With college football’s coaching carousel spinning at tornado-like speeds this week, you’ve probably asked yourself, “Geez — can’t anyone in this sport honor a commitment?”
The answer: Yes — we here at Props.com can. Unlike Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma and Brian Kelly at Notre Dame, we’re finishing the job we started back in early September, when we first unveiled our midweek College Football Betting Trends report.
Hot streaks, cold streaks, sides, totals — we’ve kept bettors updated on all the relevant college football betting trends involving FBS schools. Whether you’ve ridden moneymakers like Oklahoma State (9-1-1 ATS), Michigan (10-2 ATS), and Notre Dame (9-3 ATS) — or faded the likes of Indiana and New Mexico (both 1-10 ATS) — we hope you’ve been able to profit from this endeavor.
And we hope you will continue to profit, because we’ve got one more week of regular-season action before shifting gears to bowl season. This week, we’ll focus exclusively on the 10 conference championship games on the Week 13 college football betting board, providing trend details on each matchup.
As we’ve noted all season, the College Football Betting Trends report considers only FBS vs. FBS results.
All ATS and Over/Under stats are reflective of VegasInsider.com’s final consensus lines.
The Big Boys Get Ready To Rumble
Alabama vs. Georgia (SEC Championship): How dominant has top-ranked Georgia been this season? After an ugly season-opening 10-3 victory over Clemson, the Bulldogs won 11 consecutive games by at least 17 points. That includes eight wins by at least 27 points.
Since its “narrow” 30-13 victory over Kentucky in mid-October, Georgia beat its next four FBS opponents by a combined score of 163-30. And the Dawgs surrendered more than 13 points in a game just once all season (Tennessee put up 17).
Georgia has been just as impressive at the betting window, going 8-3 ATS, with the only non-covers coming as a favorite of 31.5, 22.5, and 40 points.
The Bulldogs head to Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite against Alabama, which is 11-1 SU but just 6-5 ATS in FBS vs. FBS matchups. The Crimson Tide have dropped three of their last four against the number.
Alabama is 8-4 to the Under, while Georgia has stayed low in six of its last seven games.
Iowa vs. Michigan (Big Ten Championship): Had Michigan held onto a 16-point second-half lead on Oct. 30 at Michigan State — a game the Wolverines lost 37-33 as a 4-point favorite — Jim Harbaugh’s squad would be on an 8-0 ATS tear. As it is, Michigan (10-2 ATS) is sitting side-by-side with Oklahoma State atop the point-spread mountain.
The Wolverines, who are 11-point favorites against Iowa, have won eight of 11 games by 15-plus points.
Iowa started the season 5-1 ATS but has cashed just twice in its last six games. The Hawkeyes are 2-1 ATS as an underdog, and both of their losses were double-digit blowouts (24-7 vs. Purdue; 27-7 at Wisconsin).
Choose Your Moneymaker
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State (Big 12 Championship): This may or may not end up being the most compelling conference championship matchup on the field, but it’s certainly the most compelling from a betting perspective. That’s because Oklahoma State and Baylor are a combined 16-5-1 ATS in FBS-specific games.
The Cowboys’ nine-game spread-covering streak came to an end last week against Oklahoma — well, sort of: OSU won 37-33, pushing as a 4-point favorite. The Cowboys, who are a 5.5-point favorite for this neutral-site clash in Dallas, are still 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10, while Baylor (7-4 ATS overall) has cashed in six of its last eight.
Oklahoma State took down the Bears 24-14 as a 4-point home chalk on Oct. 2, with the game staying Under the 47.5-point total. The Cowboys have stayed low in all five of their games away from home, while the Under is 4-1 in the Bears’ last five overall.
Oregon vs. Utah (Pac-12 Championship): While these teams obviously won their respective divisions, they finished in the middle of the Pac-12 ATS standings. Oregon went 6-5 ATS in FBS action, while Utah was 5-6.
Both teams at least finished strong at the betting window. The Ducks cashed in four of their last five following a 1-4 ATS start, while the Utes failed to cover in their first three FBS contests but enter this meeting on a 5-3 ATS upswing. Two weeks ago, Utah bludgeoned Oregon 38-7 as a 3-point home favorite, with the game staying Under the total.
The Utes, who are a 2.5-point chalk for this rematch in Las Vegas, started the season 8-2 to the Over, but the Under has hit in their last two. The total has alternated in Oregon’s last five games, with last Saturday’s 38-29 win against Oregon State going Over.
Bearcats, Cougars Break Out The Claws
Houston at Cincinnati (American Athletic Championship): Cincinnati joins Georgia as the nation’s only undefeated teams. However, the Bearcats rode a point-spread roller coaster along the way. Cincy started out 5-0 ATS in FBS action, failed to cash in its next four, then closed the regular season with consecutive spread covers.
The Bearcats, who are consensus 10.5-point home favorites against Houston, are 5-4 ATS as a double-digit chalk.
The Cougars are a middling 6-5 ATS in FBS-specific matchups, but have won 11 consecutive games since a season-opening 38-21 home loss to Texas Tech. Houston has been favored in every game but two: a 45-10 win as a 3.5-point underdog at Tulsa and a 44-37 victory over SMU in a pick ’em contest.
The Over is 7-3 in Houston’s last 10 (5-1 on the road), but the Under is 5-1 in the Bearcats’ last six.
