NFL Week 10 Odds: Public Piles On Rams In Clash Vs 49ers

UPDATE 1:30 A.M. ET MONDAY: Los Angeles is a 3.5-point favorite at TwinSpires Sportsbook, down a notch from the -4 opener. Sill, the Rams are attracting 78% of spread tickets and 70% of spread money. “The public is all over the Rams. We saw some sharp play on San Francisco +4,” TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total moved from 49 to 50, with 56% of tickets/74% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: In the Monday night game, WynnBet pegged Los Angeles a 4-point chalk at the outset and is now at -3.5. However, it’s all Rams on the spread, at 88% of tickets and 96% of money. The total opened and is currently at 49.5, with 55% of tickets/51% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: This is another matchup largely influenced by one major wager at Caesars: $520,000 on San Francisco +4. Los Angeles opened -3, peaked at -4.5 Monday, dropped to -3.5 in the wake of the big bet, and returned to -4 this evening. Ticket count is beyond 5/1 on the Rams, but almost all the early money — 95% — is on the 49ers, thanks to that half-million-dollar-plus play.

“I’m a little surprised that the Rams are getting so many of the tickets after losing in prime-time last weekend,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “I think the Niners are pretty live when they’re getting more than a field goal here. Everyone is down on them after they lost to the Cardinals with Colt McCoy, but last week is over. There should be no more surprising results in the NFL anymore, it’s just that crazy.”

The total quickly rose from 47 to 49.5 and has been at 49 since Tuesday morning.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Los Angeles opened as a 4.5-point road favorite at DraftKings for this Week 10 Monday nighter, just as it was kicking off its Week 9 Sunday nighter at home against Tennessee. That line eventually jumped to Rams -7, with the hosts losing outright 28-16. This week against San Francisco, the line has gone the opposite direction, dipping to Rams -4 Monday, then  to -3.5 Tuesday. However, the move is counter to the action, as L.A. is drawing 90% of early tickets/97% of early money. The total fell from 49.5 to 48.5, although the Over is netting 87% of tickets/76% of cash.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: San Francisco was in the same boat as Kansas City in Week 9, getting the fortunate break of facing a top-tier team minus its star quarterback. And like K.C., the 49ers (3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS) didn’t cover. Unlike K.C., San Fransisco didn’t even win, tumbling 31-17 as 5.5-point favorites against Kyler Murray-less Arizona.

Week 9 didn’t treat 7-point home chalk Los Angeles any better. The Rams (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) faced a Titans team minus stud RB Derrick Henry, trailed 21-3 at recess, and lost outright 28-16.

“We opened this game Rams -4 and closed it after the Titans-Rams night game kicked off,” Murray said, noting Rams-49ers will go back up Monday morning.

Prior to the Titans-Rams kickoff, Murray said he expected “the whole world [to be] on the Rams after that disastrous performance by the 49ers today.” With L.A. subsequently tumbling to Tennessee, bettors might change their mind. There was no movement on the line or total prior to Rams-49ers coming off the board.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Kansas City began the week at -3 (even) and is -3 (even) right now at WynnBet. The Chiefs are netting 59% of spread bets, but spread cash is almost dead even, and in fact with a slight Raiders lean at 51%. The total is at 52, with 59% of bets on the Under/65% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Caesars Sportsbook had Kansas City at -3 for about 30 minutes Sunday night, then moved to -2.5, where the line stuck all week. The Chiefs are seeing 60% of tickets, but the Raiders are taking 78% of money.

“It could end up with Chiefs at -3. It’ll depend on what happens in the early games and what the liability is,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “The Chiefs’ results this season don’t necessarily merit them being a road favorite against a good team, but they still have that attraction. People are just waiting for them to finally bust out. It’s a low spread too, so I think we’ll continue to see Chiefs money heading into the game.”

The total went from 51 to 52.5 to 52, all by Monday morning.

