/CLE/PIT | +800 at DraftKings Sportsbook
More Division Odds & Predictions
Check out Josh’s predictions from across the other NFL divisions:
