The schedule tells us there are only two NFL playoff games to wager on this week. But we know there are more than two betting opportunities — way more!
Odds boards from coast to coast are overflowing with NFL conference championship game props. We already gave you several of our favorite player prop bets for the AFC Championship Game and NFC Championship Game. Now we reveal our top five game-specific prop bets for each contest, starting with the Bengals vs. Chiefs showdown in Kansas City.
Odds via DraftKings and FanDuel and updated as of 7 p.m. ET on Jan. 28.
Cincinnati Bengals Vs Kansas City Chiefs: First Quarter
The prop: 10 Total Combined Points
The odds: Over -120/Under +100
Kansas City and Cincinnati each have played one first-quarter Under and one first-quarter Over in the postseason. But when these squads squared off in Ohio back on Jan. 2, the Chiefs held a 14-7 lead through the first 15 minutes of play.
Including that contest, six of Kansas City’s last nine games have featured more than 10 opening-quarter points (and one of the exceptions — a Week 5 home game against Denver — saw the Chiefs leading 10-0 after the first).
Given their offensive firepower, it’s probably not shocking to hear that the Chiefs are averaging 7.2 first-quarter points per game, which is tied with Dallas for tops in the NFL (playoffs included). At home, Kansas City is putting up 6.7 ppg (which ranks third).
Now for the “but” (and it’s a significant one): Cincinnati is netting just 4.4 first-quarter points per outing, which ranks 14th — and that number dips all the way to 3.2 ppg on the road (18th). And while the Chiefs and Bills each picked up first-quarter touchdowns last week, it’s the only time in Kansas City’s last six playoff games that there were more than 10 first-quarter points (one landed right on 10).
Then there’s this: Even including last week, the Chiefs have scored a total of 30 first-quarter points in their last nine playoff games (3.3 ppg). Total K.C. points in its last seven postseason games in front of the Arrowhead Stadium faithful: 20.
Yes, the Over looks enticing given the plethora of playmakers on both offenses. But it smells like a trap.
Kansas City Chiefs
The prop: 31.5 Total Points Scored
The odds: Over -110/Under -120
There’s a good chance you’re looking at this prop and summoning your best John McEnroe impression.
Didn’t the Chiefs just put up 42 points against the Bills … a week after putting up 42 against the Steelers? And didn’t they put up 48 and 36 in their previous two home games?
Yes, yes, and yes. And for that matter, Kansas City has tallied 31-plus points in six of its last seven games overall, averaging 37.3 points along the way.
So why is there juice to the Under here? Probably because the Chiefs fell a half-point short of this prop number in Cincinnati four weeks ago (34-31 loss). Also, the Bengals have held seven consecutive opponents under 32 points. Average points Cincinnati has surrendered during this stretch: 20.6 (that includes the 31 K.C. scored).
The Bengals’ D also has been stellar all season on the road, allowing an average of 16.9 points across nine games. Of course, none of those road opponents — Bears, Steelers, Lions, Ravens, Jets, Raiders, Broncos, Browns, and Titans — have a quarterback named Patrick Mahomes.
Exactly! And Kansas City beat this prop the last two years in the AFC Championship Game! True, but not by much (38 and 35 points). And don’t forget that in the 2019 title tilt, the Chiefs lost to the Patriots 34 to … 31.
Once again, the Over seems like the play here — and it might be. But it’s not exactly a stone-cold lock in the AFC Championship prop bets market.
Cincinnati Bengals
The prop: 2.5 Total Touchdowns Scored
The odds: Over -122/Under -106
With each hour that passes, Cincinnati’s upset of the Titans last week becomes more and more remarkable. How often do you see an underdog win a playoff game … on the road … when their quarterback gets sacked nine times … and the team produces one touchdown?
(We guess the answer to that question is: Every time the opposing team’s quarterback is Ryan Tannehill!)
All snide remarks aside, the Bengals’ offense has forgotten to pack its energy drinks during recent road trips. Since its bye in Week 10, Cincinnati has scored a total of eight touchdowns in its last four road games. Three came in Week 11 at the Raiders, and another was a defensive score in the regular-season finale at Cleveland. (Granted, Joe Burrow and most of the offense didn’t play in the latter contest.)
All that said, the Bengals still have tallied at least three touchdowns in 13 of 17 games in which Burrow has been under center.
What about the Chiefs’ defense? Since an impressive six-game midseason stretch in which no opponent scored more than two touchdowns — a span in which it yielded a total of 65 points — Kansas City has given up at least three TDs in five of the last six.
Kansas City Chiefs
The prop: Will the Chiefs score points in every quarter?
The odds: Yes -135/No -110
The Chiefs have spread the wealth during their insane seven-game scoring binge, collecting points in 26 of 28 quarters. And if you throw in overtime victories over the Chargers in Week 15 and Bills last week, K.C. has lit up the scoreboard in 28 of the last 30 stanzas.
But wait, there’s more: Since a Week 10 victory over the Raiders, the Chiefs have been blanked in a quarter just four times in their last 10 games — including the two OT contests, that’s 42 quarters!
Makes you wonder why there isn’t more juice to the Over on this prop, right? Well, one of those scoreless quarters occurred in Week 17 at Cincinnati — after putting up two touchdowns apiece in the first and second frames, Kansas City was blanked in the third. In fact, Patrick Mahomes and Co. managed one measly field goal in the final 30 minutes of that defeat.
The Bengals’ D pitched a shutout in three of eight quarters in these playoffs — the Raiders failed to score in the opening quarter in the wild-card round, while the Titans bageled in the first and fourth stanzas last week. What’s more, since an ugly 41-16 home loss to the Browns in Week 9, Cincinnati’s opponents have posted at least one scoreless quarter in 11 consecutive games.
Among AFC Championship prop bets, this offering has an unstoppable force-versus-immovable object feel to it. But given what happened to the Chiefs in the second half in Cincinnati — and given that the Steelers blanked K.C. in the opening quarter of their wild-card game — we’d lean ever-so-slightly to the “no” here.
Cincinnati Bengals Vs Kansas City Chiefs
The prop: First team to score points
The odds: Bengals +135/Chiefs -165
After allowing an early field goal against the Raiders two weeks ago, the Bengals got on the board first last week, turning a Tannehill interception on the game’s first play into three quick points. It was just the second time in the last five road games that Cincinnati delivered the first score.
Meanwhile, Kansas City’s penchant for falling behind early in playoff games has continued in this postseason. The Steelers scored first (courtesy of a defensive touchdown) two weeks ago, while the Bills took the opening kickoff and marched down the field for a TD last week.
With that, the Chiefs have now surrendered the first score in seven of their last nine playoff games (including six of seven at home).
Yes, K.C. did jump out to a swift 14-0 lead over the Bengals in Cincinnati earlier this month. But would be it be shocking to see the Chiefs once again come out a bit sluggish Sunday — perhaps with a bit of a lingering hangover after last week’s punch-counterpunch OT thriller? Not to us.
In this AFC Championship prop bets market, take the generous plus-money with Cincy, which desperately wants to deliver the first uppercut — not only to quiet the Arrowhead crowd but put the Chiefs on their heels. Really, the Bengals’ only shot of pulling off the upset is to play from ahead.