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Kansas City bounced between -2.5 and -3 a couple of times earlier in the week, then settled in at -2.5 (-115) Tuesday morning at DraftKings. The Chiefs are drawing a modest majority of tickets and cash on the spread, at 59% and 54%, respectively. The total rose from 51 to 52.5, then backed up to 51.5 by lunch hour Tuesday, with 70% of tickets on the Over and 81% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Kansas City (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS) clearly still hasn’t figured things out this season, yet is only a half-game out of first in the AFC West. In Week 9, the Chiefs couldn’t even cover against Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay, winning 13-7 as a 7-point favorite. With that non-cover, K.C. fell to a putrid 3-16-1 ATS over its last 19 regular-season and playoff games.

Earlier on Sunday, Las Vegas (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) went to Philadelphia as a 3-point fave and exited with a 23-16 outright loss, mustering just 3 points in the second half.

“There was a fair amount of discussion about where to open this game, with numbers ranging from the other side of 3 to just calling it a pick ’em and seeing what people do,” Murray said. “We still expect the public to back the Chiefs, but right now, they simply do not look like the team we all expected them to be. They look nothing like the team that came one OT loss away from representing the AFC in three consecutive Super Bowls.

“This should be a great handle game for us in Nevada. It’s going to be one of the best Sunday night games of the year in terms of betting interest.”

While the spread was stable tonight, the total rose a point to 50.5 within a few minutes of this game posting.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: WynnBet opened New England -2.5 (-120) and is now -2, with Cleveland getting 54% of spread tickets and the Patriots 70% of spread money. A Patriots cover is WynnBet’s second-largest NFL Week 10 liability at the moment. The total opened at 44.5 and is up to 45, with ticket count and money both beyond 2/1.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: New England dipped from -3 to -1.5 by Monday afternoon at Caesars Sportsbook, but rebounded to -2.5 Wednesday evening. That’s in part due to Cleveland running back Nick Chubb being ruled out due to COVID protocols. Point-spread ticket count is almost dead even, but the Patriots are taking a massive 94% of spread dollars, largely due to one big bet: $520,000 at New England -1.5. The total moved from 44.5 to 45.5 to 45.

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: New England hit DraftKings’ odds board as a 2.5-point chalk, then this line briefly flipped to Cleveland -1 a couple of times early in the week. It’s now Patriots -1.5, though the Browns are seeing 60% of tickets/57% of money on the spread. The total opened at 44.5, touched 45.5 a couple of times and is now 45, with 61% of bets on the Over, but money split 50/50.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Cleveland (5-4 SU and ATS) was a sharp play as a short ‘dog at Cincinnati in Week 9, and all the Browns did in that role was cover by 27 points. Baker Mayfield and Co. thumped the Bengals 41-16 catching 2 points on the road, bouncing back from a dismal 15-10 Week 8 home loss to Pittsburgh.

Meanwhile, New England (5-4 SU and ATS) just might have something going. The Patriots notched their third straight win and cover by routing Carolina 24-6 as 3.5-point road favorites.

In what could be one of the more compelling games on the NFL Week 10 odds board, The SuperBook gave the home team a nominal nod.

“We opened the Patriots -2.5, feeling that -3 was too high and would lead to wiseguy action coming in on Cleveland,” Murray said. “The Browns looked great today, but the Patriots also seem to be finding their form. This game could go a long way to deciding AFC wild-card playoff position.”

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Tennessee hit WynnBet’s odds board as a 3-point favorite and is currently -3 (even), while taking 79% of bets/60% of money on the spread. The total dipped from 45 to 43.5, with 71% of bets on the Over/66% of money on the Under.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Tennessee won’t have Derrick Henry for at least a few more weeks, if it’s lucky. New Orleans won’t have Alvin Kamara (knee) this week. But Kamara’s absence, made official today, did little to impact this line. The Titans have been 3-point favorites all week at Caesars, with only some juice adjustments thus far, and they’re currently -3 (-105). Tennessee is taking 67% of spread bets/59% of spread money. The total opened at 44.5, hit 45 for a few hours Monday, then dipped to 44 by this afternoon.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings has moved Tennessee from -2.5 to -3 a few times and is currently at -2.5. Ticket count is 3/1 Titans, but money is almost dead even, with a very slight lean to the Saints. The total opened at 44.5, shot up to 45, then down to 44, and is now back at the opener, with 84% of bets/59% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Tennessee didn’t have the services of NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry for the Week 9 Sunday night game against the Los Angeles Rams. Stunningly, it didn’t matter, as the Titans pulled a 28-16 upset as 7-point road underdogs. Tennessee (7-2 SU and ATS) has now won and covered five in a row, including four consecutive outright upsets and three road victories.

