The AFC North is one of only two NFL divisions (along with the AFC West) to have every team at .500 or better heading into NFL Week 9.
Does that mean the AFC North is completely up for grabs as the NFL’s first 18-week/17-game season reaches its midpoint? According to oddsmakers, the answer is “Yes” — but with a caveat. Because as we hit the weekend, one team stands a bit taller than the others in the AFC North betting race — and it’s the franchise that is shepherded by a recent NFL MVP.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, Circa Sports, DraftKings, FanDuel, and TwinSpires, and updated as of 3 p.m. Nov. 5.
Baltimore Ravens (5-2 SU/3-4 ATS)
BetMGM: -150
Circa Sports: -140
DraftKings: -140
FanDuel: -145
TwinSpires: -155
Baltimore has played just one divisional game so far, and it didn’t go well (an ugly 41-17 home loss to the Bengals two weeks ago). Yet despite that result — and despite second-place Cincinnati possessing the head-to-head tiebreaker — bookmakers are confident about the Ravens’ chances of claiming their third AFC North title in four years.
That confidence is likely tied to Baltimore’s upcoming opponents — Minnesota, Miami, Chicago, and Cleveland have a combined 11-20 record. Also, while the Ravens face a season-ending gauntlet of the Packers, Bengals, and Rams, two of those opponents (Green Bay and Los Angeles) visit Baltimore.
There’s another reason oddsmakers are high on the Ravens, and his name is Lamar Jackson, who is 13-4 in his last 17 regular-season games. The dual-threat quarterback leads a ground game that is averaging 149.4 rushing yards per contest, which ranks third in the league.
That average probably will skyrocket in the coming weeks, because Baltimore is set to encounter three of the NFL’s worst rush defenses. The Bears (24th), Vikings (26th), and Packers (29th) rank near the bottom in opponents’ yards per rush, with each surrendering at least 4.5 yards per tote.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-3 SU/4-4 ATS)
BetMGM: +375
Circa Sports: +345
DraftKings: +350
FanDuel: +350
TwinSpires: +400
The Bengals’ desultory loss to the Jets last week — which looks even worse in light of New York’s ugly performance at Indianapolis on Thursday — knocked Cincinnati out of the AFC’s No. 1 spot.
There’s also some ignominious history working against the Bengals : No AFC North champion has lost to the typically awful Jets since the 2014 Steelers. Ugh.
The humiliation at The Meadowlands aside, Cincinnati remains on solid footing in the division race, thanks to a balanced attack. The offense has averaged 35.3 points over the last three games, while the defense ranks in the top 10 in sacks, interceptions, and points allowed (prior to the Jets game, Cincy hadn’t surrendered more than 25 points all season).
The Bengals sport the AFC North’s only 2-0 record in league play, and both wins came on the road (at Pittsburgh in Week 3, at Baltimore in Week 7). So while the sportsbooks favor Baltimore at the moment, the fact is Cincinnati is the only AFC North team that controls its destiny.
Cleveland Browns (4-4 SU/ATS)
BetMGM: +550
Circa Sports: +650
DraftKings: +650
FanDuel: +480
TwinSpires: +600
The Browns’ release of disgruntled wideout Odell Beckham Jr. on Friday made a lot of headlines, but does his loss really diminish Cleveland’s offense? Beckham had averaged only 2.9 catches per game and hadn’t found the end zone all year.
For better or worse, the Browns’ division-winning potential centers around their vaunted rushing attack (NFL-best 161.1 yards per game) and their pass rush (ranked third in sacks) operating at peak capacity — especially as the weather turns grim during November, December, and January games.
Working in Cleveland’s favor: Despite last Sunday’s upset loss to Pittsburgh, it still has five divisional matchups on the docket. Also, of the four non-AFC North games left on the schedule (Lions, Patriots, Raiders, Packers), the Browns might only be underdogs against Green Bay (Christmas Day at Lambeau Field).
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3 SU/3-4 ATS)
BetMGM: +650
Circa Sports: +650
DraftKings: +650
FanDuel: +650
TwinSpires: +650
This time last year, the Steelers were riding high at 8-0 (on the way to 11-0) and seemingly on a path to Super Bowl contention. However, since then, Pittsburgh is 5-8, including the one-and-done playoff loss to the Browns in January.
So even though the Steelers enter Week 9 having won three in a row, oddsmakers don’t have a lot of faith in a squad that ranks among the NFL’s bottom 10 in total offense (24th), scoring offense (26th), and rushing offense (28th). Also, the Steel Curtain defense hasn’t been as sturdy as in past years, having collected only six turnovers while ranking outside the top 10 in sacks.
Then there’s the schedule: In addition to four more divisional matchups, the Steelers are on the hook for AFC West crossover games against the high-powered Chargers (Week 11) and Chiefs (Week 16). Throw in an aging Ben Roethlisberger under center, and it’s difficult to envision Pittsburgh reaching the 11 or 12 wins that probably will be required to claim the division crown.