Wake Forest vs. Pitt (ACC Championship): Pittsburgh is one of eight schools that is 8-3 ATS in FBS-specific contests, cashing in six of the last eight. The Panthers, who are laying 3 points in this neutral-site battle, also are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS away from home.
Wake Forest started the season 2-0-1 ATS but has split its last eight at the betting window. The Demon Deacons have alternated spread covers in their last five outings, most recently getting the cash in last week’s 41-10 rout of Boston College as a 6-point chalk.
Although Wake stayed Under the total against B.C., the Over is still 6-2 in its last eight games. The Over is also 7-4 in Pittsburgh’s games this season. In fact, the Deacons (42.9 points per game) and Panthers (42.8 ppg) rank third and fourth in the nation, respectively, in scoring offense.
Can Hilltoppers Do It Again?
Western Kentucky at Texas-San Antonio (Conference USA Championship): Like Pitt, Western Kentucky is 8-3 ATS and enters this one on a five-game spread-covering roll. The Hilltoppers were double-digit favorites in four of those games, while the other was last week’s 53-21 beatdown at Marshall in a pick ’em affair.
Conversely, Texas-San Antonio started the season 7-1 ATS but has since failed to cover in its last three (including last week’s 45-23 loss at North Texas as an 8.5-point chalk). The Roadrunners, who are a 3-point home underdog in this contest, are 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, while Western Kentucky is 4-2 ATS on the road.
Then again, UTSA went to Western Kentucky on Oct. 9 and departed with a 52-46 victory as a three-point pup. That game sailed Over the total, and the Over is 7-4 in the Hilltoppers’ FBS contests this season and 6-2 in the Roadrunners’ last eight overall. However, the Under is 4-1 in UTSA’s five FBS home games.
Utah State at San Diego State (Mountain West): San Diego State suffered just one SU defeat in the regular season, but the Aztecs were dead-even against the oddsmakers in FBS play, going 5-5-1 ATS (including 3-3 ATS at home).
SDSU entered last week’s showdown against Boise State mired in a 1-4-1 ATS funk but rallied for a 27-16 upset as a 3-point home dog. The Aztecs, who are laying 5.5 points in the title game, are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four as a favorite.
Utah State (7-4 ATS overall) followed up a 2-3 ATS start with a 5-1 ATS finish. The Aggies are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS on the road, the only non-cover being a 28-24 win at UNLV as a 7-point chalk. They’re also 4-2 SU and ATS as an underdog.
The Under is 6-3 in Utah State’s last nine (including 3-1 on the road), while the Aztecs have stayed low in six of their last eight (including three of four at home).
MAC-tion In The Motor City
Kent State vs. Northern Illinois (Mid-American Conference): Kent State enters this neutral-site game at Ford Field in Detroit on a 4-1 SU and ATS roll, including a wild 52-47 victory over Northern Illinois as a 3.5-point home favorite on Nov. 3.
The Golden Flashes, who are a consensus 3.5-point chalk in this rematch, are 5-2 ATS since failing to cover in their first four FBS games.
Northern Illinois went 6-4-1 ATS in FBS play, but the Huskies split their last six against the oddsmakers. Including the loss at Kent State, NIU went 4-2 ATS away from home. Conversely, the Flashes are 2-5 ATS on the highway.
The Huskies have hurdled the total in five of their last six, and Kent State has done the same in five of its last seven.
Appalachian State at Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt Conference): Appalachian State had its five-game ATS winning streak halted (barely) in last week’s 27-3 victory over Georgia Southern as a 24.5-point home favorite.
The Mountaineers still own a strong 8-4 ATS mark, cashing in four of their five road games. The lone exception: a 41-13 loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as a 4.5-point home chalk on Oct. 12. Despite that result, App State is a consensus 3-point road favorite this week.
The Ragin’ Cajuns opened the season with a 38-18 loss at Texas but have since ripped off 11 consecutive victories. However, they’re just 5-6 ATS in FBS contests (3-2 ATS at home). On the other hand, UL-Lafayette has pulled off outright upsets in its last two as an underdog, knocking off App State at home and Liberty on the road (42-14 as a 4.5-point pup).
The Under is 5-2 in the Mountaineers’ last seven and 8-3 for the Ragin’ Cajuns overall.
ATS Standings
Best:
Oklahoma State 9-1-1
Michigan 10-2
Notre Dame 9-3
UAB 8-3
Appalachian State 8-3
Michigan State 8-3
North Texas 8-3
Kentucky 8-3
Pittsburgh 8-3
Washington State 8-3
Western Kentucky 8-3
Worst:
Indiana 1-10
New Mexico 1-10
FIU 2-9
TCU 2-9
Temple 2-8
Stanford 3-9
(11 teams tied at 3-8)
Over/Under Standings
Over:
Louisiana Tech 8-3
Rice 8-3
Tennessee 8-3
Tulsa 8-3
Arkansas 7-4
FIU 7-4
Houston 7-4
Nevada 7-4
Pitt 7-4
Utah 7-4
Western Kentucky 7-4
Under:
Boise State 2-10
Penn State 2-9
Illinois 3-9
Ball State 3-8
FAU 3-8
UL Lafayette 3-8
Mississippi 3-8
New Mexico 3-8
Washington 3-8