A week after posting an impressive upset home win over defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay, the Saints dug themselves into a 24-6 fourth-quarter deficit and couldn’t quite climb out against a nondescript Atlanta squad. New Orleans (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) rallied with 19 straight points to take a 25-24 lead with 1:01 remaining, but lost 27-25 on a final-seconds field goal.

“We opened the Titans -2.5 and closed it once the Sunday night game kicked off,” Murray said. “Bad loss for the Saints today, and we don’t know what to make of their current QB situation. This should be a decent two-way-write game that shouldn’t be a major decision for us either way.”

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Los Angeles opened at -2.5 (-120) and is now -3 at WynnBet. The Chargers are landing 61% of spread tickets and 73% of spread dollars. The total moved from 52 to 53 on two-way action, with the Over nabbing 53% of tickets/52% of money.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Los Angeles is yet another team that drew a $520,000 wager at Caesars books, doing so at -2.5 early in the week. The Chargers opened -3, spent most of the week there, and are currently -3 (-120). Ticket count is 4/1 on the Bolts, and with that one massive bet in play, practically every dollar is on L.A., as well. The total is up to 53.5 from a 51.5 opener.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Los Angeles opened -2.5 at DraftKings and stuck there until this afternoon, when it ticked up to -3. The Chargers are taking 69% of tickets and 56% of money on the spread. The total opened at 52.5, bottomed out at 51.5, peaked at 53.5 and is now 53 on wildly varied splits. The Under is getting 56% of bets, but the Over is nabbing 95% of dollars.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Los Angeles (5-3 SU and ATS) traveled to Philadelphia in Week 9 and kicked a field goal at the gun to beat the Eagles 27-24 as a 1.5-point road favorite. Earlier in the day, Minnesota (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) let a 24-10 second-half lead slip away at Baltimore, ultimately falling 34-31 in overtime but cashing as a 7-point road pup.

“Nobody can blow a two-TD lead quite like Mike Zimmer can. You almost expect it at this point,” Murray said of the Vikings coach’s shortcomings. “We still didn’t want to open this game with the Chargers a full 3-point favorite. There’s almost always wiseguy support for the underdog whenever the Chargers are a home favorite. I’m picturing nothing but purple in the crowd at Sofi Stadium on Sunday.”

The line and total didn’t move tonight.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: This game certainly got more interesting today on the news that Aaron Rodgers cleared COVID protocols and will play. Yet the line didn’t move much if at all at several books. Green Bay dropped from -5.5 to -3.5 during the week at WynnBet, mostly on the news that Seattle QB Russell Wilson will return Sunday after missing several weeks because of a broken finger. But the reciprocal Rodgers move hasn’t occurred, as the Packers remain -3.5 tonight.

Green Bay is getting a modest 59% of spread tickets and even more modest 52% of spread money. The total moved from 49.5 to 50.5, then back to 49.5 tonight, with 66% of tickets on the Under/59% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: For the moment, Green Bay is still the public play at Caesars Sportsbook, with bettors perhaps expecting (hoping?) that Aaron Rodgers gets cleared to play. The Packers dipped from -5.5 to -3, mostly on news that Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is definitely playing. But ticket count is 2/1 and money beyond 4/1 on the Pack. The total moved from 49 to 49.5 and back to 49.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Russell Wilson is good to go; Aaron Rodgers, we still don’t know. So the line movement reflects Seattle’s certainty rather than Green Bay’s fuzzy picture. DraftKings opened the Packers -5.5 and got as low as -3 Tuesday afternoon, then ticked up to -3.5. The Seahawks are landing 55% of spread bets and 67% of spread money. The total dipped from 49.5 to 49 Tuesday afternoon, though the Over is getting 72% of bets/86% of money.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Green Bay couldn’t overcome Aaron Rodgers being sidelined by COVID in Week 9, losing at Kansas City 13-7. But the Packers (7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS) scored a late TD to sneak through the backdoor and cash as a 7-point underdog. As a result, the Packers (8-0 ATS run) took over as the best spread-covering team in the league.

Seattle (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) gets the benefit of a Week 9 bye and hopes Russell Wilson (finger) can return after a three-game absence.

“We are proceeding as if Rodgers and Wilson both play. But it’s also possible neither plays,” Murray said. “We will be watching this game very closely. Maybe a sharp player will point us in the right direction. So far, nobody has bet the game in Nevada. I guess nobody knows what to do. I don’t blame them.”

Indeed, neither the line nor total shifted tonight.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Tampa Bay landed on DraftKings’ odds board as a 9.5-point chalk and made a couple of trips to -9, where the line stands now. But it’s practically all Bucs spread action, at 86% of bets/91% of cash. The total nudged from 51.5 to 51, with 74% of bets/54% of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Defending Super Bowl champ Tampa Bay (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) got a well-timed bye after its 36-27 Week 8 loss giving 4 points at New Orleans. Washington (2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS) is also off a bye and might just want to mail in the rest of this season.

The line and total were stable tonight at The SuperBook.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Buffalo is down to an 11.5-point favorite at DraftKings after opening -13 on Sunday night. The Bills are getting 60% of spread bets and 76% of spread money. The total quickly fell from 48.5 to 47.5, then to 47 today before ticking up to 47.5. The Under is getting 58% of bets and the Over 61% of money.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Prior to kickoff Sunday, Buffalo was the favorite on the Super Bowl odds board. Then the Bills (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) inexplicably produced just two field goals against one-win Jacksonville, losing 9-6 as 14.5-point road favorites.

After a big Week 8 upset of Cincinnati, New York came back to earth in the Week 9 Thursday nighter at Indianapolis. The Jets trailed 42-10 midway through the third quarter, before making it semi-respectable, losing 45-30 as 10-point ‘dogs.

The SuperBook held firm on the opening line and total tonight.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The Cardinals moved from -10 to -10.5, then tonight slid back to the -10 opener at WynnBet. Still, Arizona is laying double digits despite QB Kyler Murray (ankle) and wideout DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) being game-time decisions. The Cards are drawing 67% of bets and the Panthers 54% of money on the spread. The total is at 44 from a 44.5 opener, although 81% of bets/93% of dollars are on the Over.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Arizona opened -10 at DraftKings, dipped to -9.5 a couple of times and is now up to -10.5. The Cardinals are taking a modest majority 57% of tickets, but that’s translating to 75% of cash on the spread. The total moved from 45.5 to 44 to 44.5, with 89% of tickets on the Over/53% of cash on the Under.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Arizona may well be the best team in the NFL. The Cardinals have the league’s best record (8-1 SU) and are no slouch for bettors either (7-2 ATS). In Week 9, without quarterback Kyler Murray and top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, the Cards coasted to a 31-17 victory catching 5.5 points at San Francisco.

Carolina’s 3-0 SU and ATS start is now a distant memory. The Panthers (4-5 SU and ATS) managed just two second-quarter field goals in a 24-6 home loss as 3.5-point home ‘dogs to New England.

The line was stable tonight, but The SuperBook lowered the total to 44.5.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Dallas opened and is currently -9 at WynnBet, where Atlanta is actually taking 56% of bets and 59% of money. The total rose from 52 to 54.5, with 59% of bets and a hefty 93% of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings this morning moved Dallas from -8.5 to -8 after opening at -9 Sunday night. The Cowboys are seeing 56% of bets but more than 80% of money on the spread. The total shot from 52 to 55 by Tuesday morning, then stabilized at 54.5 Tuesday afternoon, with 57% of bets on the Under/73% of money on the Over.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Despite having QB Dak Prescott back under center after a week off, Dallas matched Buffalo for least-inspiring Week 9 honors. The Cowboys (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS) gave up the first 30 points against visiting Denver and lost 30-16 laying 10 points.

Meanwhile, Atlanta (4-4 SU and ATS) went to New Orleans as a 6.5-point pup and blew a big second-half lead before rallying for a 27-25 victory on a final-seconds field goal.

Bettors apparently didn’t put much stock in either result, as the Cowboys crept up to -9, while the total rose to 52 tonight at The SuperBook.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Indianapolis is another Week 10 double-digit favorite, currently -10 at DraftKings after opening -10.5. The Colts are netting 58% of spread tickets and 76% of spread money. The total hasn’t budged off 47.5, with 57% of tickets and money on the Under.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Indianapolis (4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS) is still sub-.500, but has won three of its last four SU and five of six ATS. And the only loss was in overtime to red-hot Tennessee in Week 8. The Colts rebounded from that setback, dumping the Jets 45-30 on Thursday night as a 10-point home chalk.

Jacksonville (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) notched the biggest upset of the season in Week 9, ugly as it looked, knocking off first-place Buffalo 9-6 as 14.5-point underdogs in a game that featured zero touchdowns.

This line dipped about an hour after posting tonight, with The SuperBook dropping the Colts to -10. The total was stable.

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Detroit hasn’t won a game this season, but one high roller thinks the Lions can at least cover in this spot. Caesars Sportsbook opened this contest at Steelers -9.5, took a $520,000 bet on Lions +9, and is now at Steelers -8. The Lions are taking 70% of early spread tickets and pretty much every early dollar, due to that one wager. The total dipped from 44 to 42.5 by midweek.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Pittsburgh is now an 8-point chalk at DraftKings, down from a -9 opener and a high of -9.5. The Lions are actually getting 54% of spread tickets, but the Steelers are taking 65% of spread money. The total dropped from 44 to 42 and is now 42.5, with the Under drawing 62% of bets/80% of cash.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Pittsburgh (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) has won three in a row, but still has Week 9 work to do, hosting Chicago in the Monday nighter. Detroit (0-8 SU, 4-4 ATS) didn’t lose in Week 9, but only because it had a bye. And even then, it was close.

Neither the line nor total moved tonight.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Denver is down to -1.5 from a -2.5 opener at WynnBet, where 63% of tickets are on the Broncos, but 56% of money is on the Eagles. The total nudged from 45.5 to 45, though the Over is taking 69% of tickets/72% of money.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: DraftKings moved Denver from -2.5 to -3 a couple of times early, then stabilized at -3 Tuesday afternoon. Philadelphia is getting the bulk of attention at 60% of tickets and 80% of money on the spread. The total bounced around a bit, from 44.5 to 45, down to 44, and now back to 45. The Over is grabbing 73% of tickets and a hefty 96% of money thus far.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The second-biggest shocker of Week 9 after Jacksonville’s stunner against the Bills? That would have to be Denver, which raced out to a 30-0 lead at Dallas on the way to a 30-16 victory as a 10-point road underdog. The Broncos (5-4 SU and ATS) have won consecutive games after an 0-3 SU and ATS slump.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) drew a lot of sharp action in Week 9, but that action didn’t pay off, as the Eagles fell 27-24 to the Chargers as a 1.5-point home underdog.

The Eagles-Broncos line was unchanged Sunday night, while the total jumped to 45 at The SuperBook.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: The first game of Week 10 has Baltimore a 7.5-point favorite at DraftKings, up from a low point of -6.5 and opener of -7. It’s all Ravens on spread betting, at 86% of tickets and 88% of dollars for the Thursday night game. The total opened at 47 and has been at 46.5 since Monday, with 61% of bets on the Over and money running almost dead even.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Baltimore (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) twice trailed by two touchdowns against Minnesota in Week 9, the second time after giving up a touchdown on the second-half kickoff. But the Ravens rallied to force overtime, then won 34-31 but failed to cash as 7-point faves.

Miami (2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) snapped a seven-game slide by fending off similarly hapless Houston 17-9 as a 4-point home favorite.

It’s a short week, as these teams meet Thursday night.

“We opened the Ravens -6.5 and were quickly bet up to Ravens -7,” Murray said. “Another hard-fought battle for Baltimore today, coming back from two TDs down in the second half and winning in overtime.

“The public will be all over the Ravens in this spot, with betting similar to the Panthers-Texans Thursday night game we saw early in the season. Teasers and moneyline parlays galore starting with Baltimore.”

In addition to the Ravens moving up a half-point on the spread, the total ticked up a notch to 47.5.